Let me start by saying that these playoffs are shaping up to be fantastic. If game 2 and game 5 of the Oakland/Detroit series aren't enough (Verlander is a machine), then because my round 1 power rankings were pretty spot on.
Let's recap.
Round 1 Rankings Advanced
#1 - Boston Red Sox
#2 - St. Louis Cardinals
#3 - Detroit Tigers
#5 - Los Angeles Dodgers
Only top 4 team to not make it through the divisional
round, Tampa Bay Rays and they lost to the #1 seed, so not too bad. But
I will stop tooting my own horn, an act not uncommon to people who
watch, analyze and write too much about baseball.
In comparison, the MLB rankings based on the regular season record saw #1 Boston, #1A St. Louis, #6 Detroit, #7 Los Angeles go through.
So without further ado, the League Championship Series rankings and predictions.
Format will be a different, I'm going to analyze and predict the outcomes and will keep the seeds the same as round 1.
American League
#1 Boston Red Sox vs. #3 Detroit Tigers
This is going to be a great match up and very even. Both teams feature great shut down #1 and #2 starters and both feature lineups that can pose problems to pitchers through out the lineup.
Pitching: If the match ups were to be perfect, it would be Lester vs Scherzer and Verlander vs Bucholz and the advantage would go to Detroit. As the temperature drops hard throwing pitchers that run the ball inside on the hands are a hitter's worst nightmare. However, because Detroit had to go to a deciding game 5 and used Verlander for 8 magical innings, the match up is not perfect. Using Scherzer and Verlander twice means that we won't/shouldn't see them make an appearance until game 3. That means that they won't have enough time to rest and come back to make a 2nd appearance in the series. At best maybe see one of them start game 7 and the other make a relief appearance. Boston on the other hand can counter with Lester and Bucholz in game #1 and #2 and again #6, #7.
Advantage: Boston
Saving Grace for Detroit - their pitching depth is stronger. More likely to get a great start out of Sanchez or Fister than Boston is from Lackey or Peavy.
Hitting: Both teams bring great lineups to the plate. Boston and Detroit ranked #2 & #3 respectively in team average in round 1. Both teams had 38 hits (Boston played 1 less game) and Boston outscored Detroit 26-17 again in one less game played. If that's not enough, Boston leads the postseason in stolen bases. In a series that promises to feature great pitching, runners and runs will be at a premium and the ability to move runners into scoring position becomes even more valuable.
Advantage: Boston
Saving Grace for Detroit - Their power hitters get to enjoy a much more hitter's friendly park at Fenway and Fielder should see more success with Fenway's short porch in right field. They also have Cabrera and even injured, he's still one of the best hitters in the game.
Boston gets the advantage in hitting and although Detroit has a better starting rotation, they get an advantage with Detroit having to use their aces twice.
Prediction: Boston in 7
(disclaimer: I'm writing this while Sanchez just finished 6 no hit innings)
National League
#2 St. Louis vs #5 Los Angeles
Let's start with a mock headline "Wacha, Wacha, St. Louis is warm and Fozzie about Michael Wacha's postseason"
Pitching: St. Louis was a close #2 seed in round 1 power rankings to the Red Sox. But after round 1, they might deserve to be the #1 seed. What prevented me from giving them the #1 seed was questions around their pitching depth. Those are all but erased after seeing what Michael Wacha has been able to do so far, and Wainright has delivered as promised as an ace as good as anyone in the post season. Had I written this before the series started like a responsible and professional columnist, I would give the pitching nod to LA. But instead I'm a lazy, occasional blogger and I'm writing after game 2 has finished. They say hindsight is 20/20 and 20/20 vision is wicked, trust me I have it, and I'm going to use it here to give the pitching nod to St. Louis.
Not just because they won the first two games, but they did it against Greinke and Kershaw and without using Wainright and it's not like Greinke and Kershaw had bad outings. They had a combined 14 IP, 6 hits, 15 SO, 2 ER. If you get two starts of that calibre and you lose both games, you are in a bigger hole than 2-0. You are down 2-0 and with the question, how much better can you play? Not to mention St. Louis has the best ERA of any team through the divisional round.
Looking back I would have saved Kershaw for game 3. Even if you lose game 2 without him and are down 2-0, at least you are heading home with the best pitcher in the NL starting for you and giving you a legit shot against Wainright. Now you are down 2-0 and turn to either Capuano or Ryu. Neither pitched more than 3 IP and Ryu got hit hard giving up 12 earned runs in his only start.
Advantage: St. Louis
Hitting: LA lead the divisional round in team average at .333, mean while St. Louis was second last with .209. They faired much better at OBP with LA posting 2nd best .390 and St. Louis posting a 4th best .294 thanks in part to St. Louis walking 17 times (2nd only to Boston's 20). But the playoff rederick is, it's not the number of hits you get, it's when you get them and St. Louis is as clutch a team as anyone in October. Despite the low average, St. Louis was still 3rd in runs scored.
Despite St. Louis being the most clutch hitting team in the playoffs, LA leads in all major hitting categories and you have to hope that over a best of 7, they will get their chances and put up some runs.
Advantage: LA
Overall, with St. Louis up 2-0 and beating Greinke and Kershaw in the process, and Beltran showing no signs of slowing down as one of the best postseason players in history, I just don't see how LA can come back. At this point, I can only hope the rest of the series is as entertaining as the first two games.
Prediction: St. Louis in 5
That's it, enjoy the Championship Series and if you don't have a loyalty to any team, please just cheer for me to be right. It will make future readings better when you can trust that I know what I'm talking about.
Saturday, 12 October 2013
Friday, 4 October 2013
MLB Playoffs Power Rankings
Here it is, the first of 3 installments in MLB Playoff power rankings. I will make a new entry for each round.
First round are the 4 division series. For the record I'm not counting the play in games since I don't believe in them, but that's for another entry.
#1 - Boston Red Sox
This was a close one between St. Louis and Boston and it pains me to be ranking Boston as anything else other than garbage, but given the circumstances, I have no choice.
Despite the first few games that have been blowouts, playoffs always comes down to pitching. Boston's 1&2 starters, Lester and Bucholz have been as good as anybody in the league. What gives them the #1 overall? Consistency. They have been solid all year long. It does beg the question how well can they face adversity? But they have the intangible that no other team has and arguably the greatest weapon against adversity, Fenway Park.
Boston will no doubt have the biggest home field/crowd advantage in the playoffs.
1 negative - they might have the worst manager when it comes to crunch time and making those big decisions with the bull pen.
#2. St. Louis Cardinals
If finishing with the best record in the NL isn't enough and if winning 2013's best division in baseball isn't enough, then they have history on their side.
Cardinals are third all time in word series appearances with 18, including 11 wins, most recently 2011 and 2006 and experience pays off. Their lineup features hitters that understand that playoffs are about pitching and getting that one key hit a game. Just remember game 6 in the 2011 World Series.
Hitting wise they have more than their share of previous playoff heroes, whether it's David Freese or Carlos Beltran. And they look poised to step up again. Beltran is already getting named possibly the greatest playoff hitter of all time.
