1.
Boston Red Sox – (Last Week 2)
The BoSox find themselves back atop the power rankings
thanks to a 5 game winning streak and leading the division by 2.5 games over
the Yankees. After ending last
week dropping 2 of 3 to the KC Royals, the Red Sox bounced back taking 2 of 3
against the A’s and then sweeping the Houston Astros. The only thing keeping the Red Sox down right now is they
have had the easiest schedule to date in the East and they are still only 6-6
against teams that are .500 or better.
I still expect this team to falter and come back to the pack a bit but
in the mean time they are playing well and deserve the #1 spot. Over the last seven days they lead the
AL in runs, Avg, and SLG% and were second in OBP.
If there is a weakness, it seems to be in plate
discipline. Red Sox had the 4th
highest strike out rate at 22.6% which was the worst in the division, but this
has been a consistent issue for the Red Sox throughout the season, but it
hasn’t slowed down their overall offense to date.
What’s Gone Right – Their pitching staff lead by Jon Lester
and Clay Bucholz who are a combined 9-0 in 10 starts with an average ERA of
1.73. As a team they are first in
wins, 3rd in ERA, 1st in strike outs. The only two categories they rank
outside of the top 5, complete games (6th) and walks (13th).
2. New York Yankees – (Last Week 1)
If I write every week that Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay
can’t sustain this pace, then eventually I’ll be right. It’s double or nothing, and who’s
really going to take that bet? We all know it’s true.
Not too much to say about the Yankees, in fact they are 7-3
in the last 10 but their last 4 wins came against the Jays and in all 4 of
those games they came from behind and the Yankees pulled out their secret
weapon the shortest front porch in baseball and home run alley. Saw Hafner hit a 3 run homer to tie a
game that barely cleared the right field wall, and then saw Overbay hit a go
ahead 2 run home run in the 7th in the series final for a 3-2 win
that again was a right field aided shot.
But the Yankees are more aware of their stadium then anyone else and
they have built their team around.
Left handed heavy lineup that leads the league in Home runs,
3rd lowest strike out rate, and pitching staff that has the 4th
highest ground rate and the 3rd lowest walk rate. But these are tangible stats that can
change week to week and are as much dependent on their opponents as it is on
the team. What keeps the Yanks in
the top 2 aside from these stats is the fact that they consistently win. The Yankees win with players they
aren’t supposed to. They win with
veterans when everyone else is stocking up on prospects and they win because
they know what winning is and they know what players can get it done, and for
all these reasons I dislike them.
3.
Baltimore Orioles – (Last Week 3)
O’s stand 3rd in the division 3 games back of
first and a half game back of the 2nd place Yankees. I actually had
the O’s ranked second because frankly, this team is a great young roster with
loads of potential and despite everyone expecting a drop off from their playoff
season last year, it just hasn’t happened. But then I started compiling stats and frankly the stats don’t
support their record. Offensively
over the last 7 days, they were 2nd in the AL in runs, 1st
in stolen bases, 4th lowest strike out rate (best in the
division). Outside of these, they
don’t lead the league in many pitching or hitting categories, but they are also
aren’t last in many of them. They
are playing consistent all around ball.
Where they do excel is defense. Opponents have the lowest batting average on balls in play
(BABIP), they’ve turned the 2nd most double plays in the league, 3rd
fewest errors, and they have the fewest stolen bases against. When the infield gets a chance to make
a play they make it, the one negative is that they have the 3rd
lowest ground ball % in the AL.
Playing in the AL East they play in some of the most hitter friendly
parks in the league and over the course of a full season, fly balls will start
turning into home runs. They have
a great defense, they better make sure they get them ball or else this early
success will quickly get away from them.
4.
Tampa Bay Rays – (Last Week 4)
Rays are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and look to have
righted the ship. The only reason
they aren’t gaining ground in the division is that every other team in the
division (not the Jays) also went 7-3.
Highlight of this last week for them taking 2 of 3 against the Yankees
to help climb back to 1 game below .500.
Best news is that the starting pitching is on track to where it was
expected to be before the season started.
Rays starters lead the league in innings pitched over the last week, 4th
in K/9, and the 4th best BB/9.
