This could the hardest power rankings to do to date, with the AL East standings a log jam it's hard to really separate the teams. With the help of nerdy stats and prejudice against my AL East rivals, below are the rankings as I want them.
#1. Tampa Bay Rays (Season Prediction #1)
A lot has been made about the Rays lack of offense through the first month of the season, but don't look now, they have actually scored the most runs of any team in the AL East, have had the hardest schedule to date (15 of 18 games were against teams .500 or better), and icing on the cake they are 4-0 in 1 run games, a crucial stat for a team that relies on pitching.
The only reluctance to having Tampa retain the #1 spot is they lost their 2nd best pitcher for the season. Matt Moore has undergone Tommy John and will be out for the entire 2014 season. Tampa has great depth at pitching, but relying on such a young rotation already losing Moore who's really young himself was looked to to be an anchor behind Price.
#2. Boston Red Sox (Season Prediction # 3)
Red Sox sit last in the AL East but are still 8-10 through the end of Saturday and only 2 games back of first place. They have certainly gotten off to a much worse start than expected with a team average of .235 (3rd worst in the AL) and 22% strike out rate (5th highest in the AL), they are lucky to only be 2 games back. Along with Tampa, they have had the hardest schedule of any AL East team. As mentioned in the predictions, the knock on the Red Sox is their key players are all one year older. This could be a reason for their slow start, but if they can hang in the pack, watch out for when they heat up.
What's keeping them in the hunt is pitching. Best xFIP in the AL at 3.4, lowest BB/9 2.5 (league average 3.4), 2nd highest IP from starters in the AL East and 2nd highest K total from starters in the AL. Jon Lester is leading the rotation and you would expect that Bucholz to be right behind him, but it's Jake Peavy carrying the load as Bucholz has the highest ERA of the starters and the lowest IPs.
Red Sox could go either way this year but for now I will say that they are staying close and once they are firing on all cylinders, they should be competing for top spot.
#3. New York Yankees (Season Prediction #4)
I had the Yankees ranked 4th to start the season as I questioned their pitching staff and how well the big off season over haul would work. Well their starters lead the AL in IPs, wins by starters, Ks, lowest walks by starters. In addition big off season signing Jacoby Ellsbury is having a huge start .365/.414/.476. The power hasn't been there with only 6 extra base hits, but he does have 8 SBs. Add his OBP and power from McCann, Beltran, Kelly Johnson and Soriano (combined 14 HRs) and 2nd highest team avg in the AL, not surprised they find themselves on top of the AL East standings.
Better than expected pitching, production from new signings, why aren't they ranked higher? There is still too much uncertainty.
1. Every other team in the AL East is playing poor baseball.
2. They've had the easiest schedule to date
3. Worst SRS (run differential + strength of schedule) in the AL East
4. Relying on production from unproven sources.
I'll expand on #4. Their rotation is being carried by import Tanaka who looks to be the real deal but won't be able to say for sure until opponents get to face him for a second and 3rd time and have a scouting report, plus it's too early to tell if he'll adjust well to the North American schedule (I think he will and lead the team in wins). They are also getting quality pitching from Michael Pineda who hasn't pitched in 2 years because of injuries, again too early to see if he's finally the pitcher they thought they were getting from Seattle. Regular staples in the rotation Sabathia and Kuroda are off to rough starts. Sabathia boasting a 5.19 ERA and opponents average of .269. If this team wants to continue to lead the division it's going to have to come from more than Pineda and Tanaka. Not to mention Nova has a partially torn ligament in his arm not that they are going to miss his 8.27 ERA but it still leaves them scrambling to find a replacement.
#4. Toronto Blue Jays (Season Prediction #5)
The Jays move one spot up this week from where I had them in the preseason. As a Jays fan this is going to be an emotional roller coaster of a season. As predicted they are hovering around the .500 mark but it's how they are winning and losing that really has them see sawing in the power rankings.
Biggest question coming into the year was starting pitching or lack there of. They have 8 of their 10 wins from starters (2nd highest in the AL) best ERA of any AL East team, 2nd best K/9, and the lowest HR/9 of any team in the AL. That's the good, now the bad. 6th worst xFIP (ie they are getting great defense), only have 103.2 IP from their starters through 19 games. Their starters although not giving up runs also aren't going deep into games (averaging 5.4 innings/start). They once again are relying heavily on a bull pen. Only difference this year is that they are leaving the game with leads and not down 7 runs. But they have the second highest IPs and BBs from relievers. They are on pace to burn out their bull pen like last year. What's even more concerning, they are carrying 3 catchers and what seems like an endless supply of middle infielders, if they can free up some roster spots and fill those with some bull pen help it will take pressure off the current cast. We've already seen two games this week get blown by the bullpen, they need help.
Offensively, the team is having similar issues to 2013. 4th lowest team batting average (one better than Boston), 5th lowest OBP. What's improved is their strike out rate 6th lowest in the AL. Thanks to much better plate discipline. 2013 Jays hitters swung at 30.5% of pitches out of the strike zone (8th worst in the AL) compared to 24.9% in 2014, good for 3rd lowest. If they keep this up, pitchers will be forced to throw strikes and when they do, the jays make contact on 88.1% of strikes thrown. With a team of this much offensive talent/ability the best thing they can do is make sure they aren't letting pitchers off the hook by swinging at balls. If they keep this up, average and OBP will go up and so will their spot in the rankings. For now, we will have to hang in with tight games and hope our bull pen can stay strong until the offense gets better. Meanwhile I'll try to not lose my mind and my hair when the bullpen blows the next lead, it's not totally their fault.
If the season ended today would Buehrle win the Cy Young?
#5. Baltimore Orioles (Season Prediction #2)
Most predictions had the Orioles taking a real step back this year and finishing at the bottom of the division. They are certainly playing to prove them right. They are not out of it by any means, sitting at 8-9 through their first 17 games and are tied with Tampa Bay 2 games back. Difference between Tampa and Boston, Baltimore has had the 2nd easiest schedule in the East.
This is a team who's strength will be power in their lineup, but their bats have started slow. 3rd lowest plate appearances in the AL, 6th highest K%, worst BB/K ratio, 3rd lowest OBP. They've scored 66 runs so far this season or 3.88/game. But that includes a 14 run game against NY, otherwise they drop to 3.25 runs/game. Meanwhile their pitching is giving up 3.97 ERA.
Bright spots, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton have given the team a chance with some great pitching, but will take more than 1 starter and 1 reliever to compete in the tough AL East. Chris Tillman boasts an era 1.71, yet the team's starters ERA is 4.53. No other starter is below 4.4 ERA. They have a combined 97.1 IPs from their starters 2nd lowest in the AL and only 5 wins (also second lowest). To add salt to the wound, off season acquisition Ubaldo Jiminez has been the worst pitcher on the staff, posting an ERA over 6 through 21 IPs.
Luckily for them it appears no team in the East wants to win the division so they are still in it, but if they don't sort out their issues early, all the experts will be right and they will be well behind the pack in the playoff race.
Well it's been an unusually slow start for AL East teams, which makes this hard to write but great as a Jays fan who right now I'm happy they aren't out of contention by the end of April like 2013. Only 1 team has a winning record against teams .500 or better and that's Baltimore, the worst statistical team of the bunch. I think that sums up how interestingly weird the start of the season has been.