1 negative - compared to the rest of the teams, their pitching lacks depth. Adam Wainwright is a legit ace and can matchup against anyone, but the drop off from #1 to #2 is a question mark. Lance Lynn gave up 7 hits in 4.1 innings in game 2. Starting in game 3 is Joe Kelly. Who posted an impressive 2.69 era this year in 37 appearances. But he'll be starting against Liriano in Pittsburgh. PNC park in the play in game has been the best crowd we've seen so far. Can't wait to see this. If Kelly has a great start, they deserve this ranking. If he struggles, we could be poised for a first round upset.
#3 Detroit Tigers
This is a no brainer. Despite limping into the playoffs and only winning the AL Central by 1 game they boast the best 1, 2 combo in both pitching and hitting. Don't need to say much here, Justin Verlander is their #2. A Cy Young award winner and arguably the best pitcher in baseball did not start game 1. Instead it was Max Scherzer who finished the season 21 - 3 and at one point was 19-1. I don't think any kid has even claimed a record that good on the playground.
Hitting wise, well they have Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder not to mention Victor Martinez and Omar Infante who was a .280 hitter himself. That's a gauntlet to go through every 2 or 3 innings.
#4 Tampa Bay Rays
Call this a gut instinct, but pitching wins championships and the Rays have maybe the best starting rotation in baseball. Watching David Price in the tie breaker he sure looked like the pitcher of this year's playoffs who pitches on 3 days rest every time, there's one ever year. Alex Cobb had a great playoff start battling in a must win game on the road. You aren't going to have your best stuff every night but if you can win without it, you are looking good.
Tampa not known for offense has Evan Longoria and now Delmon Young who could become the unsung hero if Tampa can make it out of this round. Could be this year's David Freese or Cody Ross.
1 negative - they are playing Boston in Boston and outside of David Price, they don't have a pitcher to shut down lefties. Matt Moore was to be that guy but didn't show it in game 1. They also might have a weak bullpen. Rodney is not trustworthy on a good day.
This is getting long, should have just made predictions.
#5 LA Dodgers
This was a tough one because I really feel that the remaining teams are all very close. They all have a great #1 pitcher and some solid bats in the lineup. What they lack is depth in the rotation and they are all very young. In fact young pitching is a theme in this year's playoffs. But out of these remaining teams, dodgers have the best pitcher (Kershaw) and a well balanced lineup. Plus they have Puig who is only going to be more dynamic on a big stage. Biggest question mark, how will Greinke do? He's a great pitcher but outside of his one start with the Brewers he has no post season experience and struggled in game 2.
1 negative - momentum. They went on amazing run at one point they were 42-8 spanning just before the all-star break on. But they finished 5-5 over their last 10. Did they peak too soon?
#6 Pittsbugh Pirates
Who isn't cheering for the Pirates at this point? Unless you have loyalties to one of the 7 other teams (I hope you don't) you are jumping on this enormous band wagon.
Lineup with McCutchen, Alvarez, Martin and Morneau, it's impossible to cheer against them. Burnett maybe as a jays fan but that's about it. And that crowd? Forget about it. They way they rattled Cueto was amazing, can't remember ever seeing a pitcher so obviously affected as that.
Finally Gerrit Cole. Legit prospect and if he can have another start the way he did, he could be this year's Josh Beckett. 2003 Josh Beckett, when he broke onto the scene in the playoffs not Josh Beckett 2008 on.
1 negative - no experience. It can lead to losing your focus and making mistakes. We've seen this lead to them fading down the stretch in previous years. Hope the veterans on the team can lead them through it.
Side note, Morneau went from #33 with the twins because of Patrick Roy to #66 with the Pirates. Can't argue with that.
#7 Atlanta Braves
Outside of Tampa, the Braves are the best organization at producing young pitchers. Mike Minor looked great in his first start and they have maybe the best closer in tight games with Kimbrel. But who's going to be their ace that they throw out on short rest? And the bigger question, where are the bats?
Through 2 games there is more talk about Elliot Johnson being in place of Dan Uggla than talk about heroes. If the Uptons and Freeman don't step up, the streak of not winning a playoff series since 2001 will continue.
Blame the Sports Illustrated cover curse for the Upton's lack of production. Hope it doesn't get to Kate too.
#8 Oakland Athletics's
Every year they are a great story and prove that SABR metrics are real. What's not real is their chance to win the World Series.
Bartolo Colon is not a great match up if he's going to have to out pitch any other team's #1 or #2 pitchers. Cespedes become a household name at the home run derby but they will need more than that from a guy who hit .240 this year.
Their roster is good enough to win the west when you get to play Seattle and Houston and over 162 games OBP does pay off. But in a hyper concentrated month of ball when your opponents are only the best remaining teams, it's hard to produce the same way. This is why their regular season success hasn't been matched by post season wins.
That's it for the division series. Can't wait until round 2 when there's half the teams to write about and I get to back peddle on the ones I was wrong about.
Wednesday, 2 October 2013
Rush - movies about sports count as sports
Just saw Rush starring young Austrian Niki Lauda and a young Brit, James Hunt both played by actors.
In one sentence if I told you in this movie you would see F1 cars (the car equivalent of a jet), boobs, and gruesome injuries, you would run faster to the theater than Forrest Gump running like the wind blows.
In reality this movie has all of those things, but struggles to use them in a way that makes you leave the theater thinking you just watched the greatest racing movie of all time. Walking out, I felt more like E seeing the first cut of Medellin. You know there's a good movie in there if only they weren't jumping shot to shot every 5 seconds.
Ron Howard fails to create a real sense of rivalry between the two drivers and fails even more at visualizing how talented these two were at their craft. In what seems as an attempt to always find the most artistically beautiful shot, you don't get any high speed, high danger sensations from the driving scenes. No scene or sequence lasts long enough to build suspense, and they make passing look like the easiest thing to do in F1.
Best way to sum this up is pros vs. Cons.
Pros
- Imagery looks great
- Writing is good. They don't over burdened you with over the top lines you might expect from a racing movie
- Contrast in character's personality is well displayed
- There is at least one scene that makes you feel sick
Cons
- Poor editing
- Nikki Lauda is made out to be an ass hole when really he's a racing legend. And now there is a driver's meeting before every race where driver's can voice their opinion on safety concerns. He pretty much started that.
- By the way Mario Andretti was a world champ and a great driver way to only drop his name a few times in the movie.
- No sense of timing, how long is a race? How far back are drivers from one another.
To summarize, if you're a big F1 fan and want an F1 movie, don't expect it. If you want a fast paced movie with lots of beautiful images and clever writing, and intriguing characters (most people do) you will enjoy this thoroughly. I would have shot the racing scenes in a time frame that more realistically depicts how hard races are and how patient you have to be to gain and pass other drivers, this is what made Nikki Lauda so good. Ultimately it just failed to build suspense that not only a great racing movie deserves but also the one that the real life story deserves.
I give it 2.5 tires out of 4.
Tuesday, 24 September 2013
Clarkson, 10 game suspension was it worth it?