Lead by Matt Moore who along with Boston’s Buchholz are the early Cy
Young front runners, is 5-0 with a 1.13 ERA and a 10.69 K/9 rate. Rays not surprisingly lead the league
in IP by starters this season on the other hand Jays and the Astros lead in IP
by relief pitchers.
They still struggle offensively middle of the road average
and OBP and high strike out rate, but they did see an increase in runs scored
ranking 4th in the league this week. I don’t think their head coach (the old man from UP) will
really care how they are getting their runs as long as they are getting enough
to win, and with their pitching you don’t need that many.
Final note, the Rays have the 3rd best home record in the AL, apparently having the worst home field is advantage. Maybe it sucks the life out of their opponents, the idea that they have to be inside to watch a sport in Florida and it's not hockey. Mystifying that's a dome in the state that hosts outdoor baseball in the winter.
5.
Toronto Blue Jays – (Last Week 5)
Hitting and poor fielding continue to lose games for the
Jays. The latest a 4 game sweep at
the hands of the Yankees, more specifically the hands of Vernon Wells and Lyle
Overbay. It was bad enough when
those guys were helping us lose games when they were on the team, now they are
doing it as members of the hated New York Yankees.
Maybe this lineup just isn’t as good as what we thought were
going to get. Sure, they are still
signs of improvement.
1. They had the lead in all 4 games against the Yanks,
2. They made Hughes throw 111 pitches fouling off 25
pitches. Extending at bats is the
best way to wear down pitchers until they make a mistake. But ultimately what should be have
expected or what should be expect from this lineup?
Let’s look at our core hitters.
Arencibia and Rasmus are striking out at a rate of once for
every 2+ at bats, and both are striking out at a rate of double the MLB
average. Bautista is fairing a bit
better at a K every 4 ABs and a rate that’s 4% higher than the league average.
And their career numbers aren’t that much better. Arencibia 3.2 AB/SO at a SO% of 29.2%, Rasmus 3.8 and 23.8%
and Bautista 4.4 and 19.20%.
The fact that these guys also all hit above the league
average in home runs is great, but you just can’t have this many high strikeout
rates on a team. No wonder the
Jays only score in a couple innings a game, the rest of the game they are
striking out. It’s like Joaquin
Phoenix in Signs, just feels wrong not to swing, only these guys made it to the
Majors and aren’t fighting Aliens.
Additionally, these 5 players aren’t exactly known for
having high averages. Cabrera has
the highest career average at .283 but this includes his numbers from last year
on steroids and who knows what other years. Here’s how they rank for career batting average.
|
Cabrera
|
0.283
|
|
Arencibia
|
0.274
|
|
Encarnacion
|
0.263
|
|
Bautista
|
0.251
|
|
Rasmus
|
0.242
|
In the end there just isn’t balance on this team. You need to have your players that get
on base so that your power hitters can drive them home. At the moment, everyone is swinging for
the fences and Toronto is looking more and more like Mudville.
*
|
Player
|
Year
|
PA
|
HR%
|
SO%
|
AB/SO
|
|
JP
Arencibia
|
2013
|
96
|
8.30%
|
38.50%
|
2.5
|
|
|
4 Yrs
|
991
|
5.20%
|
29.20%
|
3.2
|
|
|
MLB Averages
|
|
2.50%
|
19.00%
|
4.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Colby
Rasmus
|
2013
|
83
|
4.80%
|
43.40%
|
2.1
|
|
|
5 Yrs
|
2288
|
3.50%
|
23.80%
|
3.8
|
|
|
MLB Averages
|
|
2.60%
|
18.80%
|
4.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jose
Bautista
|
2013
|
78
|
9.00%
|
21.80%
|
4.1
|
|
|
10 Yrs
|
3853
|
4.90%
|
19.20%
|
4.4
|
|
|
MLB Averages
|
|
2.70%
|
17.80%
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edwin
Encarnacion
|
2013
|
105
|
6.70%
|
16.20%
|
5.5
|
|
|
9 Yrs
|
3827
|
4.30%
|
16.80%
|
5.3
|
|
|
MLB Averages
|
|
2.60%
|
17.90%
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Melky
Cabrera
|
2013
|
109
|
0.00%
|
12.80%
|
7.1
|
|
|
9 Yrs
|
3973
|
1.70%
|
12.10%
|
7.5
|
|
|
MLB Averages
|
|
2.60%
|
17.90%
|
5
|
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