This could the hardest power rankings to do to date, with the AL East standings a log jam it's hard to really separate the teams. With the help of nerdy stats and prejudice against my AL East rivals, below are the rankings as I want them.
#1. Tampa Bay Rays (Season Prediction #1)
A lot has been made about the Rays lack of offense through the first month of the season, but don't look now, they have actually scored the most runs of any team in the AL East, have had the hardest schedule to date (15 of 18 games were against teams .500 or better), and icing on the cake they are 4-0 in 1 run games, a crucial stat for a team that relies on pitching.
The only reluctance to having Tampa retain the #1 spot is they lost their 2nd best pitcher for the season. Matt Moore has undergone Tommy John and will be out for the entire 2014 season. Tampa has great depth at pitching, but relying on such a young rotation already losing Moore who's really young himself was looked to to be an anchor behind Price.
#2. Boston Red Sox (Season Prediction # 3)
Red Sox sit last in the AL East but are still 8-10 through the end of Saturday and only 2 games back of first place. They have certainly gotten off to a much worse start than expected with a team average of .235 (3rd worst in the AL) and 22% strike out rate (5th highest in the AL), they are lucky to only be 2 games back. Along with Tampa, they have had the hardest schedule of any AL East team. As mentioned in the predictions, the knock on the Red Sox is their key players are all one year older. This could be a reason for their slow start, but if they can hang in the pack, watch out for when they heat up.
What's keeping them in the hunt is pitching. Best xFIP in the AL at 3.4, lowest BB/9 2.5 (league average 3.4), 2nd highest IP from starters in the AL East and 2nd highest K total from starters in the AL. Jon Lester is leading the rotation and you would expect that Bucholz to be right behind him, but it's Jake Peavy carrying the load as Bucholz has the highest ERA of the starters and the lowest IPs.
Red Sox could go either way this year but for now I will say that they are staying close and once they are firing on all cylinders, they should be competing for top spot.
#3. New York Yankees (Season Prediction #4)
I had the Yankees ranked 4th to start the season as I questioned their pitching staff and how well the big off season over haul would work. Well their starters lead the AL in IPs, wins by starters, Ks, lowest walks by starters. In addition big off season signing Jacoby Ellsbury is having a huge start .365/.414/.476. The power hasn't been there with only 6 extra base hits, but he does have 8 SBs. Add his OBP and power from McCann, Beltran, Kelly Johnson and Soriano (combined 14 HRs) and 2nd highest team avg in the AL, not surprised they find themselves on top of the AL East standings.
Better than expected pitching, production from new signings, why aren't they ranked higher? There is still too much uncertainty.
1. Every other team in the AL East is playing poor baseball.
2. They've had the easiest schedule to date
3. Worst SRS (run differential + strength of schedule) in the AL East
4. Relying on production from unproven sources.
I'll expand on #4. Their rotation is being carried by import Tanaka who looks to be the real deal but won't be able to say for sure until opponents get to face him for a second and 3rd time and have a scouting report, plus it's too early to tell if he'll adjust well to the North American schedule (I think he will and lead the team in wins). They are also getting quality pitching from Michael Pineda who hasn't pitched in 2 years because of injuries, again too early to see if he's finally the pitcher they thought they were getting from Seattle. Regular staples in the rotation Sabathia and Kuroda are off to rough starts. Sabathia boasting a 5.19 ERA and opponents average of .269. If this team wants to continue to lead the division it's going to have to come from more than Pineda and Tanaka. Not to mention Nova has a partially torn ligament in his arm not that they are going to miss his 8.27 ERA but it still leaves them scrambling to find a replacement.
#4. Toronto Blue Jays (Season Prediction #5)
The Jays move one spot up this week from where I had them in the preseason. As a Jays fan this is going to be an emotional roller coaster of a season. As predicted they are hovering around the .500 mark but it's how they are winning and losing that really has them see sawing in the power rankings.