Yes!
Does missing 10 games hurt the leafs and Clarkson, yes, but in the long run the intangibles gained from Clarkson jumping on he ice are worth more than the games.
Clarkson instantly has gained respect of everyone on the team. He goes from the high priced free agent who has everything to prove to a guy who now everyone will play for and with.
Throughout the season you hear at nausea about team chemistry on and off the ice. It can make the difference in playing 82 games and playing 98+ games. The leafs just got locker room chemistry in one shot.
I think fans under appreciate how hard it is to break into a new dressing room. To be a high priced free agent who gets paid more than your #1 goalie, more than you 80+ point leading scorer and franchise player for the last 3 years and only slightly less than your #1 defensemen and captain can make for an uncomfortable start. Plus pressure from the coach and GM to prove they made the right move. It's on you to adapt and make yourself part of the team. Remember when you entered your first dressing room? You knew maybe a couple of faces from school, wanted to be one of the cool kids and not have other players make fun of you. Didn't want to be an outsider, especially if they had played together before. All the while you have the fear of pissing your pants during your first game. Okay maybe that doesn't all apply, but admit it, you've been there.
And let's face it, the first 10 games off the season probably mean more to the fans and media than they do to the standings. And with the condensed schedule due to the olympic break it's even less of impact in terms of the calendar.
In addition, Clarkson wasn't brought in to be a play maker or a goal scorer, his career stats can attest to that. He was brought in to be an all round player who can bring a physical edge to the position. One thing the leafs lacked depth in compared to the Bruins. These types of players usually need less time to develop on ice chemistry with line mates than a Kadri or a Kessel would.
So in the end, it's the way you finish not the way you start, and David Clarkson has now become a guy that the Maple Leafs can trust will be there forchis team when it matters most.
Monday, 29 April 2013
AL East Power Rankings – Week 4
The AL East gets tougher and tougher with all but one team going 7-3 over their last 10 games. Guess which team is the lone one out of the winning parade.
1.
Boston Red Sox – (Last Week 2)
The BoSox find themselves back atop the power rankings
thanks to a 5 game winning streak and leading the division by 2.5 games over
the Yankees. After ending last
week dropping 2 of 3 to the KC Royals, the Red Sox bounced back taking 2 of 3
against the A’s and then sweeping the Houston Astros. The only thing keeping the Red Sox down right now is they
have had the easiest schedule to date in the East and they are still only 6-6
against teams that are .500 or better.
I still expect this team to falter and come back to the pack a bit but
in the mean time they are playing well and deserve the #1 spot. Over the last seven days they lead the
AL in runs, Avg, and SLG% and were second in OBP.
If there is a weakness, it seems to be in plate
discipline. Red Sox had the 4th
highest strike out rate at 22.6% which was the worst in the division, but this
has been a consistent issue for the Red Sox throughout the season, but it
hasn’t slowed down their overall offense to date.
What’s Gone Right – Their pitching staff lead by Jon Lester
and Clay Bucholz who are a combined 9-0 in 10 starts with an average ERA of
1.73. As a team they are first in
wins, 3rd in ERA, 1st in strike outs. The only two categories they rank
outside of the top 5, complete games (6th) and walks (13th).
2. New York Yankees – (Last Week 1)
If I write every week that Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay
can’t sustain this pace, then eventually I’ll be right. It’s double or nothing, and who’s
really going to take that bet? We all know it’s true.
Not too much to say about the Yankees, in fact they are 7-3
in the last 10 but their last 4 wins came against the Jays and in all 4 of
those games they came from behind and the Yankees pulled out their secret
weapon the shortest front porch in baseball and home run alley. Saw Hafner hit a 3 run homer to tie a
game that barely cleared the right field wall, and then saw Overbay hit a go
ahead 2 run home run in the 7th in the series final for a 3-2 win
that again was a right field aided shot.
But the Yankees are more aware of their stadium then anyone else and
they have built their team around.
Left handed heavy lineup that leads the league in Home runs,
3rd lowest strike out rate, and pitching staff that has the 4th
highest ground rate and the 3rd lowest walk rate. But these are tangible stats that can
change week to week and are as much dependent on their opponents as it is on
the team. What keeps the Yanks in
the top 2 aside from these stats is the fact that they consistently win. The Yankees win with players they
aren’t supposed to. They win with
veterans when everyone else is stocking up on prospects and they win because
they know what winning is and they know what players can get it done, and for
all these reasons I dislike them.
3.
Baltimore Orioles – (Last Week 3)
O’s stand 3rd in the division 3 games back of
first and a half game back of the 2nd place Yankees. I actually had
the O’s ranked second because frankly, this team is a great young roster with
loads of potential and despite everyone expecting a drop off from their playoff
season last year, it just hasn’t happened. But then I started compiling stats and frankly the stats don’t
support their record. Offensively
over the last 7 days, they were 2nd in the AL in runs, 1st
in stolen bases, 4th lowest strike out rate (best in the
division). Outside of these, they
don’t lead the league in many pitching or hitting categories, but they are also
aren’t last in many of them. They
are playing consistent all around ball.
Where they do excel is defense. Opponents have the lowest batting average on balls in play
(BABIP), they’ve turned the 2nd most double plays in the league, 3rd
fewest errors, and they have the fewest stolen bases against. When the infield gets a chance to make
a play they make it, the one negative is that they have the 3rd
lowest ground ball % in the AL.
Playing in the AL East they play in some of the most hitter friendly
parks in the league and over the course of a full season, fly balls will start
turning into home runs. They have
a great defense, they better make sure they get them ball or else this early
success will quickly get away from them.
4.
Tampa Bay Rays – (Last Week 4)
Rays are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and look to have
righted the ship. The only reason
they aren’t gaining ground in the division is that every other team in the
division (not the Jays) also went 7-3.
Highlight of this last week for them taking 2 of 3 against the Yankees
to help climb back to 1 game below .500.
Best news is that the starting pitching is on track to where it was
expected to be before the season started.
Rays starters lead the league in innings pitched over the last week, 4th
in K/9, and the 4th best BB/9.
Lead by Matt Moore who along with Boston’s Buchholz are the early Cy
Young front runners, is 5-0 with a 1.13 ERA and a 10.69 K/9 rate. Rays not surprisingly lead the league
in IP by starters this season on the other hand Jays and the Astros lead in IP
by relief pitchers.
They still struggle offensively middle of the road average
and OBP and high strike out rate, but they did see an increase in runs scored
ranking 4th in the league this week. I don’t think their head coach (the old man from UP) will
really care how they are getting their runs as long as they are getting enough
to win, and with their pitching you don’t need that many.
Final note, the Rays have the 3rd best home record in the AL, apparently having the worst home field is advantage. Maybe it sucks the life out of their opponents, the idea that they have to be inside to watch a sport in Florida and it's not hockey. Mystifying that's a dome in the state that hosts outdoor baseball in the winter.
5.