Sunday, 20 April 2014
Tuesday, 8 April 2014
2014 AL East Power Rankings - Day 1
Baseball season is officially started, so before we get too many games in and I get accused of cheating, here are the first power rankings of the season from Section 525.
Last year, i think i tried to compile some educated guess based on 2012 stats and preseason numbers. This year, I'm going to scour the internet for predictions and list them all right here and provide my own. As well as some key pieces of info for each team in the AL East.
Prediction #1 Courtesy of Fangraphs.com
90-72
Record 86-76
#5. Toronto Blue Jays
Key addition: Dioner Navarro
Key losses: J.P. Arencibia, Rajai Davis
This is going to be pretty straight forward. 2013 record 74-88. Now look above at what the Jays did in the offseason to improve to compared to all the other teams in the AL East that were already better than them. It's tough to believe they will do better.
Offensively their core is intact with Bautista, and Encarnacion power the way with 40 hr potential. Add a rejuvinated and healthy Melky Cabrera and hopefully hittin coach Kevin Seitzer can the most out of Brett Lawrie to give the Jays a threatening 2-5 among the best in the AL.
Finding depth and consistency will be the name of the game for this team. Last year, newly acquired players did not produce. When all of your off season acquisitions fail to produce you are no doubt going to finish last. I don't realistically believe that this will happen again. Dickey should return to something closer resembling his 2012 form, even 75% of his Cy Youn form should help the team. Addition to Melky being healthy should see him return to form.
Pitching is still a big question mark as the team failed to sign any of the pitchers they pursued in the offseason. Add to that, last year's #2 man Morrow had terrible spring and looks like he's hurt even if they won't admit it, and legitimately they do not have a 5th starter. Drew Hutchinson will be the most interesting start. After an impressive debut in 2012, he then had Tommy John surgery and ended his 2013 campaign. I think he has the most potential of any pitcher in the rotation and was lights out in spring (19ks, 4 BB) and I've predicted to have the most wins of any Jays starter at the All Star break. To sum up pitching, their biggest off season acquisition was Roy Halladay who signed a 1 day deal to retire, but until now (hope I'm proven wrong) is better than any 5th starter we can field at the moment.
One weakness, lack of pitching depth. Pitching won't win enough games for the team and they will once again rely on an inconsistent offense to win games. This and they once again are relying on injury prone Reyes and McGowan to provide much needed depth.
Saying all this i'm still predicting a record of 86-76
Last year, i think i tried to compile some educated guess based on 2012 stats and preseason numbers. This year, I'm going to scour the internet for predictions and list them all right here and provide my own. As well as some key pieces of info for each team in the AL East.
Prediction #1 Courtesy of Fangraphs.com
| 2014 Projected Full Season | ||||||
| Team | W | L | W% | RDif | RS/G | RA/G |
| Red Sox | 88 | 74 | 0.541 | 62 | 4.53 | 4.15 |
| Rays | 86 | 76 | 0.53 | 43 | 4.18 | 3.91 |
| Yankees | 83 | 79 | 0.511 | 17 | 4.36 | 4.26 |
| Blue Jays | 82 | 80 | 0.508 | 12 | 4.53 | 4.46 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 0.483 | -26 | 4.4 | 4.55 |
Prediction #2 Courtesy of Sports Illustrated
SI.com had 6 baseball writers pick the division winner and wild card.
#1. Tampa Bay Rays - 4 of 6 first place votes
#2. Boston Red Sox - 2 of 6 first place votes
#3. New York Yankees - 2 of 6 wild card votes
Prediction #3 Courtesy of Grantland.com
1. Tampa Bay Rays: 91-71
2. Boston Red Sox: 89-73
3. New York Yankees: 84-78
4. Baltimore Orioles: 81-81
5. Toronto Blue Jays: 78-84
2. Boston Red Sox: 89-73
3. New York Yankees: 84-78
4. Baltimore Orioles: 81-81
5. Toronto Blue Jays: 78-84
Prediction #4 Courtesy of Yahoo Sports
Yahoo actually has two staff writers that each made predictions
| Writer 1 | Writer 2 | |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | |
| Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | |
| New York Yanks | Baltimore Orioles | |
| Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | |
| Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yanks |
As you can see all but Fangraphs is predicting the Rays to win the AL East, but Fangraphs has used the most statistical analysis in their predictions, but I think it's clear who's the top teams going into the season.
On to my predictions.
#1. Tampay Bay Rays
Key additions: Grant Balfour, Heath Bell
Key losses: Sam Fuld, Kelly Johnson, Jose Lobaton, Fernando Rodney, Alex Torres
No surprise here and not just based on the above predictions. Last year they were my prediction to take the top spot and it was based on pitching. This year is no different.
Rays finished last season 2nd in the east in wins (65) and IP (965.1) by starting pitchers.
Last years rotation Price, Cobb, Moore, Hellickson with Chris Archer and Roberto Hernandez taking the majority of the 5th starts. This year's starting rotation Price, Cobb, Moore, Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi. All pitchers that started games for the team last year and the most solid returning top 3 pitchers outside of Detroit. If you thought they were good this year, Cobb is no longer a rookie and you have a full season of Chris Archer who in 23 career starts has 10 wins and averages over 7 k/9. If that's not enough, they have strengthed their bull pen with the return of Grant Balfour as closer and former NL closer Heath Bell.
One weakness, offense. In 2013 Rays were fourth in the AL East in runs scored, only ahead of the Yankees. They will be looking for a break out year from Wil Myers to prove he was worth the trade to KC for James Shields.
92-70
92-70
#2. Baltimore Orioles.
Key additions: Nelson Cruz, Ubaldo Jimenez
Key losses: Scott Feldman, Jason Hammel, Jim Johnson, Nate McLouth, Michael Morse, Brian Roberts, Francisco Rodriguez, Danny Valencia
Most people will say the Orioles have no business being in the 2 spot in the rankings. But this is my hunch pick of the season. Stats don't really support it and now there is a prediction called steamer that predicts ace Chris Tillman will drop from his 16 wins in 2013 to 14 in 2014. But I think he is a legit ace to lead the rotation in his 3rd season.
Offensively is their strength with 2013 HR champ Chris Davis in the 3 hole ahead of Adam Jones. Add newly acquired Nelson Cruz and home run threat Matt Wieters in a home run friendly park and you have a tough lineup to pitch against day in and day out.
One weakness, lack on depth. In Tillman gets hurt and that is not out of the question (threw the 7th most pitches out of AL starters in just his 2nd season), they will be turning to the likes of Zach Britton who's back in the bullpen following a missed season to injuries and then prospects Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy.
90-72
#3. Boston Red Sox
Key additions: A.J. Pierzynski, Grady Sizemore, Chris Capuano,
Key losses: Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Yes they won world series despite most people not expecting to even make the playoffs, and yes they were the best team in the AL all year. But I think all the does is give every other team hope that having the best team paper only counts on paper.
The starting rotation which was so strong last year will have to be even better in 2014. The biggest question is can Jake Peavy and John Lackey provide the depth in their rotation and provide 10+ wins each. We know their bull pen is strong, but without starting depth, that bullpen will get tired out no matter how good they are.
