AL East Power Rankings – Week 4

The AL East gets tougher and tougher with all but one team going 7-3 over their last 10 games.  Guess which team is the lone one out of the winning parade.

1.     Boston Red Sox – (Last Week 2)

The BoSox find themselves back atop the power rankings thanks to a 5 game winning streak and leading the division by 2.5 games over the Yankees.  After ending last week dropping 2 of 3 to the KC Royals, the Red Sox bounced back taking 2 of 3 against the A’s and then sweeping the Houston Astros.  The only thing keeping the Red Sox down right now is they have had the easiest schedule to date in the East and they are still only 6-6 against teams that are .500 or better.  I still expect this team to falter and come back to the pack a bit but in the mean time they are playing well and deserve the #1 spot.  Over the last seven days they lead the AL in runs, Avg, and SLG% and were second in OBP. 

If there is a weakness, it seems to be in plate discipline.  Red Sox had the 4^th highest strike out rate at 22.6% which was the worst in the division, but this has been a consistent issue for the Red Sox throughout the season, but it hasn’t slowed down their overall offense to date. 

What’s Gone Right – Their pitching staff lead by Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz who are a combined 9-0 in 10 starts with an average ERA of 1.73.  As a team they are first in wins, 3^rd in ERA, 1^st in strike outs.  The only two categories they rank outside of the top 5, complete games (6^th) and walks (13^th). 

2. New York Yankees – (Last Week 1)

If I write every week that Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay can’t sustain this pace, then eventually I’ll be right.  It’s double or nothing, and who’s really going to take that bet? We all know it’s true. 

Not too much to say about the Yankees, in fact they are 7-3 in the last 10 but their last 4 wins came against the Jays and in all 4 of those games they came from behind and the Yankees pulled out their secret weapon the shortest front porch in baseball and home run alley.  Saw Hafner hit a 3 run homer to tie a game that barely cleared the right field wall, and then saw Overbay hit a go ahead 2 run home run in the 7^th in the series final for a 3-2 win that again was a right field aided shot.  But the Yankees are more aware of their stadium then anyone else and they have built their team around.

Left handed heavy lineup that leads the league in Home runs, 3^rd lowest strike out rate, and pitching staff that has the 4^th highest ground rate and the 3^rd lowest walk rate.  But these are tangible stats that can change week to week and are as much dependent on their opponents as it is on the team.  What keeps the Yanks in the top 2 aside from these stats is the fact that they consistently win.  The Yankees win with players they aren’t supposed to.  They win with veterans when everyone else is stocking up on prospects and they win because they know what winning is and they know what players can get it done, and for all these reasons I dislike them. 

3.     Baltimore Orioles – (Last Week 3)

O’s stand 3^rd in the division 3 games back of first and a half game back of the 2^nd place Yankees. I actually had the O’s ranked second because frankly, this team is a great young roster with loads of potential and despite everyone expecting a drop off from their playoff season last year, it just hasn’t happened.  But then I started compiling stats and frankly the stats don’t support their record.  Offensively over the last 7 days, they were 2^nd in the AL in runs, 1^st in stolen bases, 4^th lowest strike out rate (best in the division).  Outside of these, they don’t lead the league in many pitching or hitting categories, but they are also aren’t last in many of them.  They are playing consistent all around ball. 

Where they do excel is defense.  Opponents have the lowest batting average on balls in play (BABIP), they’ve turned the 2^nd most double plays in the league, 3^rd fewest errors, and they have the fewest stolen bases against.  When the infield gets a chance to make a play they make it, the one negative is that they have the 3^rd lowest ground ball % in the AL.  Playing in the AL East they play in some of the most hitter friendly parks in the league and over the course of a full season, fly balls will start turning into home runs.  They have a great defense, they better make sure they get them ball or else this early success will quickly get away from them.

4.     Tampa Bay Rays – (Last Week 4)

Rays are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and look to have righted the ship.  The only reason they aren’t gaining ground in the division is that every other team in the division (not the Jays) also went 7-3.  Highlight of this last week for them taking 2 of 3 against the Yankees to help climb back to 1 game below .500.  Best news is that the starting pitching is on track to where it was expected to be before the season started.  Rays starters lead the league in innings pitched over the last week, 4^th in K/9, and the 4^th best BB/9.  Lead by Matt Moore who along with Boston’s Buchholz are the early Cy Young front runners, is 5-0 with a 1.13 ERA and a 10.69 K/9 rate.  Rays not surprisingly lead the league in IP by starters this season on the other hand Jays and the Astros lead in IP by relief pitchers. 