Toronto Blue Jays – (Last Week 5)
Hitting and poor fielding continue to lose games for the
Jays. The latest a 4 game sweep at
the hands of the Yankees, more specifically the hands of Vernon Wells and Lyle
Overbay. It was bad enough when
those guys were helping us lose games when they were on the team, now they are
doing it as members of the hated New York Yankees.
Maybe this lineup just isn’t as good as what we thought were
going to get. Sure, they are still
signs of improvement.
1. They had the lead in all 4 games against the Yanks,
2. They made Hughes throw 111 pitches fouling off 25
pitches. Extending at bats is the
best way to wear down pitchers until they make a mistake. But ultimately what should be have
expected or what should be expect from this lineup?
Let’s look at our core hitters.
Arencibia and Rasmus are striking out at a rate of once for
every 2+ at bats, and both are striking out at a rate of double the MLB
average. Bautista is fairing a bit
better at a K every 4 ABs and a rate that’s 4% higher than the league average.
And their career numbers aren’t that much better. Arencibia 3.2 AB/SO at a SO% of 29.2%, Rasmus 3.8 and 23.8%
and Bautista 4.4 and 19.20%.
The fact that these guys also all hit above the league
average in home runs is great, but you just can’t have this many high strikeout
rates on a team. No wonder the
Jays only score in a couple innings a game, the rest of the game they are
striking out. It’s like Joaquin
Phoenix in Signs, just feels wrong not to swing, only these guys made it to the
Majors and aren’t fighting Aliens.
Additionally, these 5 players aren’t exactly known for
having high averages. Cabrera has
the highest career average at .283 but this includes his numbers from last year
on steroids and who knows what other years. Here’s how they rank for career batting average.
|
Cabrera
|
0.283
|
|
Arencibia
|
0.274
|
|
Encarnacion
|
0.263
|
|
Bautista
|
0.251
|
|
Rasmus
|
0.242
|
In the end there just isn’t balance on this team. You need to have your players that get
on base so that your power hitters can drive them home. At the moment, everyone is swinging for
the fences and Toronto is looking more and more like Mudville.
*
|
Player
|
Year
|
PA
|
HR%
|
SO%
|
AB/SO
|
|
JP
Arencibia
|
2013
|
96
|
8.30%
|
38.50%
|
2.5
|
|
|
4 Yrs
|
991
|
5.20%
|
29.20%
|
3.2
|
|
|
MLB Averages
|
|
2.50%
|
19.00%
|
4.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Colby
Rasmus
|
2013
|
83
|
4.80%
|
43.40%
|
2.1
|
|
|
5 Yrs
|
2288
|
3.50%
|
23.80%
|
3.8
|
|
|
MLB Averages
|
|
2.60%
|
18.80%
|
4.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jose
Bautista
|
2013
|
78
|
9.00%
|
21.80%
|
4.1
|
|
|
10 Yrs
|
3853
|
4.90%
|
19.20%
|
4.4
|
|
|
MLB Averages
|
|
2.70%
|
17.80%
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edwin
Encarnacion
|
2013
|
105
|
6.70%
|
16.20%
|
5.5
|
|
|
9 Yrs
|
3827
|
4.30%
|
16.80%
|
5.3
|
|
|
MLB Averages
|
|
2.60%
|
17.90%
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Melky
Cabrera
|
2013
|
109
|
0.00%
|
12.80%
|
7.1
|
|
|
9 Yrs
|
3973
|
1.70%
|
12.10%
|
7.5
|
|
|
MLB Averages
|
|
2.60%
|
17.90%
|
5
|
Friday, 26 April 2013
Hands off the Panic Button.
As the Jays entered last weekend against the Yankees they also enetered a pivotal point in the season. Their first big stretch against the AL East and a chance to immediately erase the slow start to the season. The results in the standings were less than desirable as they dropped 2 out of 3 to both the Yankees and the Orioles.
Yes the bats continue to struggle and there is little tangible evidence in improvement at the plate. They have found sound home runs here and there but not consistent enough to produce enough offense to win. Currently they sit 2nd in home runs only behind the Yankees but they are still only tied for 9th in total runs scored and the teams OBP is still 2nd latest in the American League.
Now, me along with most of the city that is following the Jays are on the edge of patience. You have a percentage of the population that has gone over the cliff and written off the season along with Gibby and maybe even AA, but the majority of fans still lie somewhere between starting to panic and slightly losing hope, like Cameron Frye trying to roll back the odometer on his Dad's Ferrari. Hopefully this post and this season will end better than that did.
Why I'm not hitting the panic button (Yet):
1. 2nd time's the charm. I'm not going to judge a team or a player based on their first series against an opponent. There is a learning curve and adjustments need to be made especially for players switching leagues. What's the true test is the second time they meet, when teams have had a chance to watch video on pitchers and hitters and make adjustments based on their last outing. Watch a rookie pitcher next time they are called up. They may have a great first few starts, but as soon as they face a team for a second time, major league veterans adjust and a rookie goes from being the next big thing to back to the minors (Major League III). Baseball is a game of subtlties and it's the player that best perpares and adjusts that has the edge in a match up. So as we head into the first series against a repeat team, watch for the players that make the adjustments, those are the ones that are going to turn their season around.
2. Sings of a Turnaround. It's hard to believe the Jays are turning things around, they still cannot seem to provide offense in more than 3 innings in a game. Dickey's start against Baltimore, Dickey only gave up runs in one inning but the Jays also only scored runs in one inning although they did threaten in the 7th, 8th and 9th. The 2nd home loss against the Yankees they came back to force extras until an error caused them to lose the game. 2 of the games against Baltimore they came back. 1 loss was in the bottom of the 9th (error again) and one in extra innings. In fact over their last 14 games they've only lost 3 games by more than 2 runs and 4 of their 7 losses in that stretch were by only 1 run. Despite how bad they seem to playing they still have had a chance to win all these games.
3. World Baseball Classic. This is a stretch but it greatly interrupted their regular spring training and most players have a set routine. Pitchers have an inning count when they introduce new pitches. Hitters have number of at bats until they feel their timing is right. WBC threw a major wrench in that schedule for a lot of players, especially Lawrie who ended up hurt, it's not unreasonable to expect a slower than normal start.
4. It's not how you start, it's how you finish (as Zenyatta). You have to go back to 2008 when the Jays had as bad of start at 10-15. They finished that season 86-76 and if there was a 2nd wild card spot then they would have only been 3 games back. Jays currently sit at 9-14, you will need 90+ wins to have a shot at the playoffs, that means they need to go 81-58 for the remainder to have a shot, they have 44 losses to go which puts them in the neighbourhood of 1 loss for every 3+ games. This sounds like a tall task, and frankly it is, but once this team gets some production it would not surprise me at all to see them come close to winning every sereies. Outside of the Rays and supposedly the Jays there is no other rotation that is a deep enough to really shutdown an offense over a full 3 game series. As terrible as the Jays are playing, they still have yet to be swept. Not good enough for you, look at the 2007 Colorado Rockies, what a rag tag bunch they were. They started the season 9-13, finished 90-73 and made it to the world series.