Offensively they still have a roster of good hitters that see a lot of pitchers and know how to get on base. They lead the AL in runs, 2nd in hits, 2nd in BB. But they are missing a key player to free agency when they lost lead off hitter Jacoby Ellsbury. Question will be, can Will Middlebrooks fill some of the void.
One weakness, age. Although they still have Ortiz, Napoli, Victorino, and most of their starting rotation from their championship team, their core players are all one year older and are the 2nd oldest team in baseball. How much is left in the tank of 38 year old Ortiz and 35 year old John Lackey. I was surprised to find that Victorino was only 33, he looks at least 47.
Record 86-76
#4. New York Yankees
Key additions: Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Brian Roberts, Masahiro Tanaka
Key losses: Robinson Cano, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Alex Rodriguez (suspension)
Key losses: Robinson Cano, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Alex Rodriguez (suspension)
Yankees do what they always do, following a losing season go out and sign the highest profile free agents they can. One of the big roster turnovers in MLB this season has the Yankees poised to regain its championship form or go right to the bottom of the standings as is often the case with season over season over hauls.
The loss of Robinson Cano will be the biggest felt to the team (27 HR, 107 RBI in 2013), but his offense should be replaced by newly acquired Jacoby Ellsbury (52 SB, .298 in 2013). Who in a park that is very friendly to left handed hitters gives Ellsbury a legit shot at returning to his 2011 numbers of 32 hr, 105 RBI, and 39 SB. Even if the home runs don't increase, additions of Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann should fill the gaps. In addition they will be formidable on the base paths with 30 30 man Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. Speed can cause headaches for opposing defenses and open up holes in the infield for hitters.
Increased offense might be necessary if the Yankees want to have a chance to compete with their current rotation. The Yankee's rotation consists of 33 year old CC Sabathia entering his 13th season, rookie import Masahiro Tanaka, and Michael Pineda who hasn't pitched since 2011. Sabathia although only 33 feels older and has diminshed velocity. If he cannot handle the workload he usually does, could see Yankee's turn to their bullpen that has been weakened by offseason moves. Tanaka who signed the largest deal for an import player since Darvish is yet to prove if he's the next Darvish (29 wins in 2 seasons) or Daisuke Matsuzaka (only 26 starts since 2011). Credit to Daisuke, he like Darvish had 33 wins through his first two seasons, so the lengthy 7 year deal to Tanaka could have a short shelf life.
One weakness, if not pitching, it's defense. The outfield is solid with speed from Ellsbury and Gardner but the infield is the opposite. Aging shortstop Derek Jeter has had reduced range at shortstop over the last couple season, but again loss of Cano leaves a whole at 2nd base. Brian Roberts was brought in to replace him on defense but that for sure won't last and he hasn't started more than 77 games since 2009.
Record 79-83
The loss of Robinson Cano will be the biggest felt to the team (27 HR, 107 RBI in 2013), but his offense should be replaced by newly acquired Jacoby Ellsbury (52 SB, .298 in 2013). Who in a park that is very friendly to left handed hitters gives Ellsbury a legit shot at returning to his 2011 numbers of 32 hr, 105 RBI, and 39 SB. Even if the home runs don't increase, additions of Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann should fill the gaps. In addition they will be formidable on the base paths with 30 30 man Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. Speed can cause headaches for opposing defenses and open up holes in the infield for hitters.
Increased offense might be necessary if the Yankees want to have a chance to compete with their current rotation. The Yankee's rotation consists of 33 year old CC Sabathia entering his 13th season, rookie import Masahiro Tanaka, and Michael Pineda who hasn't pitched since 2011. Sabathia although only 33 feels older and has diminshed velocity. If he cannot handle the workload he usually does, could see Yankee's turn to their bullpen that has been weakened by offseason moves. Tanaka who signed the largest deal for an import player since Darvish is yet to prove if he's the next Darvish (29 wins in 2 seasons) or Daisuke Matsuzaka (only 26 starts since 2011). Credit to Daisuke, he like Darvish had 33 wins through his first two seasons, so the lengthy 7 year deal to Tanaka could have a short shelf life.
One weakness, if not pitching, it's defense. The outfield is solid with speed from Ellsbury and Gardner but the infield is the opposite. Aging shortstop Derek Jeter has had reduced range at shortstop over the last couple season, but again loss of Cano leaves a whole at 2nd base. Brian Roberts was brought in to replace him on defense but that for sure won't last and he hasn't started more than 77 games since 2009.
Record 79-83
#5. Toronto Blue Jays
Key addition: Dioner Navarro
Key losses: J.P. Arencibia, Rajai Davis
This is going to be pretty straight forward. 2013 record 74-88. Now look above at what the Jays did in the offseason to improve to compared to all the other teams in the AL East that were already better than them. It's tough to believe they will do better.
Offensively their core is intact with Bautista, and Encarnacion power the way with 40 hr potential. Add a rejuvinated and healthy Melky Cabrera and hopefully hittin coach Kevin Seitzer can the most out of Brett Lawrie to give the Jays a threatening 2-5 among the best in the AL.
Finding depth and consistency will be the name of the game for this team. Last year, newly acquired players did not produce. When all of your off season acquisitions fail to produce you are no doubt going to finish last. I don't realistically believe that this will happen again. Dickey should return to something closer resembling his 2012 form, even 75% of his Cy Youn form should help the team. Addition to Melky being healthy should see him return to form.
Pitching is still a big question mark as the team failed to sign any of the pitchers they pursued in the offseason. Add to that, last year's #2 man Morrow had terrible spring and looks like he's hurt even if they won't admit it, and legitimately they do not have a 5th starter. Drew Hutchinson will be the most interesting start. After an impressive debut in 2012, he then had Tommy John surgery and ended his 2013 campaign. I think he has the most potential of any pitcher in the rotation and was lights out in spring (19ks, 4 BB) and I've predicted to have the most wins of any Jays starter at the All Star break. To sum up pitching, their biggest off season acquisition was Roy Halladay who signed a 1 day deal to retire, but until now (hope I'm proven wrong) is better than any 5th starter we can field at the moment.
One weakness, lack of pitching depth. Pitching won't win enough games for the team and they will once again rely on an inconsistent offense to win games. This and they once again are relying on injury prone Reyes and McGowan to provide much needed depth.
Saying all this i'm still predicting a record of 86-76
Tuesday, 4 March 2014
Guide to Spring Training
Spring training is on their way with less than 3 weeks left until the jays home opener.
To serious fans it's time to evaluate the farm system as well as project the 24 man roster. To everyone else it's a reminder that winter is almost over no matter how cold it still is outside.
Some like to over react to players' performances in the spring and either get their hopes up for the season or get ready to trade in their jersey for a leafs or this year a raptors jersey. But I'm here to warn people away from the annual over reaction. Like the players, the fans have some off season rust to work through from a viewers stand point.
Here are a few tips on how and what to watch for this grapefruit league.
Tip #1 - Nothing matters.
Okay maybe this is extreme but realistically a player can have a great spring and not make a big league club. Rosters are determined based on career performance, health and how much money a team has invested in you.