They still struggle offensively middle of the road average and OBP and high strike out rate, but they did see an increase in runs scored ranking 4^th in the league this week.  I don’t think their head coach (the old man from UP) will really care how they are getting their runs as long as they are getting enough to win, and with their pitching you don’t need that many. 

Final note, the Rays have the 3rd best home record in the AL, apparently having the worst home field is advantage.  Maybe it sucks the life out of their opponents, the idea that they have to be inside to watch a sport in Florida and it's not hockey.  Mystifying that's a dome in the state that hosts outdoor baseball in the winter.

5.     Toronto Blue Jays – (Last Week 5)

Hitting and poor fielding continue to lose games for the Jays.  The latest a 4 game sweep at the hands of the Yankees, more specifically the hands of Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay.  It was bad enough when those guys were helping us lose games when they were on the team, now they are doing it as members of the hated New York Yankees.

Maybe this lineup just isn’t as good as what we thought were going to get.  Sure, they are still signs of improvement.

1. They had the lead in all 4 games against the Yanks,

2. They made Hughes throw 111 pitches fouling off 25 pitches.  Extending at bats is the best way to wear down pitchers until they make a mistake.  But ultimately what should be have expected or what should be expect from this lineup?

Let’s look at our core hitters.

 

Arencibia and Rasmus are striking out at a rate of once for every 2+ at bats, and both are striking out at a rate of double the MLB average.  Bautista is fairing a bit better at a K every 4 ABs and a rate that’s 4% higher than the league average. And their career numbers aren’t that much better.  Arencibia 3.2 AB/SO at a SO% of 29.2%, Rasmus 3.8 and 23.8% and Bautista 4.4 and 19.20%.

The fact that these guys also all hit above the league average in home runs is great, but you just can’t have this many high strikeout rates on a team.  No wonder the Jays only score in a couple innings a game, the rest of the game they are striking out.  It’s like Joaquin Phoenix in Signs, just feels wrong not to swing, only these guys made it to the Majors and aren’t fighting Aliens. 

Additionally, these 5 players aren’t exactly known for having high averages.  Cabrera has the highest career average at .283 but this includes his numbers from last year on steroids and who knows what other years.  Here’s how they rank for career batting average.

Cabrera	0.283
Arencibia	0.274
Encarnacion	0.263
Bautista	0.251
Rasmus	0.242

In the end there just isn’t balance on this team.  You need to have your players that get on base so that your power hitters can drive them home.  At the moment, everyone is swinging for the fences and Toronto is looking more and more like Mudville.

*

Player	Year	PA	HR%	SO%	AB/SO
JP Arencibia	2013	96	8.30%	38.50%	2.5
	4 Yrs	991	5.20%	29.20%	3.2
	MLB Averages		2.50%	19.00%	4.7
Colby Rasmus	2013	83	4.80%	43.40%	2.1
	5 Yrs	2288	3.50%	23.80%	3.8
	MLB Averages		2.60%	18.80%	4.8
Jose Bautista	2013	78	9.00%	21.80%	4.1
	10 Yrs	3853	4.90%	19.20%	4.4
	MLB Averages		2.70%	17.80%	5
Edwin Encarnacion	2013	105	6.70%	16.20%	5.5
	9 Yrs	3827	4.30%	16.80%	5.3
	MLB Averages		2.60%	17.90%	5
Melky Cabrera	2013	109	0.00%	12.80%	7.1
	9 Yrs	3973	1.70%	12.10%	7.5
	MLB Averages		2.60%	17.90%	5

 

Hands off the Panic Button.

As the Jays entered last weekend against the Yankees they also enetered a pivotal point in the season.  Their first big stretch against the AL East and a chance to immediately erase the slow start to the season.  The results in the standings were less than desirable as they dropped 2 out of 3 to both the Yankees and the Orioles. 

Yes the bats continue to struggle and there is little tangible evidence in improvement at the plate.  They have found sound home runs here and there but not consistent enough to produce enough offense to win.  Currently they sit 2nd in home runs only behind the Yankees but they are still only tied for 9th in total runs scored and the teams OBP is still 2nd latest in the American League. 

