Spring training is on their way with less than 3 weeks left until the jays home opener.
To serious fans it's time to evaluate the farm system as well as project the 24 man roster. To everyone else it's a reminder that winter is almost over no matter how cold it still is outside.
Some like to over react to players' performances in the spring and either get their hopes up for the season or get ready to trade in their jersey for a leafs or this year a raptors jersey. But I'm here to warn people away from the annual over reaction. Like the players, the fans have some off season rust to work through from a viewers stand point.
Here are a few tips on how and what to watch for this grapefruit league.
Tip #1 - Nothing matters.
Okay maybe this is extreme but realistically a player can have a great spring and not make a big league club. Rosters are determined based on career performance, health and how much money a team has invested in you.
Baseball, more than any sport rewards consistency and if you've shown you can perform at the majors you will have an edge over any break out performance in March. Top prospects are paid big dollars to sign with a team when they're drafted in the first round. Call it stubborn, call it wanting a return on investment or call it arrogance to prove to the world they were right to draft that player, either way top picks are going to get more than their share of game time to show what they can do.
Really the only chance a player not previously on a big league roster has to make the club is with an injury to another player.
So with that, that whittles spring training down to approx 30 players that have a shot at heading north at the end of March.
For the rest, they are playing for experience and to make a team one beef grade higher than last year.
So, on to the big question. Out of the players with a legit chance, what do we look for to predict who's going to have a break out year and who are we going to see on the discount jersey rack?
For this I'll break it down into pitchers and hitters. Fielding isn't even considered in spring unless a guy can't throw from third to first. Might raise a flag or two.
Pitchers.
ERA, WHIP, xFIP, all those regular season stats, throw them out. Reason being, everything we know about pitching doesn't apply. In spring, pitchers are working towards the start of the season by building arm strength and stamina. To do this, they typically start by throwing mostly fastballs and slowly work their other pitches in as the spring goes on, saves on arm strain before the season. As a result in a game their pitch selection is completely different. You will see fastballs when a breaking ball should be thrown and vice versa. Thus all those stats that take into account hits and base runners are useless. Similarly, location and pitch selection don't really matter. Since starters throw 2 innings they can't officially get the win (wins don't count anyway), so changing speeds and location to get a batter out are not primary concerns. All a pitcher and catcher want to do is hit a certain pitch count and build chemistry for the season.
Now in saying all this, there are two key things to look for in performances as a gauge on how a player might perform come season opener.
#1. Velocity - even though above I mention pitchers are using the spring to build arm strength, they should be coming into spring with reasonable pop to their fastball. Any pitcher with big league potential should be throwing 88-91 to start the spring. As the weeks go on they gradually build to low to mid 90s. If your starting pitcher is throwing 86, that's cause for concern. Could be an injury, or lack of a full recovery from a previous injury.
Roy Halladay is a perfect example. The now retired pitcher went from top of his game to retired in 2 years. A dramatic drop in arm speed and power made him unable to pitch at the major league level. A guy who relied on throwing strikes to get guys out could no longer do that.
#2. Location - Control is always a key indicator. The entire minor league system is filled with guys who have "good stuff" or potential. Often you'll hear that a young pitcher can throw but needs to learn how to pitch. This refers to location and pitch selection. A 100 mph is no more effective than a 50 mph pitch if it's a ball (Nuke Laloosh anyone?). In addition if you can't throw strikes hitters are going to sit up there and wait for you to either walk them or throw a fastball right down the middle.
Another reason why control is so important as it indicates that a pitcher is able to repeat their delivery and everything is in sync. Pitchers with the longest careers are because they are able to do this. Buerhle is able to avoid injury because he can repeat his pitches over and over. His body works together and he avoids over straining his arm. Also it's no secret that strikes are the effective way to pitch. Keep pitch counts low and keep hitters guessing.
Speaking of hitters, brings us to how to evaluate a hitter's performance in the spring.
Hitters.
Frankly there is a lot less to evaluate here. Reason being, it's hard to judge hitting when you know they aren't facing pitcher's best stuff and frankly the majority of pitchers they are facing will not make the trip north in April.
The main goalof a hitter is to get their timing. Readjust after the off season to not only major league speed but also picking up the ball from a pitcher's delivery, something you can't practice with a pitching machine.
It's also for this reason I think taking walks is useless. You're not there to practice trotting down first but to swing. When Frank Thomas was playing he new how many swings he needed to get to form, not how many pitches he saw or at bats, but swings.
So you can see how player's are doing with their timing look at a few of the following.
1. Swinging strikes. - if a player is swinging and missing a lot he's obviously not reading pitches well. Not picking up location, break or just way off timing ahead or behind.
2. Balls in play - we are looking for hitters to be swinging and making contact. Ground balls and fly balls don't really make a difference but you do want to see line drives. That means they are right on top of the pitch and timing is right so they are getting power behind it.
3. Spray chart - It's always great to see hitter's using the whole field and showing power the other way, but be aware for a hitter going the opposite way too much. This could be that they are behind on the ball and swinging defensively. In the regular season we love a player who hits for average and gets on base or advances runners, but in spring we want to see aggressive hitting. If they are defensive now, it doesn't bode well when they are facing mid to high 90s in a clutch situation.
One more thing to note. Hitters returning to form after an injury or a noticeable improvement in areas of weakness. Two examples, Bautista's power and drive through the ball. Sure sign he's feeling healthy and taking the approach at the plate that's made him a premier power hitter in the game. And Lawrie's calm yet aggressive approach. Often criticized for being too aggressive and emotional, new hitting coach seems to have him going contact first and using he's physical strength to generate power, not swinging for the fences but letting weight, momentum and power through the hips carry the ball out and your hands and bat focus on contacting the ball.
So with this, you can now review the Jays stats and decide how you feel about the team ahead of the opener. I personally think they are going to be streaky and show signs of greatness, hopefully more than 11 games of it this year. But I think they will struggle when things get tough. Prediction roughly .500 with potential upside of finishing high 80s in wins.
Enjoy the spring and see you all in April.
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