Baseball, more than any sport rewards consistency and if you've shown you can perform at the majors you will have an edge over any break out performance in March. Top prospects are paid big dollars to sign with a team when they're drafted in the first round. Call it stubborn, call it wanting a return on investment or call it arrogance to prove to the world they were right to draft that player, either way top picks are going to get more than their share of game time to show what they can do.
Really the only chance a player not previously on a big league roster has to make the club is with an injury to another player.
So with that, that whittles spring training down to approx 30 players that have a shot at heading north at the end of March.
For the rest, they are playing for experience and to make a team one beef grade higher than last year.
So, on to the big question. Out of the players with a legit chance, what do we look for to predict who's going to have a break out year and who are we going to see on the discount jersey rack?
For this I'll break it down into pitchers and hitters. Fielding isn't even considered in spring unless a guy can't throw from third to first. Might raise a flag or two.
Pitchers.
ERA, WHIP, xFIP, all those regular season stats, throw them out. Reason being, everything we know about pitching doesn't apply. In spring, pitchers are working towards the start of the season by building arm strength and stamina. To do this, they typically start by throwing mostly fastballs and slowly work their other pitches in as the spring goes on, saves on arm strain before the season. As a result in a game their pitch selection is completely different. You will see fastballs when a breaking ball should be thrown and vice versa. Thus all those stats that take into account hits and base runners are useless. Similarly, location and pitch selection don't really matter. Since starters throw 2 innings they can't officially get the win (wins don't count anyway), so changing speeds and location to get a batter out are not primary concerns. All a pitcher and catcher want to do is hit a certain pitch count and build chemistry for the season.
Now in saying all this, there are two key things to look for in performances as a gauge on how a player might perform come season opener.
#1. Velocity - even though above I mention pitchers are using the spring to build arm strength, they should be coming into spring with reasonable pop to their fastball. Any pitcher with big league potential should be throwing 88-91 to start the spring. As the weeks go on they gradually build to low to mid 90s. If your starting pitcher is throwing 86, that's cause for concern. Could be an injury, or lack of a full recovery from a previous injury.
Roy Halladay is a perfect example. The now retired pitcher went from top of his game to retired in 2 years. A dramatic drop in arm speed and power made him unable to pitch at the major league level. A guy who relied on throwing strikes to get guys out could no longer do that.
#2. Location - Control is always a key indicator. The entire minor league system is filled with guys who have "good stuff" or potential. Often you'll hear that a young pitcher can throw but needs to learn how to pitch. This refers to location and pitch selection. A 100 mph is no more effective than a 50 mph pitch if it's a ball (Nuke Laloosh anyone?). In addition if you can't throw strikes hitters are going to sit up there and wait for you to either walk them or throw a fastball right down the middle.
Another reason why control is so important as it indicates that a pitcher is able to repeat their delivery and everything is in sync. Pitchers with the longest careers are because they are able to do this. Buerhle is able to avoid injury because he can repeat his pitches over and over. His body works together and he avoids over straining his arm. Also it's no secret that strikes are the effective way to pitch. Keep pitch counts low and keep hitters guessing.
Speaking of hitters, brings us to how to evaluate a hitter's performance in the spring.
Hitters.
Frankly there is a lot less to evaluate here. Reason being, it's hard to judge hitting when you know they aren't facing pitcher's best stuff and frankly the majority of pitchers they are facing will not make the trip north in April.
The main goalof a hitter is to get their timing. Readjust after the off season to not only major league speed but also picking up the ball from a pitcher's delivery, something you can't practice with a pitching machine.
It's also for this reason I think taking walks is useless. You're not there to practice trotting down first but to swing. When Frank Thomas was playing he new how many swings he needed to get to form, not how many pitches he saw or at bats, but swings.
So you can see how player's are doing with their timing look at a few of the following.
1. Swinging strikes. - if a player is swinging and missing a lot he's obviously not reading pitches well. Not picking up location, break or just way off timing ahead or behind.
2. Balls in play - we are looking for hitters to be swinging and making contact. Ground balls and fly balls don't really make a difference but you do want to see line drives. That means they are right on top of the pitch and timing is right so they are getting power behind it.
3. Spray chart - It's always great to see hitter's using the whole field and showing power the other way, but be aware for a hitter going the opposite way too much. This could be that they are behind on the ball and swinging defensively. In the regular season we love a player who hits for average and gets on base or advances runners, but in spring we want to see aggressive hitting. If they are defensive now, it doesn't bode well when they are facing mid to high 90s in a clutch situation.
One more thing to note. Hitters returning to form after an injury or a noticeable improvement in areas of weakness. Two examples, Bautista's power and drive through the ball. Sure sign he's feeling healthy and taking the approach at the plate that's made him a premier power hitter in the game. And Lawrie's calm yet aggressive approach. Often criticized for being too aggressive and emotional, new hitting coach seems to have him going contact first and using he's physical strength to generate power, not swinging for the fences but letting weight, momentum and power through the hips carry the ball out and your hands and bat focus on contacting the ball.
So with this, you can now review the Jays stats and decide how you feel about the team ahead of the opener. I personally think they are going to be streaky and show signs of greatness, hopefully more than 11 games of it this year. But I think they will struggle when things get tough. Prediction roughly .500 with potential upside of finishing high 80s in wins.
Enjoy the spring and see you all in April.
Thursday, 20 February 2014
Olympics Day 14
We are through 14 days of the olympics, or at least I think it's 14, been kind of a blur as I've slept in front of my tv every night since it started.
Through those 2 weeks there have been some great moments. We are at 20 officially great moments with some senitmental favorites to add, but we'll save those for the "best of" entry. In today's entry, I will talk about what else, curling and hockey.
First of all curling. We've been treated (if you were watching) to some great curling matches on both men's an women's side including two great matches against China on the men's side. But Jennifer Jones has really risen to the occasion going undefeated in competition capping it off with a 6-3 win in the gold medal game and it was no doubt she was the best curler. Making some incredible shots in the tournament, and ultimately in the gold medal match, it came down to 2 key mistakes from Sweden that made the difference. But it was Jones's great play that continuely forces other teams to make incredibly difficult shots. Aside from her great play, her reaction and he inability to hide her emotions from when she couldn't hide a smile cleaning and recleaning her last rock, to watching the emotions come out as they knew the shot was good to eliminate the last Swedish rock. It's a sequence you can guartantee will be in CBC's montage when they close coverage of the games.
Not so secret highlight of the curling. Curling has quickly transferred to a yong and quite attractive sport. Thank you Russia for your team this year. Although not to fear people that think that they still have a chance to make the olympics as a 50 year old curler, people like Mirjam Ott of Switzerland are still around. Although seeing her lose the semis and her facial expression, she looked more like your best friend's mom losing than the other athletes at the game.
Now onto the biggest event of the day. Women's gold medal game. Canada winning a 4th straight gold in a dramatic 3-2 OT win. As this topic will be written about endlessly as possibly the hightlight of the games (even if the men win gold I don't see how it can be more exciting than today's game). There are a few thoughts I had on today's game.
1. Canadian woment have now won 20 straight hockey games at the Olympics including 5 straight games against the US. They can't seem to beat them outside of the Olympics, but when it matters most, Team Canada comes through. Even though today's game was the closest and the US did look to be the better team through a lot of the game they found a way to do it.