Now, me along with most of the city that is following the Jays are on the edge of patience.  You have a percentage of the population that has gone over the cliff and written off the season along with Gibby and maybe even AA, but the majority of fans still lie somewhere between starting to panic and slightly losing hope, like Cameron Frye trying to roll back the odometer on his Dad's Ferrari. Hopefully this post and this season will end better than that did. 

Why I'm not hitting the panic button (Yet):

1. 2nd time's the charm. I'm not going to judge a team or a player based on their first series against an opponent.  There is a learning curve and adjustments need to be made especially for players switching leagues.  What's the true test is the second time they meet, when teams have had a chance to watch video on pitchers and hitters and make adjustments based on their last outing.  Watch a rookie pitcher next time they are called up.  They may have a great first few starts, but as soon as they face a team for a second time, major league veterans adjust and a rookie goes from being the next big thing to back to the minors (Major League III).  Baseball is a game of subtlties and it's the player that best perpares and adjusts that has the edge in a match up.  So as we head into the first series against a repeat team, watch for the players that make the adjustments, those are the ones that are going to turn their season around.

2. Sings of a Turnaround.  It's hard to believe the Jays are turning things around, they still cannot seem to provide offense in more than 3 innings in a game.  Dickey's start against Baltimore, Dickey only gave up runs in one inning but the Jays also only scored runs in one inning although they did threaten in the 7th, 8th and 9th.  The 2nd home loss against the Yankees they came back to force extras until an error caused them to lose the game.  2 of the games against Baltimore they came back. 1 loss was in the bottom of the 9th (error again) and one in extra innings.  In fact over their last 14 games they've only lost 3 games by more than 2 runs and 4 of their 7 losses in that stretch were by only 1 run.  Despite how bad they seem to playing they still have had a chance to win all these games.

3. World Baseball Classic.  This is a stretch but it greatly interrupted their regular spring training and most players have a set routine.  Pitchers have an inning count when they introduce new pitches.  Hitters have number of at bats until they feel their timing is right.  WBC threw a major wrench in that schedule for a lot of players, especially Lawrie who ended up hurt, it's not unreasonable to expect a slower than normal start. 

4. It's not how you start, it's how you finish (as Zenyatta).  You have to go back to 2008 when the Jays had as bad of start at 10-15.  They finished that season 86-76 and if there was a 2nd wild card spot then they would have only been 3 games back. Jays currently sit at 9-14, you will need 90+ wins to have a shot at the playoffs, that means they need to go 81-58 for the remainder to have a shot, they have 44 losses to go which puts them in the neighbourhood of 1 loss for every 3+ games. This sounds like a tall task, and frankly it is, but once this team gets some production it would not surprise me at all to see them come close to winning every sereies. Outside of the Rays and supposedly the Jays there is no other rotation that is a deep enough to really shutdown an offense over a full 3 game series. As terrible as the Jays are playing, they still have yet to be swept.  Not good enough for you, look at the 2007 Colorado Rockies, what a rag tag bunch they were.  They started the season 9-13, finished 90-73 and made it to the world series. 

5. Just for Change, be positive Toronto.  We're so used to being negative and our teams losing, but the Leafs made the playoffs, so anything can happen.  It wouldn't kill us to be positive and if we can believe that Toronto is on the verge of turning the season around, maybe Toronto is on the verge of turning its sports fortunes around.  If nothing else, being positive will mean less fights in the stands and we won't lose any leverage on making fun of Vancouver for their post Stanley Cup Riots.  Do it for bragging rights that we are better people.

AL East Power Rankings - Week 3

This week in power rankings we see some more frustration from the current Blue Jays as well as Blue Jays past coming back to haunt us and once again we see that the AL East is one of the toughest divisions to play.

1. New York Yankees - (Last Week 3) Record through 04/21 10-7

Led by the resurgent Vernon Wells who hit .500 over the weekend (I hope that's the last time I write that) the Yankees continue to get great hitting from their line up of misfits and last minute aquisitions who were desperation fill ins for the injury riddled starting line up. Travis Hafner, Wells, Cano and even Francisco Cervelli are all batting over .300.  So how are they doing it?  Except for Cano none of these players were projected to hit any where close to .300.  But they have the best OBP in the division and when you are consistently getting the lead off hitter on base, it forces pitchers to pitch to hitters they would usually pitch around.  One or two hot hitters can really boost the line up around them until they become a confident group.  A tribute to plate discipline this team is ranked in the top 3 in the AL in 8 different hitting categories. 