5. Just for Change, be positive Toronto. We're so used to being negative and our teams losing, but the Leafs made the playoffs, so anything can happen. It wouldn't kill us to be positive and if we can believe that Toronto is on the verge of turning the season around, maybe Toronto is on the verge of turning its sports fortunes around. If nothing else, being positive will mean less fights in the stands and we won't lose any leverage on making fun of Vancouver for their post Stanley Cup Riots. Do it for bragging rights that we are better people.
Yes the bats continue to struggle and there is little tangible evidence in improvement at the plate. They have found sound home runs here and there but not consistent enough to produce enough offense to win. Currently they sit 2nd in home runs only behind the Yankees but they are still only tied for 9th in total runs scored and the teams OBP is still 2nd latest in the American League.
Now, me along with most of the city that is following the Jays are on the edge of patience. You have a percentage of the population that has gone over the cliff and written off the season along with Gibby and maybe even AA, but the majority of fans still lie somewhere between starting to panic and slightly losing hope, like Cameron Frye trying to roll back the odometer on his Dad's Ferrari. Hopefully this post and this season will end better than that did.
Why I'm not hitting the panic button (Yet):
1. 2nd time's the charm. I'm not going to judge a team or a player based on their first series against an opponent. There is a learning curve and adjustments need to be made especially for players switching leagues. What's the true test is the second time they meet, when teams have had a chance to watch video on pitchers and hitters and make adjustments based on their last outing. Watch a rookie pitcher next time they are called up. They may have a great first few starts, but as soon as they face a team for a second time, major league veterans adjust and a rookie goes from being the next big thing to back to the minors (Major League III). Baseball is a game of subtlties and it's the player that best perpares and adjusts that has the edge in a match up. So as we head into the first series against a repeat team, watch for the players that make the adjustments, those are the ones that are going to turn their season around.
2. Sings of a Turnaround. It's hard to believe the Jays are turning things around, they still cannot seem to provide offense in more than 3 innings in a game. Dickey's start against Baltimore, Dickey only gave up runs in one inning but the Jays also only scored runs in one inning although they did threaten in the 7th, 8th and 9th. The 2nd home loss against the Yankees they came back to force extras until an error caused them to lose the game. 2 of the games against Baltimore they came back. 1 loss was in the bottom of the 9th (error again) and one in extra innings. In fact over their last 14 games they've only lost 3 games by more than 2 runs and 4 of their 7 losses in that stretch were by only 1 run. Despite how bad they seem to playing they still have had a chance to win all these games.
3. World Baseball Classic. This is a stretch but it greatly interrupted their regular spring training and most players have a set routine. Pitchers have an inning count when they introduce new pitches. Hitters have number of at bats until they feel their timing is right. WBC threw a major wrench in that schedule for a lot of players, especially Lawrie who ended up hurt, it's not unreasonable to expect a slower than normal start.
4. It's not how you start, it's how you finish (as Zenyatta). You have to go back to 2008 when the Jays had as bad of start at 10-15. They finished that season 86-76 and if there was a 2nd wild card spot then they would have only been 3 games back. Jays currently sit at 9-14, you will need 90+ wins to have a shot at the playoffs, that means they need to go 81-58 for the remainder to have a shot, they have 44 losses to go which puts them in the neighbourhood of 1 loss for every 3+ games. This sounds like a tall task, and frankly it is, but once this team gets some production it would not surprise me at all to see them come close to winning every sereies. Outside of the Rays and supposedly the Jays there is no other rotation that is a deep enough to really shutdown an offense over a full 3 game series. As terrible as the Jays are playing, they still have yet to be swept. Not good enough for you, look at the 2007 Colorado Rockies, what a rag tag bunch they were. They started the season 9-13, finished 90-73 and made it to the world series.
5. Just for Change, be positive Toronto. We're so used to being negative and our teams losing, but the Leafs made the playoffs, so anything can happen. It wouldn't kill us to be positive and if we can believe that Toronto is on the verge of turning the season around, maybe Toronto is on the verge of turning its sports fortunes around. If nothing else, being positive will mean less fights in the stands and we won't lose any leverage on making fun of Vancouver for their post Stanley Cup Riots. Do it for bragging rights that we are better people.
Monday, 22 April 2013
AL East Power Rankings - Week 3
This week in power rankings we see some more frustration from the current Blue Jays as well as Blue Jays past coming back to haunt us and once again we see that the AL East is one of the toughest divisions to play.
1. New York Yankees - (Last Week 3) Record through 04/21 10-7
Led by the resurgent Vernon Wells who hit .500 over the weekend (I hope that's the last time I write that) the Yankees continue to get great hitting from their line up of misfits and last minute aquisitions who were desperation fill ins for the injury riddled starting line up. Travis Hafner, Wells, Cano and even Francisco Cervelli are all batting over .300. So how are they doing it? Except for Cano none of these players were projected to hit any where close to .300. But they have the best OBP in the division and when you are consistently getting the lead off hitter on base, it forces pitchers to pitch to hitters they would usually pitch around. One or two hot hitters can really boost the line up around them until they become a confident group. A tribute to plate discipline this team is ranked in the top 3 in the AL in 8 different hitting categories.
Pitching wise, their 1, 2, 3 starters (Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte) are a combined 8-2 with an average ERA of 2.31. The only reason they are 10-7 and not first in the division, their 5th and 6th starters have a combined record or 1-3 and an ERA of 6.29. This is an area of concern as the top 3 starters are 32, 38, 41. I don't know how they will manage if or when one of these players gets injured. But then again, I don't know how they are really doing so well right now.
2. Boston Red Sox - (Last Week 1) Record: 12-6
After a great start the Red Sox came back down to earth this weekend losing both games in a double header to the Kansas City Royals, the only team the Jays have won a series against. What's interesting about the Red Sox, despite their great start, they are still only 1.5 games up on the 2nd place Yankees and they are only 5-4 at home. The really telling stats which brings them down to 2nd this week, is the are 4-5 against teams that are .500 or better and 8-1 against teams that are under .500. These are games you are supposed to win, but if you want win the AL East you will have to beat the good teams and the bad. Currently the Red Sox have had the easiest schedule, good for them for taking advantage but good for everyone else, this first month has all the makings of a team that might drop back to the middle of the pack come June and July.
Batting wise, over the last 7 days they have struck out the most times in the AL and that includes the Houston Astros, for this stat alone I should put them at the bottom of the power rankings. In addition they only had a better team batting average than the Blue Jays in the division. This could be indicative of a tough match up in their series and the Royals pitching has been decent this season, posting good ERA and the 3rd best k/9. So although this is not the way you want your hitting stats trending, there is no reason to be alarmed, yet.
3. Baltimore Orioles - (Last Week 2) Record: 10-8
Tied with the Yankees for the hardest schedule to date, the Orioles are sitting 2 games back in the division. Offensively they are only slightly behind the Yankees in most stats and are in the top 3 in R, HR, Avg, OBP and this shouldn't be a big surprise as both New York and Baltimore play in hitter friendly parks. However they aren't taking advantage of their offensive home field advantage as they are are only 5-4 at home, which can be attributed to the their mediocre pitching.