Biggest question coming into the year was starting pitching or lack there of. They have 8 of their 10 wins from starters (2nd highest in the AL) best ERA of any AL East team, 2nd best K/9, and the lowest HR/9 of any team in the AL. That's the good, now the bad. 6th worst xFIP (ie they are getting great defense), only have 103.2 IP from their starters through 19 games. Their starters although not giving up runs also aren't going deep into games (averaging 5.4 innings/start). They once again are relying heavily on a bull pen. Only difference this year is that they are leaving the game with leads and not down 7 runs. But they have the second highest IPs and BBs from relievers. They are on pace to burn out their bull pen like last year. What's even more concerning, they are carrying 3 catchers and what seems like an endless supply of middle infielders, if they can free up some roster spots and fill those with some bull pen help it will take pressure off the current cast. We've already seen two games this week get blown by the bullpen, they need help.
Offensively, the team is having similar issues to 2013. 4th lowest team batting average (one better than Boston), 5th lowest OBP. What's improved is their strike out rate 6th lowest in the AL. Thanks to much better plate discipline. 2013 Jays hitters swung at 30.5% of pitches out of the strike zone (8th worst in the AL) compared to 24.9% in 2014, good for 3rd lowest. If they keep this up, pitchers will be forced to throw strikes and when they do, the jays make contact on 88.1% of strikes thrown. With a team of this much offensive talent/ability the best thing they can do is make sure they aren't letting pitchers off the hook by swinging at balls. If they keep this up, average and OBP will go up and so will their spot in the rankings. For now, we will have to hang in with tight games and hope our bull pen can stay strong until the offense gets better. Meanwhile I'll try to not lose my mind and my hair when the bullpen blows the next lead, it's not totally their fault.
If the season ended today would Buehrle win the Cy Young?
#5. Baltimore Orioles (Season Prediction #2)
Most predictions had the Orioles taking a real step back this year and finishing at the bottom of the division. They are certainly playing to prove them right. They are not out of it by any means, sitting at 8-9 through their first 17 games and are tied with Tampa Bay 2 games back. Difference between Tampa and Boston, Baltimore has had the 2nd easiest schedule in the East.
This is a team who's strength will be power in their lineup, but their bats have started slow. 3rd lowest plate appearances in the AL, 6th highest K%, worst BB/K ratio, 3rd lowest OBP. They've scored 66 runs so far this season or 3.88/game. But that includes a 14 run game against NY, otherwise they drop to 3.25 runs/game. Meanwhile their pitching is giving up 3.97 ERA.
Bright spots, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton have given the team a chance with some great pitching, but will take more than 1 starter and 1 reliever to compete in the tough AL East. Chris Tillman boasts an era 1.71, yet the team's starters ERA is 4.53. No other starter is below 4.4 ERA. They have a combined 97.1 IPs from their starters 2nd lowest in the AL and only 5 wins (also second lowest). To add salt to the wound, off season acquisition Ubaldo Jiminez has been the worst pitcher on the staff, posting an ERA over 6 through 21 IPs.
Luckily for them it appears no team in the East wants to win the division so they are still in it, but if they don't sort out their issues early, all the experts will be right and they will be well behind the pack in the playoff race.
Well it's been an unusually slow start for AL East teams, which makes this hard to write but great as a Jays fan who right now I'm happy they aren't out of contention by the end of April like 2013. Only 1 team has a winning record against teams .500 or better and that's Baltimore, the worst statistical team of the bunch. I think that sums up how interestingly weird the start of the season has been.
Sunday, 20 April 2014
Tuesday, 8 April 2014
2014 AL East Power Rankings - Day 1
Baseball season is officially started, so before we get too many games in and I get accused of cheating, here are the first power rankings of the season from Section 525.
Last year, i think i tried to compile some educated guess based on 2012 stats and preseason numbers. This year, I'm going to scour the internet for predictions and list them all right here and provide my own. As well as some key pieces of info for each team in the AL East.
Prediction #1 Courtesy of Fangraphs.com
90-72
Record 86-76
#5. Toronto Blue Jays
Key addition: Dioner Navarro
Key losses: J.P. Arencibia, Rajai Davis
This is going to be pretty straight forward. 2013 record 74-88. Now look above at what the Jays did in the offseason to improve to compared to all the other teams in the AL East that were already better than them. It's tough to believe they will do better.
Offensively their core is intact with Bautista, and Encarnacion power the way with 40 hr potential. Add a rejuvinated and healthy Melky Cabrera and hopefully hittin coach Kevin Seitzer can the most out of Brett Lawrie to give the Jays a threatening 2-5 among the best in the AL.
