This week in power rankings we see some more frustration from the current Blue Jays as well as Blue Jays past coming back to haunt us and once again we see that the AL East is one of the toughest divisions to play.
1. New York Yankees - (Last Week 3) Record through 04/21 10-7
Led by the resurgent Vernon Wells who hit .500 over the weekend (I hope that's the last time I write that) the Yankees continue to get great hitting from their line up of misfits and last minute aquisitions who were desperation fill ins for the injury riddled starting line up. Travis Hafner, Wells, Cano and even Francisco Cervelli are all batting over .300. So how are they doing it? Except for Cano none of these players were projected to hit any where close to .300. But they have the best OBP in the division and when you are consistently getting the lead off hitter on base, it forces pitchers to pitch to hitters they would usually pitch around. One or two hot hitters can really boost the line up around them until they become a confident group. A tribute to plate discipline this team is ranked in the top 3 in the AL in 8 different hitting categories.
Pitching wise, their 1, 2, 3 starters (Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte) are a combined 8-2 with an average ERA of 2.31. The only reason they are 10-7 and not first in the division, their 5th and 6th starters have a combined record or 1-3 and an ERA of 6.29. This is an area of concern as the top 3 starters are 32, 38, 41. I don't know how they will manage if or when one of these players gets injured. But then again, I don't know how they are really doing so well right now.
2. Boston Red Sox - (Last Week 1) Record: 12-6
After a great start the Red Sox came back down to earth this weekend losing both games in a double header to the Kansas City Royals, the only team the Jays have won a series against. What's interesting about the Red Sox, despite their great start, they are still only 1.5 games up on the 2nd place Yankees and they are only 5-4 at home. The really telling stats which brings them down to 2nd this week, is the are 4-5 against teams that are .500 or better and 8-1 against teams that are under .500. These are games you are supposed to win, but if you want win the AL East you will have to beat the good teams and the bad. Currently the Red Sox have had the easiest schedule, good for them for taking advantage but good for everyone else, this first month has all the makings of a team that might drop back to the middle of the pack come June and July.
Batting wise, over the last 7 days they have struck out the most times in the AL and that includes the Houston Astros, for this stat alone I should put them at the bottom of the power rankings. In addition they only had a better team batting average than the Blue Jays in the division. This could be indicative of a tough match up in their series and the Royals pitching has been decent this season, posting good ERA and the 3rd best k/9. So although this is not the way you want your hitting stats trending, there is no reason to be alarmed, yet.
3. Baltimore Orioles - (Last Week 2) Record: 10-8
Tied with the Yankees for the hardest schedule to date, the Orioles are sitting 2 games back in the division. Offensively they are only slightly behind the Yankees in most stats and are in the top 3 in R, HR, Avg, OBP and this shouldn't be a big surprise as both New York and Baltimore play in hitter friendly parks. However they aren't taking advantage of their offensive home field advantage as they are are only 5-4 at home, which can be attributed to the their mediocre pitching.
They have the 6th highest ERA in the AL and an even worse FIP (ERA factoring in defense) they have the 4th highest BB/9 and the 4th lowest k/9. Unlike the Yankees these stats aren't a result of one or two players bringing down the average. They don't have 1 starter with an ERA lower than 3.38 and Jason Hammel is the only pitcher with a winning record at 2-1. Simply put this team will have to find a better balance and will need these young arms to show some consistency if they want to return the post season.
4. Tampa Bay Rays - (Last Week 5) Record: 8-10
Although the Rays find themselves 4th in the division and 4th in the power rankings, they seem to be a team on the upswing. Winners of 3 in a row (4 if you include Monday's win). And they are getting it done with their pitching. Over the last week, they have the most innings pitched from their starters. Their starters are also putting up an 8.93 k/9 vs a 2.3 BB/9. Pitching is the engine of this team and if they continue to pitch the way they have this past week, they will quickly jump up the standings and the rankings.
If you had to bet on the AL Cy Young award, Matt Moore is the early favorite 3-0 with an ERA of 1.00.
Offensively they are starting to get good production, only 1 total hit less than the Yankees over the last week, and have the most HRs. After a slow start a good stretch to turn things around is exactly what this team needs to get back on track and sitting 4 games back in the East they could be back on top of the power rankings by May.
5. Toronto Blue Jays - (Last Week 4) Record: 8-11
No fancy stats needed here (i'm giving them to you anyway) the Jays are playing like the worst team in the division. That's not to say they are the worst team, but they are certainly playing like it. They literally threw away a hard fought, come from behind win on Saturday, Bonifacio continues to struggle and Kawasaki's value has diminished to just enteratinment value.
Offensively over the last 7 days they are last in the division in Runs (25), Avg (.240) and OBP (.294) and overall this season they are 10th or worse in the AL in 7 offensive categories. With a team that is supposed to be stacked with good hitters, why are they hitting so poorly? If the Yankees are on top of the rankings because of good plate discipline, they Jays are on the bottom for the same reason.
They have the highest swinging percentage for pitches out of the zone (i.e. balls) yet they have the second lowest contact percentage for these pitches out of the zone. They also have the 4th highest first pitch strike percentage against. Simply put, hitters are falling behind the counts early and they are letting pitchers dictate the at bat and it results batters chasing bad pitches.
The bright spot is the pitching has greatly improved. Dickey was lights out, going 6 innings on only 64 pitches, and giving up 0 runs and 1 hit. Buehrle threw 13.1 innings over 2 starts with 10ks and only 3 walks. That's more like the Buehrle that was expected. But without any offense, great starts are useless when there is no run support. Johnson on Sunday was pitching very well giving up 2 runs until he had a bit of a meltdown and walked in 2 batters but until a late rally it looked like those runs might be the difference. What's tragic, is these pitchers can't afford to even have one bad inning as the offense has provided terrible run support. That adds unnecessary pressure to these starters to be perfect. Further more even when they put balls in play, the defense has not been helping them out.
The Jays are last in errors in the AL and 5th worst in fielding percentage, both are good for last in the division. As a team they simply give up too many free runs, and with the lack of offense, they can't afford to. Alone Bonifacio and Izturis have combined for 7 errors, the same as the entire Baltimore Orioles team.
One bright spot is in the games on Saturday and Sunday, they came from behind. That shows character and even though things aren't going their way, they are still fighting. Now if only these runs could come early so they could let their pitchers and fielders relax a bit.
Coolest thing I learned all week: The last black ball player who played before being banned and before Jackie Robinson in 1946 was a Canadian by the name of Hippo Galloway. Who was also the first black professional hockey player. He played a hockey game in 1899 for Woodstock of the Central Ontario Hockey Association.
Highlight of the Week: Boston returns to Fenway after last weeks events and Ortiz drops a bomb of his own (too soon?)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=lqD8iN03W6M&NR=1
Jays Highlight of the Week: The Leafs made the playoffs, Toronto can go back to not caring about the Jays and maybe that will help them win.
No comments:
Post a Comment