They have the 6th highest ERA in the AL and an even worse FIP (ERA factoring in defense) they have the 4th highest BB/9 and the 4th lowest k/9. Unlike the Yankees these stats aren't a result of one or two players bringing down the average. They don't have 1 starter with an ERA lower than 3.38 and Jason Hammel is the only pitcher with a winning record at 2-1. Simply put this team will have to find a better balance and will need these young arms to show some consistency if they want to return the post season.
4. Tampa Bay Rays - (Last Week 5) Record: 8-10
Although the Rays find themselves 4th in the division and 4th in the power rankings, they seem to be a team on the upswing. Winners of 3 in a row (4 if you include Monday's win). And they are getting it done with their pitching. Over the last week, they have the most innings pitched from their starters. Their starters are also putting up an 8.93 k/9 vs a 2.3 BB/9. Pitching is the engine of this team and if they continue to pitch the way they have this past week, they will quickly jump up the standings and the rankings.
If you had to bet on the AL Cy Young award, Matt Moore is the early favorite 3-0 with an ERA of 1.00.
Offensively they are starting to get good production, only 1 total hit less than the Yankees over the last week, and have the most HRs. After a slow start a good stretch to turn things around is exactly what this team needs to get back on track and sitting 4 games back in the East they could be back on top of the power rankings by May.
5. Toronto Blue Jays - (Last Week 4) Record: 8-11
No fancy stats needed here (i'm giving them to you anyway) the Jays are playing like the worst team in the division. That's not to say they are the worst team, but they are certainly playing like it. They literally threw away a hard fought, come from behind win on Saturday, Bonifacio continues to struggle and Kawasaki's value has diminished to just enteratinment value.
Offensively over the last 7 days they are last in the division in Runs (25), Avg (.240) and OBP (.294) and overall this season they are 10th or worse in the AL in 7 offensive categories. With a team that is supposed to be stacked with good hitters, why are they hitting so poorly? If the Yankees are on top of the rankings because of good plate discipline, they Jays are on the bottom for the same reason.
They have the highest swinging percentage for pitches out of the zone (i.e. balls) yet they have the second lowest contact percentage for these pitches out of the zone. They also have the 4th highest first pitch strike percentage against. Simply put, hitters are falling behind the counts early and they are letting pitchers dictate the at bat and it results batters chasing bad pitches.
The bright spot is the pitching has greatly improved. Dickey was lights out, going 6 innings on only 64 pitches, and giving up 0 runs and 1 hit. Buehrle threw 13.1 innings over 2 starts with 10ks and only 3 walks. That's more like the Buehrle that was expected. But without any offense, great starts are useless when there is no run support. Johnson on Sunday was pitching very well giving up 2 runs until he had a bit of a meltdown and walked in 2 batters but until a late rally it looked like those runs might be the difference. What's tragic, is these pitchers can't afford to even have one bad inning as the offense has provided terrible run support. That adds unnecessary pressure to these starters to be perfect. Further more even when they put balls in play, the defense has not been helping them out.
The Jays are last in errors in the AL and 5th worst in fielding percentage, both are good for last in the division. As a team they simply give up too many free runs, and with the lack of offense, they can't afford to. Alone Bonifacio and Izturis have combined for 7 errors, the same as the entire Baltimore Orioles team.
One bright spot is in the games on Saturday and Sunday, they came from behind. That shows character and even though things aren't going their way, they are still fighting. Now if only these runs could come early so they could let their pitchers and fielders relax a bit.
Coolest thing I learned all week: The last black ball player who played before being banned and before Jackie Robinson in 1946 was a Canadian by the name of Hippo Galloway. Who was also the first black professional hockey player. He played a hockey game in 1899 for Woodstock of the Central Ontario Hockey Association.
Highlight of the Week: Boston returns to Fenway after last weeks events and Ortiz drops a bomb of his own (too soon?)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=lqD8iN03W6M&NR=1
Jays Highlight of the Week: The Leafs made the playoffs, Toronto can go back to not caring about the Jays and maybe that will help them win.
1. New York Yankees - (Last Week 3) Record through 04/21 10-7
Led by the resurgent Vernon Wells who hit .500 over the weekend (I hope that's the last time I write that) the Yankees continue to get great hitting from their line up of misfits and last minute aquisitions who were desperation fill ins for the injury riddled starting line up. Travis Hafner, Wells, Cano and even Francisco Cervelli are all batting over .300. So how are they doing it? Except for Cano none of these players were projected to hit any where close to .300. But they have the best OBP in the division and when you are consistently getting the lead off hitter on base, it forces pitchers to pitch to hitters they would usually pitch around. One or two hot hitters can really boost the line up around them until they become a confident group. A tribute to plate discipline this team is ranked in the top 3 in the AL in 8 different hitting categories.
Pitching wise, their 1, 2, 3 starters (Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte) are a combined 8-2 with an average ERA of 2.31. The only reason they are 10-7 and not first in the division, their 5th and 6th starters have a combined record or 1-3 and an ERA of 6.29. This is an area of concern as the top 3 starters are 32, 38, 41. I don't know how they will manage if or when one of these players gets injured. But then again, I don't know how they are really doing so well right now.
2. Boston Red Sox - (Last Week 1) Record: 12-6
After a great start the Red Sox came back down to earth this weekend losing both games in a double header to the Kansas City Royals, the only team the Jays have won a series against. What's interesting about the Red Sox, despite their great start, they are still only 1.5 games up on the 2nd place Yankees and they are only 5-4 at home. The really telling stats which brings them down to 2nd this week, is the are 4-5 against teams that are .500 or better and 8-1 against teams that are under .500. These are games you are supposed to win, but if you want win the AL East you will have to beat the good teams and the bad. Currently the Red Sox have had the easiest schedule, good for them for taking advantage but good for everyone else, this first month has all the makings of a team that might drop back to the middle of the pack come June and July.
Batting wise, over the last 7 days they have struck out the most times in the AL and that includes the Houston Astros, for this stat alone I should put them at the bottom of the power rankings. In addition they only had a better team batting average than the Blue Jays in the division. This could be indicative of a tough match up in their series and the Royals pitching has been decent this season, posting good ERA and the 3rd best k/9. So although this is not the way you want your hitting stats trending, there is no reason to be alarmed, yet.
3. Baltimore Orioles - (Last Week 2) Record: 10-8
Tied with the Yankees for the hardest schedule to date, the Orioles are sitting 2 games back in the division. Offensively they are only slightly behind the Yankees in most stats and are in the top 3 in R, HR, Avg, OBP and this shouldn't be a big surprise as both New York and Baltimore play in hitter friendly parks. However they aren't taking advantage of their offensive home field advantage as they are are only 5-4 at home, which can be attributed to the their mediocre pitching.
They have the 6th highest ERA in the AL and an even worse FIP (ERA factoring in defense) they have the 4th highest BB/9 and the 4th lowest k/9. Unlike the Yankees these stats aren't a result of one or two players bringing down the average. They don't have 1 starter with an ERA lower than 3.38 and Jason Hammel is the only pitcher with a winning record at 2-1. Simply put this team will have to find a better balance and will need these young arms to show some consistency if they want to return the post season.