Finding depth and consistency will be the name of the game for this team. Last year, newly acquired players did not produce. When all of your off season acquisitions fail to produce you are no doubt going to finish last. I don't realistically believe that this will happen again. Dickey should return to something closer resembling his 2012 form, even 75% of his Cy Youn form should help the team. Addition to Melky being healthy should see him return to form.
Pitching is still a big question mark as the team failed to sign any of the pitchers they pursued in the offseason. Add to that, last year's #2 man Morrow had terrible spring and looks like he's hurt even if they won't admit it, and legitimately they do not have a 5th starter. Drew Hutchinson will be the most interesting start. After an impressive debut in 2012, he then had Tommy John surgery and ended his 2013 campaign. I think he has the most potential of any pitcher in the rotation and was lights out in spring (19ks, 4 BB) and I've predicted to have the most wins of any Jays starter at the All Star break. To sum up pitching, their biggest off season acquisition was Roy Halladay who signed a 1 day deal to retire, but until now (hope I'm proven wrong) is better than any 5th starter we can field at the moment.
One weakness, lack of pitching depth. Pitching won't win enough games for the team and they will once again rely on an inconsistent offense to win games. This and they once again are relying on injury prone Reyes and McGowan to provide much needed depth.
Saying all this i'm still predicting a record of 86-76
Last year, i think i tried to compile some educated guess based on 2012 stats and preseason numbers. This year, I'm going to scour the internet for predictions and list them all right here and provide my own. As well as some key pieces of info for each team in the AL East.
Prediction #1 Courtesy of Fangraphs.com
| 2014 Projected Full Season | ||||||
| Team | W | L | W% | RDif | RS/G | RA/G |
| Red Sox | 88 | 74 | 0.541 | 62 | 4.53 | 4.15 |
| Rays | 86 | 76 | 0.53 | 43 | 4.18 | 3.91 |
| Yankees | 83 | 79 | 0.511 | 17 | 4.36 | 4.26 |
| Blue Jays | 82 | 80 | 0.508 | 12 | 4.53 | 4.46 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 0.483 | -26 | 4.4 | 4.55 |
Prediction #2 Courtesy of Sports Illustrated
SI.com had 6 baseball writers pick the division winner and wild card.
#1. Tampa Bay Rays - 4 of 6 first place votes
#2. Boston Red Sox - 2 of 6 first place votes
#3. New York Yankees - 2 of 6 wild card votes
Prediction #3 Courtesy of Grantland.com
1. Tampa Bay Rays: 91-71
2. Boston Red Sox: 89-73
3. New York Yankees: 84-78
4. Baltimore Orioles: 81-81
5. Toronto Blue Jays: 78-84
2. Boston Red Sox: 89-73
3. New York Yankees: 84-78
4. Baltimore Orioles: 81-81
5. Toronto Blue Jays: 78-84
Prediction #4 Courtesy of Yahoo Sports
Yahoo actually has two staff writers that each made predictions
| Writer 1 | Writer 2 | |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | |
| Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | |
| New York Yanks | Baltimore Orioles | |
| Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | |
| Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yanks |
As you can see all but Fangraphs is predicting the Rays to win the AL East, but Fangraphs has used the most statistical analysis in their predictions, but I think it's clear who's the top teams going into the season.
On to my predictions.
#1. Tampay Bay Rays
Key additions: Grant Balfour, Heath Bell
Key losses: Sam Fuld, Kelly Johnson, Jose Lobaton, Fernando Rodney, Alex Torres
No surprise here and not just based on the above predictions. Last year they were my prediction to take the top spot and it was based on pitching. This year is no different.
Rays finished last season 2nd in the east in wins (65) and IP (965.1) by starting pitchers.
Last years rotation Price, Cobb, Moore, Hellickson with Chris Archer and Roberto Hernandez taking the majority of the 5th starts. This year's starting rotation Price, Cobb, Moore, Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi. All pitchers that started games for the team last year and the most solid returning top 3 pitchers outside of Detroit. If you thought they were good this year, Cobb is no longer a rookie and you have a full season of Chris Archer who in 23 career starts has 10 wins and averages over 7 k/9. If that's not enough, they have strengthed their bull pen with the return of Grant Balfour as closer and former NL closer Heath Bell.
