Let me start by saying that these playoffs are shaping up to be fantastic. If game 2 and game 5 of the Oakland/Detroit series aren't enough (Verlander is a machine), then because my round 1 power rankings were pretty spot on.
Let's recap.
Round 1 Rankings Advanced
#1 - Boston Red Sox
#2 - St. Louis Cardinals
#3 - Detroit Tigers
#5 - Los Angeles Dodgers
Only top 4 team to not make it through the divisional
round, Tampa Bay Rays and they lost to the #1 seed, so not too bad. But
I will stop tooting my own horn, an act not uncommon to people who
watch, analyze and write too much about baseball.
In comparison, the MLB rankings based on the regular season record saw #1 Boston, #1A St. Louis, #6 Detroit, #7 Los Angeles go through.
So without further ado, the League Championship Series rankings and predictions.
Format will be a different, I'm going to analyze and predict the outcomes and will keep the seeds the same as round 1.
American League
#1 Boston Red Sox vs. #3 Detroit Tigers
This is going to be a great match up and very even. Both teams feature great shut down #1 and #2 starters and both feature lineups that can pose problems to pitchers through out the lineup.
Pitching: If the match ups were to be perfect, it would be Lester vs Scherzer and Verlander vs Bucholz and the advantage would go to Detroit. As the temperature drops hard throwing pitchers that run the ball inside on the hands are a hitter's worst nightmare. However, because Detroit had to go to a deciding game 5 and used Verlander for 8 magical innings, the match up is not perfect. Using Scherzer and Verlander twice means that we won't/shouldn't see them make an appearance until game 3. That means that they won't have enough time to rest and come back to make a 2nd appearance in the series. At best maybe see one of them start game 7 and the other make a relief appearance. Boston on the other hand can counter with Lester and Bucholz in game #1 and #2 and again #6, #7.
Advantage: Boston
Saving Grace for Detroit - their pitching depth is stronger. More likely to get a great start out of Sanchez or Fister than Boston is from Lackey or Peavy.
Hitting: Both teams bring great lineups to the plate. Boston and Detroit ranked #2 & #3 respectively in team average in round 1. Both teams had 38 hits (Boston played 1 less game) and Boston outscored Detroit 26-17 again in one less game played. If that's not enough, Boston leads the postseason in stolen bases. In a series that promises to feature great pitching, runners and runs will be at a premium and the ability to move runners into scoring position becomes even more valuable.
Advantage: Boston
Saving Grace for Detroit - Their power hitters get to enjoy a much more hitter's friendly park at Fenway and Fielder should see more success with Fenway's short porch in right field. They also have Cabrera and even injured, he's still one of the best hitters in the game.
Boston gets the advantage in hitting and although Detroit has a better starting rotation, they get an advantage with Detroit having to use their aces twice.
Prediction: Boston in 7
(disclaimer: I'm writing this while Sanchez just finished 6 no hit innings)
National League
#2 St. Louis vs #5 Los Angeles
Let's start with a mock headline "Wacha, Wacha, St. Louis is warm and Fozzie about Michael Wacha's postseason"
Pitching: St. Louis was a close #2 seed in round 1 power rankings to the Red Sox. But after round 1, they might deserve to be the #1 seed. What prevented me from giving them the #1 seed was questions around their pitching depth. Those are all but erased after seeing what Michael Wacha has been able to do so far, and Wainright has delivered as promised as an ace as good as anyone in the post season. Had I written this before the series started like a responsible and professional columnist, I would give the pitching nod to LA. But instead I'm a lazy, occasional blogger and I'm writing after game 2 has finished. They say hindsight is 20/20 and 20/20 vision is wicked, trust me I have it, and I'm going to use it here to give the pitching nod to St. Louis.
Not just because they won the first two games, but they did it against Greinke and Kershaw and without using Wainright and it's not like Greinke and Kershaw had bad outings. They had a combined 14 IP, 6 hits, 15 SO, 2 ER. If you get two starts of that calibre and you lose both games, you are in a bigger hole than 2-0. You are down 2-0 and with the question, how much better can you play? Not to mention St. Louis has the best ERA of any team through the divisional round.
Looking back I would have saved Kershaw for game 3. Even if you lose game 2 without him and are down 2-0, at least you are heading home with the best pitcher in the NL starting for you and giving you a legit shot against Wainright. Now you are down 2-0 and turn to either Capuano or Ryu. Neither pitched more than 3 IP and Ryu got hit hard giving up 12 earned runs in his only start.
Advantage: St. Louis
Hitting: LA lead the divisional round in team average at .333, mean while St. Louis was second last with .209. They faired much better at OBP with LA posting 2nd best .390 and St. Louis posting a 4th best .294 thanks in part to St. Louis walking 17 times (2nd only to Boston's 20). But the playoff rederick is, it's not the number of hits you get, it's when you get them and St. Louis is as clutch a team as anyone in October. Despite the low average, St. Louis was still 3rd in runs scored.
Despite St. Louis being the most clutch hitting team in the playoffs, LA leads in all major hitting categories and you have to hope that over a best of 7, they will get their chances and put up some runs.
Advantage: LA
Overall, with St. Louis up 2-0 and beating Greinke and Kershaw in the process, and Beltran showing no signs of slowing down as one of the best postseason players in history, I just don't see how LA can come back. At this point, I can only hope the rest of the series is as entertaining as the first two games.
Prediction: St. Louis in 5
That's it, enjoy the Championship Series and if you don't have a loyalty to any team, please just cheer for me to be right. It will make future readings better when you can trust that I know what I'm talking about.
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