Pitching wise, their 1, 2, 3 starters (Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte) are a combined 8-2 with an average ERA of 2.31.  The only reason they are 10-7 and not first in the division, their 5th and 6th starters have a combined record or 1-3 and an ERA of 6.29.  This is an area of concern as the top 3 starters are 32, 38, 41.  I don't know how they will manage if or when one of these players gets injured.  But then again, I don't know how they are really doing so well right now. 
 

2. Boston Red Sox - (Last Week 1) Record: 12-6

After a great start the Red Sox came back down to earth this weekend losing both games in a double header to the Kansas City Royals, the only team the Jays have won a series against. What's interesting about the Red Sox, despite their great start, they are still only 1.5 games up on the 2nd place Yankees and they are only 5-4 at home.  The really telling stats which brings them down to 2nd this week, is the are 4-5 against teams that are .500 or better and 8-1 against teams that are under .500.  These are games you are supposed to win, but if you want win the AL East you will have to beat the good teams and the bad.  Currently the Red Sox have had the easiest schedule, good for them for taking advantage but good for everyone else, this first month has all the makings of a team that might drop back to the middle of the pack come June and July. 

Batting wise, over the last  7 days they have struck out the most times in the AL and that includes the Houston Astros, for this stat alone I should put them at the bottom of the power rankings. In addition they only had a better team batting average than the Blue Jays in the division.  This could be indicative of a tough match up in their series and the Royals pitching has been decent this season, posting good ERA and the 3rd best k/9.  So although this is not the way you want your hitting stats trending, there is no reason to be alarmed, yet.

3. Baltimore Orioles - (Last Week 2) Record: 10-8

Tied with the Yankees for the hardest schedule to date, the Orioles are sitting 2 games back in the division.  Offensively they are only slightly behind the Yankees in most stats and are in the top 3 in R, HR, Avg, OBP and this shouldn't be a big surprise as both New York and Baltimore play in hitter friendly parks. However they aren't taking advantage of their offensive home field advantage as they are are only 5-4 at home, which can be attributed to the their mediocre pitching.  

They have the 6th highest ERA in the AL and an even worse FIP (ERA factoring in defense) they have the 4th highest BB/9 and the 4th lowest k/9.  Unlike the Yankees these stats aren't a result of one or two players bringing down the average.  They don't have 1 starter with an ERA lower than 3.38 and Jason Hammel is the only pitcher with a winning record at 2-1.  Simply put this team will have to find a better balance and will need these young arms to show some consistency if they want to return the post season.


4. Tampa Bay Rays - (Last Week 5) Record: 8-10

Although the Rays find themselves 4th in the division and 4th in the power rankings, they seem to be a team on the upswing.  Winners of 3 in a row (4 if you include Monday's win).  And they are getting it done with their pitching.  Over the last week, they have the most innings pitched from their starters.  Their starters are also putting up an 8.93 k/9 vs a 2.3 BB/9.  Pitching is the engine of this team and if they continue to pitch the way they have this past week, they will quickly jump up the standings and the rankings.

If you had to bet on the AL Cy Young award, Matt Moore is the early favorite 3-0 with an ERA of 1.00.

Offensively they are starting to get good production, only 1 total hit less than the Yankees over the last week, and have the most HRs.  After a slow start a good stretch to turn things around is exactly what this team needs to get back on track and sitting 4 games back in the East they could be back on top of the power rankings by May. 

5. Toronto Blue Jays - (Last Week 4) Record: 8-11

No fancy stats needed here (i'm giving them to you anyway) the Jays are playing like the worst team in the division.  That's not to say they are the worst team, but they are certainly playing like it.  They literally threw away a hard fought, come from behind win on Saturday, Bonifacio continues to struggle and Kawasaki's value has diminished to just enteratinment value. 

Offensively over the last 7 days they are last in the division in Runs (25), Avg (.240) and OBP (.294) and overall this season they are 10th or worse in the AL in 7 offensive categories.  With a team that is supposed to be stacked with good hitters, why are they hitting so poorly?  If the Yankees are on top of the rankings because of good plate discipline, they Jays are on the bottom for the same reason.