One weakness, offense. In 2013 Rays were fourth in the AL East in runs scored, only ahead of the Yankees. They will be looking for a break out year from Wil Myers to prove he was worth the trade to KC for James Shields.
92-70
92-70
#2. Baltimore Orioles.
Key additions: Nelson Cruz, Ubaldo Jimenez
Key losses: Scott Feldman, Jason Hammel, Jim Johnson, Nate McLouth, Michael Morse, Brian Roberts, Francisco Rodriguez, Danny Valencia
Most people will say the Orioles have no business being in the 2 spot in the rankings. But this is my hunch pick of the season. Stats don't really support it and now there is a prediction called steamer that predicts ace Chris Tillman will drop from his 16 wins in 2013 to 14 in 2014. But I think he is a legit ace to lead the rotation in his 3rd season.
Offensively is their strength with 2013 HR champ Chris Davis in the 3 hole ahead of Adam Jones. Add newly acquired Nelson Cruz and home run threat Matt Wieters in a home run friendly park and you have a tough lineup to pitch against day in and day out.
One weakness, lack on depth. In Tillman gets hurt and that is not out of the question (threw the 7th most pitches out of AL starters in just his 2nd season), they will be turning to the likes of Zach Britton who's back in the bullpen following a missed season to injuries and then prospects Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy.
90-72
#3. Boston Red Sox
Key additions: A.J. Pierzynski, Grady Sizemore, Chris Capuano,
Key losses: Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Yes they won world series despite most people not expecting to even make the playoffs, and yes they were the best team in the AL all year. But I think all the does is give every other team hope that having the best team paper only counts on paper.
The starting rotation which was so strong last year will have to be even better in 2014. The biggest question is can Jake Peavy and John Lackey provide the depth in their rotation and provide 10+ wins each. We know their bull pen is strong, but without starting depth, that bullpen will get tired out no matter how good they are.
Offensively they still have a roster of good hitters that see a lot of pitchers and know how to get on base. They lead the AL in runs, 2nd in hits, 2nd in BB. But they are missing a key player to free agency when they lost lead off hitter Jacoby Ellsbury. Question will be, can Will Middlebrooks fill some of the void.
One weakness, age. Although they still have Ortiz, Napoli, Victorino, and most of their starting rotation from their championship team, their core players are all one year older and are the 2nd oldest team in baseball. How much is left in the tank of 38 year old Ortiz and 35 year old John Lackey. I was surprised to find that Victorino was only 33, he looks at least 47.
Record 86-76
#4. New York Yankees
Key additions: Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Brian Roberts, Masahiro Tanaka
Key losses: Robinson Cano, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Alex Rodriguez (suspension)
Key losses: Robinson Cano, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Alex Rodriguez (suspension)
Yankees do what they always do, following a losing season go out and sign the highest profile free agents they can. One of the big roster turnovers in MLB this season has the Yankees poised to regain its championship form or go right to the bottom of the standings as is often the case with season over season over hauls.
The loss of Robinson Cano will be the biggest felt to the team (27 HR, 107 RBI in 2013), but his offense should be replaced by newly acquired Jacoby Ellsbury (52 SB, .298 in 2013). Who in a park that is very friendly to left handed hitters gives Ellsbury a legit shot at returning to his 2011 numbers of 32 hr, 105 RBI, and 39 SB. Even if the home runs don't increase, additions of Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann should fill the gaps. In addition they will be formidable on the base paths with 30 30 man Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. Speed can cause headaches for opposing defenses and open up holes in the infield for hitters.
Increased offense might be necessary if the Yankees want to have a chance to compete with their current rotation. The Yankee's rotation consists of 33 year old CC Sabathia entering his 13th season, rookie import Masahiro Tanaka, and Michael Pineda who hasn't pitched since 2011. Sabathia although only 33 feels older and has diminshed velocity. If he cannot handle the workload he usually does, could see Yankee's turn to their bullpen that has been weakened by offseason moves. Tanaka who signed the largest deal for an import player since Darvish is yet to prove if he's the next Darvish (29 wins in 2 seasons) or Daisuke Matsuzaka (only 26 starts since 2011). Credit to Daisuke, he like Darvish had 33 wins through his first two seasons, so the lengthy 7 year deal to Tanaka could have a short shelf life.