4. Tampa Bay Rays - (Last Week 5) Record: 8-10
Although the Rays find themselves 4th in the division and 4th in the power rankings, they seem to be a team on the upswing. Winners of 3 in a row (4 if you include Monday's win). And they are getting it done with their pitching. Over the last week, they have the most innings pitched from their starters. Their starters are also putting up an 8.93 k/9 vs a 2.3 BB/9. Pitching is the engine of this team and if they continue to pitch the way they have this past week, they will quickly jump up the standings and the rankings.
If you had to bet on the AL Cy Young award, Matt Moore is the early favorite 3-0 with an ERA of 1.00.
Offensively they are starting to get good production, only 1 total hit less than the Yankees over the last week, and have the most HRs. After a slow start a good stretch to turn things around is exactly what this team needs to get back on track and sitting 4 games back in the East they could be back on top of the power rankings by May.
5. Toronto Blue Jays - (Last Week 4) Record: 8-11
No fancy stats needed here (i'm giving them to you anyway) the Jays are playing like the worst team in the division. That's not to say they are the worst team, but they are certainly playing like it. They literally threw away a hard fought, come from behind win on Saturday, Bonifacio continues to struggle and Kawasaki's value has diminished to just enteratinment value.
Offensively over the last 7 days they are last in the division in Runs (25), Avg (.240) and OBP (.294) and overall this season they are 10th or worse in the AL in 7 offensive categories. With a team that is supposed to be stacked with good hitters, why are they hitting so poorly? If the Yankees are on top of the rankings because of good plate discipline, they Jays are on the bottom for the same reason.
They have the highest swinging percentage for pitches out of the zone (i.e. balls) yet they have the second lowest contact percentage for these pitches out of the zone. They also have the 4th highest first pitch strike percentage against. Simply put, hitters are falling behind the counts early and they are letting pitchers dictate the at bat and it results batters chasing bad pitches.
The bright spot is the pitching has greatly improved. Dickey was lights out, going 6 innings on only 64 pitches, and giving up 0 runs and 1 hit. Buehrle threw 13.1 innings over 2 starts with 10ks and only 3 walks. That's more like the Buehrle that was expected. But without any offense, great starts are useless when there is no run support. Johnson on Sunday was pitching very well giving up 2 runs until he had a bit of a meltdown and walked in 2 batters but until a late rally it looked like those runs might be the difference. What's tragic, is these pitchers can't afford to even have one bad inning as the offense has provided terrible run support. That adds unnecessary pressure to these starters to be perfect. Further more even when they put balls in play, the defense has not been helping them out.
The Jays are last in errors in the AL and 5th worst in fielding percentage, both are good for last in the division. As a team they simply give up too many free runs, and with the lack of offense, they can't afford to. Alone Bonifacio and Izturis have combined for 7 errors, the same as the entire Baltimore Orioles team.
One bright spot is in the games on Saturday and Sunday, they came from behind. That shows character and even though things aren't going their way, they are still fighting. Now if only these runs could come early so they could let their pitchers and fielders relax a bit.
Coolest thing I learned all week: The last black ball player who played before being banned and before Jackie Robinson in 1946 was a Canadian by the name of Hippo Galloway. Who was also the first black professional hockey player. He played a hockey game in 1899 for Woodstock of the Central Ontario Hockey Association.
Highlight of the Week: Boston returns to Fenway after last weeks events and Ortiz drops a bomb of his own (too soon?)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=lqD8iN03W6M&NR=1
Jays Highlight of the Week: The Leafs made the playoffs, Toronto can go back to not caring about the Jays and maybe that will help them win.
Monday, 15 April 2013
AL East Power Rankings - Week 2
It's still early in the season so the teams are not seperated by much and the AL East is shaping up to be a tight race. In fact by the time I finish writing this, if the Jays can hold on to their 2 run lead they might jump up in the standings. We also see last week's rankings almost completely flip flop.
1. Boston Red Sox - (Last Week 4)
As much as it pains me to see this team ahead in the standings especially with Farrell leading the team, they are getting it done on the field. They have the best run differential in the division and they are getting it done in a total team effort. Not being lead by one or two power hitters. They have the most RBIs in the division but the 4th lowest number of home runs. They are also making opponent pitchers work as they rank first in pitches per plate appearance (PPA). On the other side of the diamond, they have received great pitching from their 1 & 2 starters Lester and Bucholz. They are a combined 5-0 in 6 starts and even if you combine their ERA it's still only 1.83 (give me that ERA).
Now they do still have issues as their pitching drops off dramatically after that, but so far it's not prevented them from leading the division.
2. Baltimore Orioles - (Last Week 2)
I was going to put the New York Yankees in the 2 hole but really they belong in the pooh hole. What is keeping Baltimore in the 2 spot are the 2 come from behind victories in Boston this past week off of struggling Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan-a-ding dong. But other than Boston they are the only other team to not have a losing record against teams that are .500 or better.
Ultimately I just don't see them winning the division. Offensively they are middle of the table, 2nd in average, 3rd in RBIs, 4th in walks, 3rd in Ks. If you want to win the AL East, you can't be mediocre and Chris Davis cannot carry the team alone, ultimately he will slow down and someone else will have to step up. Adam Jones is having another good year average wise and putting up 11 RBIs, but ask the Angles, you need contribution through out the line up to win the division.
In addition their pitching has struggled to get on track aside from their bullpen duo of Jim Johnson (ERA 0.00, 5 saves) and Darren O'Day (ERA 0.00, 3 holds) they can come back in a game but rarely give up late inning come backs. Enjoy it while it lasts Baltimore. After watching the wire, i'm renaming the warehouse in Camden Yards to the vacants.
3. New York Yankees - (Last Week 5)
Yankees sit second in the standings, which is really disappointing, was looking forward to a good season of seeing them in last place. I guess I'll always have Seinfeld DVDs to watch Frank Costanza yell at Steinbrenner for tading Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps. But instead they lead the division in most offense categories (runs, RBI, HR, Avg) and they are doing it with a veteran line up. The reason they are sitting only in 3rd is simply, despite starting the season better than anyone expected, they are only 6-5 and really can't imagine they are going to improve on their offense. This plus their stars don't look any closer to returning to the lineup. In fact Jeter's rehab has gone backwards, taking less batting practice and still suffering from pain when he runs. In addition, ARod is facing some serious off field issues with reports that he tried to purchase documents that linked him to more steroid use including HGH.
On the positive side, they are getting about as much as they could hope out of their top 3 starters, but they will need a better bull pen since Pettitte and Kuroda are north of 38 and the age shows in their in ability to pitch deep into games on a consistent basis. Ultimately it might take a reverse Jay Buhner trade to make the Yankees a legit threat this season.