2. All the talk around women's hockey is that there just isn't enough depth and competition. I think the Swiss with their bronze medal and pushing Canada to the limit in the semi-finals shows that depth isn't that far off. Really there's not too much else that can be done than keep giving other nations experience on the world stage. With good performances, comes more funding at the grass roots level and then the sport grows. But the question I ask is, after today's game why do we want anything other than Canada/US in the gold medal match? It's a rivalry that grows and grows and always delivers and if anything, I want to see more of it. Can we just skip the round robin and go to a best of 7 Canada vs US for gold?
3. Tying in to though #2, as the women's rivalry grows so does the following. The clips from schools and bars (see deadspin's compilation) and even my work, of people stopping their day to watch the game looked as if we were watching the men's gold medal game. As much as IIHF is pushing the sport's growth internationally, it might not matter because it's growing in Canada and in the US too. This is now fully a marquee event on par with men's hockey and might as well make it a stat holiday because work isn't getting done.
4. Finally one more thought on the growth of the sport. As I was heckling back and forth with my American coworker during the game, she tried to recover from her defeat by reminding me that US is leading in the overall medal standings. And it all honestly, as much as we have a ton of pride and devotion to the olympics, it's no surprise the US has more medals as they should. I say they should purely based on the amount of money their country puts into sports and athletics. Frankly, Canada just doesn't have the money to compete at that level, but maybe if "Own the Podium" is real and we want elevate ourselves into an Olympic/sport super power, is it time we seriously examine sports scholarships to universities? This is how the US funds so many of their athletes in both summer and winter sports including hockey. As much shit as I'll talk about the US and gladly cheer in their face after winning a fourth straight gold, we really have them to thank. Not only for having a great program which pushes Canada to have a great program, but also because their funding of athletes and collegiate hockey is actually funding our players as well.
On the current roster, 7 players' current teams are US colleges including today's hero Marie-Phillip Poulin. Not to mention the other players that have now graduated and continue to play on our national team. We will gladly take their money, facilities and training to help our national team continue to have success. But should we have to have our future players travelling to the US to get the sufficient training and level of competition?
The "Own the Podium" program has funded athletes and programs $89 million dollars. Which is only about $3 for every Canadian. I know i've gotten my $3 worth from these olympics, just today alone was worth it. And I'm sure if you ask many Canadians, we are more than okay increasing this amount to continue to invest in sport. But at some point the well will run out of money and that's when collegiate sports come in. If this doesn't work, we can always have a Unicef type commercial to have people pledge to "Own the Podium". $3 is still less than a copy of coffee at a fancy coffee house.
Now I will close on a prediction. With the games coming to a close it's time to guess on who the flag bearer will be.
Top contenders
a. Denny Morrison (then having Gilmore Junio join him)
b. Virtue/Moir
c. Jennifer Jones
d. Humphries/Moyes
I'm guessing Morrison.
Through those 2 weeks there have been some great moments. We are at 20 officially great moments with some senitmental favorites to add, but we'll save those for the "best of" entry. In today's entry, I will talk about what else, curling and hockey.
First of all curling. We've been treated (if you were watching) to some great curling matches on both men's an women's side including two great matches against China on the men's side. But Jennifer Jones has really risen to the occasion going undefeated in competition capping it off with a 6-3 win in the gold medal game and it was no doubt she was the best curler. Making some incredible shots in the tournament, and ultimately in the gold medal match, it came down to 2 key mistakes from Sweden that made the difference. But it was Jones's great play that continuely forces other teams to make incredibly difficult shots. Aside from her great play, her reaction and he inability to hide her emotions from when she couldn't hide a smile cleaning and recleaning her last rock, to watching the emotions come out as they knew the shot was good to eliminate the last Swedish rock. It's a sequence you can guartantee will be in CBC's montage when they close coverage of the games.
Not so secret highlight of the curling. Curling has quickly transferred to a yong and quite attractive sport. Thank you Russia for your team this year. Although not to fear people that think that they still have a chance to make the olympics as a 50 year old curler, people like Mirjam Ott of Switzerland are still around. Although seeing her lose the semis and her facial expression, she looked more like your best friend's mom losing than the other athletes at the game.
Now onto the biggest event of the day. Women's gold medal game. Canada winning a 4th straight gold in a dramatic 3-2 OT win. As this topic will be written about endlessly as possibly the hightlight of the games (even if the men win gold I don't see how it can be more exciting than today's game). There are a few thoughts I had on today's game.
1. Canadian woment have now won 20 straight hockey games at the Olympics including 5 straight games against the US. They can't seem to beat them outside of the Olympics, but when it matters most, Team Canada comes through. Even though today's game was the closest and the US did look to be the better team through a lot of the game they found a way to do it.
2. All the talk around women's hockey is that there just isn't enough depth and competition. I think the Swiss with their bronze medal and pushing Canada to the limit in the semi-finals shows that depth isn't that far off. Really there's not too much else that can be done than keep giving other nations experience on the world stage. With good performances, comes more funding at the grass roots level and then the sport grows. But the question I ask is, after today's game why do we want anything other than Canada/US in the gold medal match? It's a rivalry that grows and grows and always delivers and if anything, I want to see more of it. Can we just skip the round robin and go to a best of 7 Canada vs US for gold?
3. Tying in to though #2, as the women's rivalry grows so does the following. The clips from schools and bars (see deadspin's compilation) and even my work, of people stopping their day to watch the game looked as if we were watching the men's gold medal game. As much as IIHF is pushing the sport's growth internationally, it might not matter because it's growing in Canada and in the US too. This is now fully a marquee event on par with men's hockey and might as well make it a stat holiday because work isn't getting done.
4. Finally one more thought on the growth of the sport. As I was heckling back and forth with my American coworker during the game, she tried to recover from her defeat by reminding me that US is leading in the overall medal standings. And it all honestly, as much as we have a ton of pride and devotion to the olympics, it's no surprise the US has more medals as they should. I say they should purely based on the amount of money their country puts into sports and athletics. Frankly, Canada just doesn't have the money to compete at that level, but maybe if "Own the Podium" is real and we want elevate ourselves into an Olympic/sport super power, is it time we seriously examine sports scholarships to universities? This is how the US funds so many of their athletes in both summer and winter sports including hockey. As much shit as I'll talk about the US and gladly cheer in their face after winning a fourth straight gold, we really have them to thank. Not only for having a great program which pushes Canada to have a great program, but also because their funding of athletes and collegiate hockey is actually funding our players as well.
On the current roster, 7 players' current teams are US colleges including today's hero Marie-Phillip Poulin. Not to mention the other players that have now graduated and continue to play on our national team. We will gladly take their money, facilities and training to help our national team continue to have success. But should we have to have our future players travelling to the US to get the sufficient training and level of competition?
The "Own the Podium" program has funded athletes and programs $89 million dollars. Which is only about $3 for every Canadian. I know i've gotten my $3 worth from these olympics, just today alone was worth it. And I'm sure if you ask many Canadians, we are more than okay increasing this amount to continue to invest in sport. But at some point the well will run out of money and that's when collegiate sports come in. If this doesn't work, we can always have a Unicef type commercial to have people pledge to "Own the Podium". $3 is still less than a copy of coffee at a fancy coffee house.
Now I will close on a prediction. With the games coming to a close it's time to guess on who the flag bearer will be.