One weakness, if not pitching, it's defense. The outfield is solid with speed from Ellsbury and Gardner but the infield is the opposite. Aging shortstop Derek Jeter has had reduced range at shortstop over the last couple season, but again loss of Cano leaves a whole at 2nd base. Brian Roberts was brought in to replace him on defense but that for sure won't last and he hasn't started more than 77 games since 2009.
Record 79-83
The loss of Robinson Cano will be the biggest felt to the team (27 HR, 107 RBI in 2013), but his offense should be replaced by newly acquired Jacoby Ellsbury (52 SB, .298 in 2013). Who in a park that is very friendly to left handed hitters gives Ellsbury a legit shot at returning to his 2011 numbers of 32 hr, 105 RBI, and 39 SB. Even if the home runs don't increase, additions of Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann should fill the gaps. In addition they will be formidable on the base paths with 30 30 man Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. Speed can cause headaches for opposing defenses and open up holes in the infield for hitters.
Increased offense might be necessary if the Yankees want to have a chance to compete with their current rotation. The Yankee's rotation consists of 33 year old CC Sabathia entering his 13th season, rookie import Masahiro Tanaka, and Michael Pineda who hasn't pitched since 2011. Sabathia although only 33 feels older and has diminshed velocity. If he cannot handle the workload he usually does, could see Yankee's turn to their bullpen that has been weakened by offseason moves. Tanaka who signed the largest deal for an import player since Darvish is yet to prove if he's the next Darvish (29 wins in 2 seasons) or Daisuke Matsuzaka (only 26 starts since 2011). Credit to Daisuke, he like Darvish had 33 wins through his first two seasons, so the lengthy 7 year deal to Tanaka could have a short shelf life.
One weakness, if not pitching, it's defense. The outfield is solid with speed from Ellsbury and Gardner but the infield is the opposite. Aging shortstop Derek Jeter has had reduced range at shortstop over the last couple season, but again loss of Cano leaves a whole at 2nd base. Brian Roberts was brought in to replace him on defense but that for sure won't last and he hasn't started more than 77 games since 2009.
Record 79-83
#5. Toronto Blue Jays
Key addition: Dioner Navarro
Key losses: J.P. Arencibia, Rajai Davis
This is going to be pretty straight forward. 2013 record 74-88. Now look above at what the Jays did in the offseason to improve to compared to all the other teams in the AL East that were already better than them. It's tough to believe they will do better.
Offensively their core is intact with Bautista, and Encarnacion power the way with 40 hr potential. Add a rejuvinated and healthy Melky Cabrera and hopefully hittin coach Kevin Seitzer can the most out of Brett Lawrie to give the Jays a threatening 2-5 among the best in the AL.
Finding depth and consistency will be the name of the game for this team. Last year, newly acquired players did not produce. When all of your off season acquisitions fail to produce you are no doubt going to finish last. I don't realistically believe that this will happen again. Dickey should return to something closer resembling his 2012 form, even 75% of his Cy Youn form should help the team. Addition to Melky being healthy should see him return to form.
Pitching is still a big question mark as the team failed to sign any of the pitchers they pursued in the offseason. Add to that, last year's #2 man Morrow had terrible spring and looks like he's hurt even if they won't admit it, and legitimately they do not have a 5th starter. Drew Hutchinson will be the most interesting start. After an impressive debut in 2012, he then had Tommy John surgery and ended his 2013 campaign. I think he has the most potential of any pitcher in the rotation and was lights out in spring (19ks, 4 BB) and I've predicted to have the most wins of any Jays starter at the All Star break. To sum up pitching, their biggest off season acquisition was Roy Halladay who signed a 1 day deal to retire, but until now (hope I'm proven wrong) is better than any 5th starter we can field at the moment.
One weakness, lack of pitching depth. Pitching won't win enough games for the team and they will once again rely on an inconsistent offense to win games. This and they once again are relying on injury prone Reyes and McGowan to provide much needed depth.
Saying all this i'm still predicting a record of 86-76
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