4. Toronto Blue Jays - (Last Week 3)
Jays drop 1 spot in power rankings this week despite starting to win some games. After taking 2 of 3 against the Royals and getting back to back good starts from Dickey and Morrow they still show struggles on the offensive side. Their win on Saturday came on just 2 hits one a home run by Bautista who then starts the new week being scratched from the lineup for back spasms, this in addition to losing Reyes for what now appears to be 8-weeks instead of the original 12. The good news is Encarnacion is starting to swing his bat better and Lawrie looks to be close to a return has things looking up. Plus this bit of adversity in the beginning of the season might be just what the Jays need to build a championship dressing room. They started the season and can't help but feel like the favorites, now with a bad start and losing their best player, they are learning what it takes to win, and I think this will pay off when they are playing tough, must win games. If you want an in depth analysis of the Jays season start, the post from Saturday has it all, READ IT.
5. Tampa Bay (Last Week 1)
Simply put the stats say it all. 4-7 record, they're 2-6 against opponents who are .500 or better and they are the worst team in terms of runs and average. We always knew they were going to struggle offensively, what we didn't expect was that their defending Cy Young winner would have an ERA 5.82 ERA and yet to earn a win. The positive, Matt Moore and Alex Cobb are off to great starts with a combined 3-1 record and 1.93 ERA, Moore has a 0.00 ERA and he's a starter, he is in fact playing isn't he? Tampa is very cautious with their young pitchers and very concious of developing their arms, so pitch count will impact them this team will need to get better quality pitching from the rest of their starters, they simply can't rely on a rookie and sophmore to take on the whole work load.
Tampa and Toronto seem to have similar issues, pitching hasn't been what they expect and offensive struggles are keeping them at the bottom of the AL East in the stat that means the most, wins. If the Jays and the Rays were tied in the standings I would still put them at the bottom, if for nothing more than their shitty stadium.
Picture of Week: Miam Marlins stadium where they are kicking fans out for protesting.
Highlight of the Week: Yankees turning a Triple Play on a ball that doesn't even leave the infield.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=26240819&topic_id=9674738&c_id=mlb
Jays Highlight of the Week: Arencibia's 3-run double to complete a 5 run comeback against the Tigers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCbI0TbwFus&noredirect=1
1. Boston Red Sox - (Last Week 4)
As much as it pains me to see this team ahead in the standings especially with Farrell leading the team, they are getting it done on the field. They have the best run differential in the division and they are getting it done in a total team effort. Not being lead by one or two power hitters. They have the most RBIs in the division but the 4th lowest number of home runs. They are also making opponent pitchers work as they rank first in pitches per plate appearance (PPA). On the other side of the diamond, they have received great pitching from their 1 & 2 starters Lester and Bucholz. They are a combined 5-0 in 6 starts and even if you combine their ERA it's still only 1.83 (give me that ERA).
Now they do still have issues as their pitching drops off dramatically after that, but so far it's not prevented them from leading the division.
2. Baltimore Orioles - (Last Week 2)
I was going to put the New York Yankees in the 2 hole but really they belong in the pooh hole. What is keeping Baltimore in the 2 spot are the 2 come from behind victories in Boston this past week off of struggling Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan-a-ding dong. But other than Boston they are the only other team to not have a losing record against teams that are .500 or better.
Ultimately I just don't see them winning the division. Offensively they are middle of the table, 2nd in average, 3rd in RBIs, 4th in walks, 3rd in Ks. If you want to win the AL East, you can't be mediocre and Chris Davis cannot carry the team alone, ultimately he will slow down and someone else will have to step up. Adam Jones is having another good year average wise and putting up 11 RBIs, but ask the Angles, you need contribution through out the line up to win the division.
In addition their pitching has struggled to get on track aside from their bullpen duo of Jim Johnson (ERA 0.00, 5 saves) and Darren O'Day (ERA 0.00, 3 holds) they can come back in a game but rarely give up late inning come backs. Enjoy it while it lasts Baltimore. After watching the wire, i'm renaming the warehouse in Camden Yards to the vacants.
3. New York Yankees - (Last Week 5)
Yankees sit second in the standings, which is really disappointing, was looking forward to a good season of seeing them in last place. I guess I'll always have Seinfeld DVDs to watch Frank Costanza yell at Steinbrenner for tading Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps. But instead they lead the division in most offense categories (runs, RBI, HR, Avg) and they are doing it with a veteran line up. The reason they are sitting only in 3rd is simply, despite starting the season better than anyone expected, they are only 6-5 and really can't imagine they are going to improve on their offense. This plus their stars don't look any closer to returning to the lineup. In fact Jeter's rehab has gone backwards, taking less batting practice and still suffering from pain when he runs. In addition, ARod is facing some serious off field issues with reports that he tried to purchase documents that linked him to more steroid use including HGH.
On the positive side, they are getting about as much as they could hope out of their top 3 starters, but they will need a better bull pen since Pettitte and Kuroda are north of 38 and the age shows in their in ability to pitch deep into games on a consistent basis. Ultimately it might take a reverse Jay Buhner trade to make the Yankees a legit threat this season.
4. Toronto Blue Jays - (Last Week 3)
Jays drop 1 spot in power rankings this week despite starting to win some games. After taking 2 of 3 against the Royals and getting back to back good starts from Dickey and Morrow they still show struggles on the offensive side. Their win on Saturday came on just 2 hits one a home run by Bautista who then starts the new week being scratched from the lineup for back spasms, this in addition to losing Reyes for what now appears to be 8-weeks instead of the original 12. The good news is Encarnacion is starting to swing his bat better and Lawrie looks to be close to a return has things looking up. Plus this bit of adversity in the beginning of the season might be just what the Jays need to build a championship dressing room. They started the season and can't help but feel like the favorites, now with a bad start and losing their best player, they are learning what it takes to win, and I think this will pay off when they are playing tough, must win games. If you want an in depth analysis of the Jays season start, the post from Saturday has it all, READ IT.
5. Tampa Bay (Last Week 1)
Simply put the stats say it all. 4-7 record, they're 2-6 against opponents who are .500 or better and they are the worst team in terms of runs and average. We always knew they were going to struggle offensively, what we didn't expect was that their defending Cy Young winner would have an ERA 5.82 ERA and yet to earn a win. The positive, Matt Moore and Alex Cobb are off to great starts with a combined 3-1 record and 1.93 ERA, Moore has a 0.00 ERA and he's a starter, he is in fact playing isn't he? Tampa is very cautious with their young pitchers and very concious of developing their arms, so pitch count will impact them this team will need to get better quality pitching from the rest of their starters, they simply can't rely on a rookie and sophmore to take on the whole work load.
Tampa and Toronto seem to have similar issues, pitching hasn't been what they expect and offensive struggles are keeping them at the bottom of the AL East in the stat that means the most, wins. If the Jays and the Rays were tied in the standings I would still put them at the bottom, if for nothing more than their shitty stadium.
Picture of Week: Miam Marlins stadium where they are kicking fans out for protesting.
Highlight of the Week: Yankees turning a Triple Play on a ball that doesn't even leave the infield.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=26240819&topic_id=9674738&c_id=mlb
Jays Highlight of the Week: Arencibia's 3-run double to complete a 5 run comeback against the Tigers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCbI0TbwFus&noredirect=1
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