Top contenders
a. Denny Morrison (then having Gilmore Junio join him)
b. Virtue/Moir
c. Jennifer Jones
d. Humphries/Moyes
I'm guessing Morrison.
Tuesday, 11 February 2014
Olympics Day 3
I was going to write my first olympic entry about how annoyed I was that the only news coming out of Sochi was more about toilets and small beds than the actual Olympics.
Not that this was a surprise. A heavy anti-russian attitude has been a growing feeling among western culture months leading up to the games and I was afraid this was going to translate into reports being more motivated to make Sochi olympics look like a joke and forget the main purpose of why they were there.
But Canada has had great success in the first 3 days, our greatest start ever to an olympics and these early medals have turned suspect photos of constructions which may or may not actually be related to the Olympics into images of great success and pride of course shiny gold, silver and bronze. And not a moment too soon. I've seen of enough shitter pics. If I wanted to see a Russian toilet, I would go to Russia.
The point of the Olympics is to celebrate sport in it's last true form. When it's not about millions of dollars or sponsors and we get to see the culmination of 4 years of training and dedication.
Now onto the highlights of the first 3 days.
1. Moguls of moguls.
4 of the 7 medals won by Canada have come on the moguls. Men's competition featured a dominant Canadian performance. Not only did Alex Bilodeau become the first back to back mogul gold medallist ever but also the rise of the next great Canadian mogul skier in Mikael Kingsbury who will be 26 for the 2018 games. We also saw a 4th place finish by Marc-Antoine Gagnon and just shy of all 4 Canadians making the 6 person final. We own moguls and were so close to sweeping the podium.
Aside from the Canadian performance the whole competition featured huge jumps, some good spills and about 20 guys flying down a course of ice bumps as fast as the could. In fact I would question if they were turning or just being bounced from mogul to mogul, the way most of us ski moguls, but don't stay on our feet.
The course made me think that the future of moguls will be a course were moguls pop up out of the hill trying to surprise a skier like a mine field. Maybe in the 2044 games.
2. Charles Hamelin
The short track skater started his attempt to become the most decorated Canadian Olympian ever with a gold in the 1500 m race. He has the potential to finish with 7 medals in his career and about 20 over the board kisses with his girlfriend. I bet she makes him wear his medals at home.
As much as I'm looking forward of rest Hamelin's races, I'm more looking forward to how he reacts when his girlfriend races. In true dude fashion it will be a fraction of the emotion.
3. JP Le Guellec near miss.
I was going to title this entry as "The Haves and the Almost Haves" but I do want to recognize JP's efforts in the biathlon. Not only has biathlon become my early favorite sport of these games, but JP is probably the best Canadian biathlete since Myriam Bedard was a double gold medallist. About time the sport with a gun got some recognition. JP had a great first race in the 10km sprint (nothing 10 km long should ever be called a sprint), but today he was in first place and looking strong before a fall on the toughest part of the track in tough conditions took him out of contention. But his efforts should be acknowledged and in a sport that Canada doesn't have a strong tradition in, you have to love how close he came.
Why don't regular cross country skiers switch to biathlon? It's just adding shooting a gun to the sport. If you ever find yourself in Whistler, B.C. Go to Callahan (whistler olympic park) where the 2010 biathlon was held. You can try the range and see how you do. For full experience ski 5 kms first.
Those are the 3 highlights of the first 3 fays for me.
Now there has been some questions around judging. Whether it's figure skating collusion (it's been 12 years since a good figure skating scandal, we're due) to the mysterious judging in slopestyle and even moguls. Not quite sure how Hanna Kearney took the bronze on an obvious mistake. It's been the one flaw in he games. To a regular viewer, it shouldn't be a mystery as to why one person wins and another doesn't. CBC, maybe you can help with this.
1 thing I learned so far.
In speed skating if you lift your foot off the ice to extend past the finish line, you're disqualified. You must keep contact with the ice with at least a piece of your blade.
1 event to watch coming up.
X-country skiing sprint. 4-6 skiers race a 3+km course much like ski-cross and it results in some great finishes. Format is equivent to short track speed skating with top two racers moving on from quarters to semis to finals all in one day.
Overall through 3 days, I'm fully caught up in olympic spirit and have taken to sleeping on a futon in front of my TV. I don't plan on going back to my regular bed until Feb. 23.
Until day 6 or the next time something wicked happens.
Saturday, 12 October 2013
MLP Playoff Power Rankings: Round 2 Championship Series
Let me start by saying that these playoffs are shaping up to be fantastic. If game 2 and game 5 of the Oakland/Detroit series aren't enough (Verlander is a machine), then because my round 1 power rankings were pretty spot on.
Let's recap.
Round 1 Rankings Advanced
#1 - Boston Red Sox
#2 - St. Louis Cardinals
#3 - Detroit Tigers
#5 - Los Angeles Dodgers
Only top 4 team to not make it through the divisional round, Tampa Bay Rays and they lost to the #1 seed, so not too bad. But I will stop tooting my own horn, an act not uncommon to people who watch, analyze and write too much about baseball.
In comparison, the MLB rankings based on the regular season record saw #1 Boston, #1A St. Louis, #6 Detroit, #7 Los Angeles go through.
So without further ado, the League Championship Series rankings and predictions.
Format will be a different, I'm going to analyze and predict the outcomes and will keep the seeds the same as round 1.
American League
#1 Boston Red Sox vs. #3 Detroit Tigers
This is going to be a great match up and very even. Both teams feature great shut down #1 and #2 starters and both feature lineups that can pose problems to pitchers through out the lineup.
Pitching: If the match ups were to be perfect, it would be Lester vs Scherzer and Verlander vs Bucholz and the advantage would go to Detroit. As the temperature drops hard throwing pitchers that run the ball inside on the hands are a hitter's worst nightmare. However, because Detroit had to go to a deciding game 5 and used Verlander for 8 magical innings, the match up is not perfect. Using Scherzer and Verlander twice means that we won't/shouldn't see them make an appearance until game 3. That means that they won't have enough time to rest and come back to make a 2nd appearance in the series. At best maybe see one of them start game 7 and the other make a relief appearance. Boston on the other hand can counter with Lester and Bucholz in game #1 and #2 and again #6, #7.
Advantage: Boston
Saving Grace for Detroit - their pitching depth is stronger. More likely to get a great start out of Sanchez or Fister than Boston is from Lackey or Peavy.
Hitting: Both teams bring great lineups to the plate. Boston and Detroit ranked #2 & #3 respectively in team average in round 1. Both teams had 38 hits (Boston played 1 less game) and Boston outscored Detroit 26-17 again in one less game played. If that's not enough, Boston leads the postseason in stolen bases. In a series that promises to feature great pitching, runners and runs will be at a premium and the ability to move runners into scoring position becomes even more valuable.
Advantage: Boston
Saving Grace for Detroit - Their power hitters get to enjoy a much more hitter's friendly park at Fenway and Fielder should see more success with Fenway's short porch in right field. They also have Cabrera and even injured, he's still one of the best hitters in the game.
Boston gets the advantage in hitting and although Detroit has a better starting rotation, they get an advantage with Detroit having to use their aces twice.
Prediction: Boston in 7
(disclaimer: I'm writing this while Sanchez just finished 6 no hit innings)
National League
#2 St. Louis vs #5 Los Angeles
Let's start with a mock headline "Wacha, Wacha, St. Louis is warm and Fozzie about Michael Wacha's postseason"
Pitching: St. Louis was a close #2 seed in round 1 power rankings to the Red Sox. But after round 1, they might deserve to be the #1 seed. What prevented me from giving them the #1 seed was questions around their pitching depth. Those are all but erased after seeing what Michael Wacha has been able to do so far, and Wainright has delivered as promised as an ace as good as anyone in the post season. Had I written this before the series started like a responsible and professional columnist, I would give the pitching nod to LA. But instead I'm a lazy, occasional blogger and I'm writing after game 2 has finished. They say hindsight is 20/20 and 20/20 vision is wicked, trust me I have it, and I'm going to use it here to give the pitching nod to St. Louis.
Not just because they won the first two games, but they did it against Greinke and Kershaw and without using Wainright and it's not like Greinke and Kershaw had bad outings. They had a combined 14 IP, 6 hits, 15 SO, 2 ER. If you get two starts of that calibre and you lose both games, you are in a bigger hole than 2-0. You are down 2-0 and with the question, how much better can you play? Not to mention St. Louis has the best ERA of any team through the divisional round.
Looking back I would have saved Kershaw for game 3. Even if you lose game 2 without him and are down 2-0, at least you are heading home with the best pitcher in the NL starting for you and giving you a legit shot against Wainright. Now you are down 2-0 and turn to either Capuano or Ryu. Neither pitched more than 3 IP and Ryu got hit hard giving up 12 earned runs in his only start.
Advantage: St. Louis
Hitting: LA lead the divisional round in team average at .333, mean while St. Louis was second last with .209. They faired much better at OBP with LA posting 2nd best .390 and St. Louis posting a 4th best .294 thanks in part to St. Louis walking 17 times (2nd only to Boston's 20). But the playoff rederick is, it's not the number of hits you get, it's when you get them and St. Louis is as clutch a team as anyone in October. Despite the low average, St. Louis was still 3rd in runs scored.
Despite St. Louis being the most clutch hitting team in the playoffs, LA leads in all major hitting categories and you have to hope that over a best of 7, they will get their chances and put up some runs.
Advantage: LA
Overall, with St. Louis up 2-0 and beating Greinke and Kershaw in the process, and Beltran showing no signs of slowing down as one of the best postseason players in history, I just don't see how LA can come back. At this point, I can only hope the rest of the series is as entertaining as the first two games.
Prediction: St. Louis in 5
That's it, enjoy the Championship Series and if you don't have a loyalty to any team, please just cheer for me to be right. It will make future readings better when you can trust that I know what I'm talking about.
Let's recap.
Round 1 Rankings Advanced
#1 - Boston Red Sox
#2 - St. Louis Cardinals
#3 - Detroit Tigers
#5 - Los Angeles Dodgers
Only top 4 team to not make it through the divisional round, Tampa Bay Rays and they lost to the #1 seed, so not too bad. But I will stop tooting my own horn, an act not uncommon to people who watch, analyze and write too much about baseball.
In comparison, the MLB rankings based on the regular season record saw #1 Boston, #1A St. Louis, #6 Detroit, #7 Los Angeles go through.
So without further ado, the League Championship Series rankings and predictions.
Format will be a different, I'm going to analyze and predict the outcomes and will keep the seeds the same as round 1.
American League
#1 Boston Red Sox vs. #3 Detroit Tigers
This is going to be a great match up and very even. Both teams feature great shut down #1 and #2 starters and both feature lineups that can pose problems to pitchers through out the lineup.
Pitching: If the match ups were to be perfect, it would be Lester vs Scherzer and Verlander vs Bucholz and the advantage would go to Detroit. As the temperature drops hard throwing pitchers that run the ball inside on the hands are a hitter's worst nightmare. However, because Detroit had to go to a deciding game 5 and used Verlander for 8 magical innings, the match up is not perfect. Using Scherzer and Verlander twice means that we won't/shouldn't see them make an appearance until game 3. That means that they won't have enough time to rest and come back to make a 2nd appearance in the series. At best maybe see one of them start game 7 and the other make a relief appearance. Boston on the other hand can counter with Lester and Bucholz in game #1 and #2 and again #6, #7.
Advantage: Boston
Saving Grace for Detroit - their pitching depth is stronger. More likely to get a great start out of Sanchez or Fister than Boston is from Lackey or Peavy.
Hitting: Both teams bring great lineups to the plate. Boston and Detroit ranked #2 & #3 respectively in team average in round 1. Both teams had 38 hits (Boston played 1 less game) and Boston outscored Detroit 26-17 again in one less game played. If that's not enough, Boston leads the postseason in stolen bases. In a series that promises to feature great pitching, runners and runs will be at a premium and the ability to move runners into scoring position becomes even more valuable.
Advantage: Boston
Saving Grace for Detroit - Their power hitters get to enjoy a much more hitter's friendly park at Fenway and Fielder should see more success with Fenway's short porch in right field. They also have Cabrera and even injured, he's still one of the best hitters in the game.
Boston gets the advantage in hitting and although Detroit has a better starting rotation, they get an advantage with Detroit having to use their aces twice.
Prediction: Boston in 7
(disclaimer: I'm writing this while Sanchez just finished 6 no hit innings)
National League
#2 St. Louis vs #5 Los Angeles
Let's start with a mock headline "Wacha, Wacha, St. Louis is warm and Fozzie about Michael Wacha's postseason"
Pitching: St. Louis was a close #2 seed in round 1 power rankings to the Red Sox. But after round 1, they might deserve to be the #1 seed. What prevented me from giving them the #1 seed was questions around their pitching depth. Those are all but erased after seeing what Michael Wacha has been able to do so far, and Wainright has delivered as promised as an ace as good as anyone in the post season. Had I written this before the series started like a responsible and professional columnist, I would give the pitching nod to LA. But instead I'm a lazy, occasional blogger and I'm writing after game 2 has finished. They say hindsight is 20/20 and 20/20 vision is wicked, trust me I have it, and I'm going to use it here to give the pitching nod to St. Louis.
Not just because they won the first two games, but they did it against Greinke and Kershaw and without using Wainright and it's not like Greinke and Kershaw had bad outings. They had a combined 14 IP, 6 hits, 15 SO, 2 ER. If you get two starts of that calibre and you lose both games, you are in a bigger hole than 2-0. You are down 2-0 and with the question, how much better can you play? Not to mention St. Louis has the best ERA of any team through the divisional round.
Looking back I would have saved Kershaw for game 3. Even if you lose game 2 without him and are down 2-0, at least you are heading home with the best pitcher in the NL starting for you and giving you a legit shot against Wainright. Now you are down 2-0 and turn to either Capuano or Ryu. Neither pitched more than 3 IP and Ryu got hit hard giving up 12 earned runs in his only start.
Advantage: St. Louis
Hitting: LA lead the divisional round in team average at .333, mean while St. Louis was second last with .209. They faired much better at OBP with LA posting 2nd best .390 and St. Louis posting a 4th best .294 thanks in part to St. Louis walking 17 times (2nd only to Boston's 20). But the playoff rederick is, it's not the number of hits you get, it's when you get them and St. Louis is as clutch a team as anyone in October. Despite the low average, St. Louis was still 3rd in runs scored.
Despite St. Louis being the most clutch hitting team in the playoffs, LA leads in all major hitting categories and you have to hope that over a best of 7, they will get their chances and put up some runs.
Advantage: LA
Overall, with St. Louis up 2-0 and beating Greinke and Kershaw in the process, and Beltran showing no signs of slowing down as one of the best postseason players in history, I just don't see how LA can come back. At this point, I can only hope the rest of the series is as entertaining as the first two games.
Prediction: St. Louis in 5
That's it, enjoy the Championship Series and if you don't have a loyalty to any team, please just cheer for me to be right. It will make future readings better when you can trust that I know what I'm talking about.
Friday, 4 October 2013
MLB Playoffs Power Rankings
Here it is, the first of 3 installments in MLB Playoff power rankings. I will make a new entry for each round.
First round are the 4 division series. For the record I'm not counting the play in games since I don't believe in them, but that's for another entry.
#1 - Boston Red Sox
This was a close one between St. Louis and Boston and it pains me to be ranking Boston as anything else other than garbage, but given the circumstances, I have no choice.
Despite the first few games that have been blowouts, playoffs always comes down to pitching. Boston's 1&2 starters, Lester and Bucholz have been as good as anybody in the league. What gives them the #1 overall? Consistency. They have been solid all year long. It does beg the question how well can they face adversity? But they have the intangible that no other team has and arguably the greatest weapon against adversity, Fenway Park.
Boston will no doubt have the biggest home field/crowd advantage in the playoffs.
1 negative - they might have the worst manager when it comes to crunch time and making those big decisions with the bull pen.
#2. St. Louis Cardinals
If finishing with the best record in the NL isn't enough and if winning 2013's best division in baseball isn't enough, then they have history on their side.
Cardinals are third all time in word series appearances with 18, including 11 wins, most recently 2011 and 2006 and experience pays off. Their lineup features hitters that understand that playoffs are about pitching and getting that one key hit a game. Just remember game 6 in the 2011 World Series.
Hitting wise they have more than their share of previous playoff heroes, whether it's David Freese or Carlos Beltran. And they look poised to step up again. Beltran is already getting named possibly the greatest playoff hitter of all time.
1 negative - compared to the rest of the teams, their pitching lacks depth. Adam Wainwright is a legit ace and can matchup against anyone, but the drop off from #1 to #2 is a question mark. Lance Lynn gave up 7 hits in 4.1 innings in game 2. Starting in game 3 is Joe Kelly. Who posted an impressive 2.69 era this year in 37 appearances. But he'll be starting against Liriano in Pittsburgh. PNC park in the play in game has been the best crowd we've seen so far. Can't wait to see this. If Kelly has a great start, they deserve this ranking. If he struggles, we could be poised for a first round upset.
#3 Detroit Tigers
This is a no brainer. Despite limping into the playoffs and only winning the AL Central by 1 game they boast the best 1, 2 combo in both pitching and hitting. Don't need to say much here, Justin Verlander is their #2. A Cy Young award winner and arguably the best pitcher in baseball did not start game 1. Instead it was Max Scherzer who finished the season 21 - 3 and at one point was 19-1. I don't think any kid has even claimed a record that good on the playground.
Hitting wise, well they have Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder not to mention Victor Martinez and Omar Infante who was a .280 hitter himself. That's a gauntlet to go through every 2 or 3 innings.
#4 Tampa Bay Rays
Call this a gut instinct, but pitching wins championships and the Rays have maybe the best starting rotation in baseball. Watching David Price in the tie breaker he sure looked like the pitcher of this year's playoffs who pitches on 3 days rest every time, there's one ever year. Alex Cobb had a great playoff start battling in a must win game on the road. You aren't going to have your best stuff every night but if you can win without it, you are looking good.
Tampa not known for offense has Evan Longoria and now Delmon Young who could become the unsung hero if Tampa can make it out of this round. Could be this year's David Freese or Cody Ross.
1 negative - they are playing Boston in Boston and outside of David Price, they don't have a pitcher to shut down lefties. Matt Moore was to be that guy but didn't show it in game 1. They also might have a weak bullpen. Rodney is not trustworthy on a good day.
This is getting long, should have just made predictions.
#5 LA Dodgers
This was a tough one because I really feel that the remaining teams are all very close. They all have a great #1 pitcher and some solid bats in the lineup. What they lack is depth in the rotation and they are all very young. In fact young pitching is a theme in this year's playoffs. But out of these remaining teams, dodgers have the best pitcher (Kershaw) and a well balanced lineup. Plus they have Puig who is only going to be more dynamic on a big stage. Biggest question mark, how will Greinke do? He's a great pitcher but outside of his one start with the Brewers he has no post season experience and struggled in game 2.
1 negative - momentum. They went on amazing run at one point they were 42-8 spanning just before the all-star break on. But they finished 5-5 over their last 10. Did they peak too soon?
#6 Pittsbugh Pirates
Who isn't cheering for the Pirates at this point? Unless you have loyalties to one of the 7 other teams (I hope you don't) you are jumping on this enormous band wagon.
Lineup with McCutchen, Alvarez, Martin and Morneau, it's impossible to cheer against them. Burnett maybe as a jays fan but that's about it. And that crowd? Forget about it. They way they rattled Cueto was amazing, can't remember ever seeing a pitcher so obviously affected as that.
Finally Gerrit Cole. Legit prospect and if he can have another start the way he did, he could be this year's Josh Beckett. 2003 Josh Beckett, when he broke onto the scene in the playoffs not Josh Beckett 2008 on.
1 negative - no experience. It can lead to losing your focus and making mistakes. We've seen this lead to them fading down the stretch in previous years. Hope the veterans on the team can lead them through it.
Side note, Morneau went from #33 with the twins because of Patrick Roy to #66 with the Pirates. Can't argue with that.
#7 Atlanta Braves
Outside of Tampa, the Braves are the best organization at producing young pitchers. Mike Minor looked great in his first start and they have maybe the best closer in tight games with Kimbrel. But who's going to be their ace that they throw out on short rest? And the bigger question, where are the bats?
Through 2 games there is more talk about Elliot Johnson being in place of Dan Uggla than talk about heroes. If the Uptons and Freeman don't step up, the streak of not winning a playoff series since 2001 will continue.
Blame the Sports Illustrated cover curse for the Upton's lack of production. Hope it doesn't get to Kate too.
#8 Oakland Athletics's
Every year they are a great story and prove that SABR metrics are real. What's not real is their chance to win the World Series.
Bartolo Colon is not a great match up if he's going to have to out pitch any other team's #1 or #2 pitchers. Cespedes become a household name at the home run derby but they will need more than that from a guy who hit .240 this year.
Their roster is good enough to win the west when you get to play Seattle and Houston and over 162 games OBP does pay off. But in a hyper concentrated month of ball when your opponents are only the best remaining teams, it's hard to produce the same way. This is why their regular season success hasn't been matched by post season wins.
That's it for the division series. Can't wait until round 2 when there's half the teams to write about and I get to back peddle on the ones I was wrong about.
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