They have the highest swinging percentage for pitches out of the zone (i.e. balls) yet they have the second lowest contact percentage for these pitches out of the zone.   They also have the 4th highest first pitch strike percentage against.  Simply put, hitters are falling behind the counts early and they are letting pitchers dictate the at bat and it results batters chasing bad pitches. 

The bright spot is the pitching has greatly improved.  Dickey was lights out, going 6 innings on only 64 pitches, and giving up 0 runs and 1 hit.  Buehrle threw 13.1 innings over 2 starts with 10ks and only 3 walks.  That's more like the Buehrle that was expected.  But without any offense, great starts are useless when there is no run support.  Johnson on Sunday was pitching very well giving up 2 runs until he had a bit of a meltdown and walked in 2 batters but until a late rally it looked like those runs might be the difference.  What's tragic, is these pitchers can't afford to even have one bad inning as the offense has provided terrible run support.  That adds unnecessary pressure to these starters to be perfect.  Further more even when they put balls in play, the defense has not been helping them out. 

The Jays are last in errors in the AL and 5th worst in fielding percentage, both are good for last in the division.  As a team they simply give up too many free runs, and with the lack of offense, they can't afford to.  Alone Bonifacio and Izturis have combined for 7 errors, the same as the entire Baltimore Orioles team.

One bright spot  is in the games on Saturday and Sunday, they came from behind.  That shows character and even though things aren't going their way, they are still fighting.  Now if only these runs could come early so they could let their pitchers and fielders relax a bit.

Coolest thing I learned all week:  The last black ball player who played before being banned and before Jackie Robinson in 1946 was a Canadian by the name of Hippo Galloway.  Who was also the first black professional hockey player. He played a hockey game in 1899 for Woodstock of the Central Ontario Hockey Association. 

Highlight of the Week: Boston returns to Fenway after last weeks events and Ortiz drops a bomb of his own (too soon?)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=lqD8iN03W6M&NR=1

Jays Highlight of the Week: The Leafs made the playoffs, Toronto can go back to not caring about the Jays and maybe that will help them win.

AL East Power Rankings - Week 2

It's still early in the season so the teams are not seperated by much and the AL East is shaping up to be a tight race.  In fact by the time I finish writing this, if the Jays can hold on to their 2 run lead they might jump up in the standings.  We also see last week's rankings almost completely flip flop. 

1. Boston Red Sox - (Last Week 4)

As much as it pains me to see this team ahead in the standings especially with Farrell leading the team, they are getting it done on the field.  They have the best run differential in the division and they are getting it done in a total team effort.  Not being lead by one or two power hitters.  They have the most RBIs in the division but the 4th lowest number of home runs. They are also making opponent pitchers work as they rank first in pitches per plate appearance (PPA).  On the other side of the diamond, they have received great pitching from their 1 & 2 starters Lester and Bucholz.  They are a combined 5-0 in 6 starts and even if you combine their ERA it's still only 1.83 (give me that ERA). 
Now they do still have issues as their pitching drops off dramatically after that, but so far it's not prevented them from leading the division. 

2. Baltimore Orioles - (Last Week 2)

I was going to put the New York Yankees in the 2 hole but really they belong in the pooh hole.  What is keeping Baltimore in the 2 spot are the 2 come from behind victories in Boston this past week off of struggling Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan-a-ding dong.  But other than Boston they are the only other team to not have a losing record against teams that are .500 or better. 
Ultimately I just don't see them winning the division.  Offensively they are middle of the table, 2nd in average, 3rd in RBIs, 4th in walks, 3rd in Ks.  If you want to win the AL East, you can't be mediocre and Chris Davis cannot carry the team alone, ultimately he will slow down and someone else will have to step up.  Adam Jones is having another good year average wise and putting up 11 RBIs, but ask the Angles, you need contribution through out the line up to win the division.

In addition their pitching has struggled to get on track aside from their bullpen duo of Jim Johnson (ERA 0.00, 5 saves) and Darren O'Day (ERA 0.00, 3 holds) they can come back in a game but rarely give up late inning come backs.  Enjoy it while it lasts Baltimore.  After watching the wire, i'm renaming the warehouse in Camden Yards to the vacants. 

3. New York Yankees - (Last Week 5)

Yankees sit second in the standings, which is really disappointing, was looking forward to a good season of seeing them in last place.  I guess I'll always have Seinfeld DVDs to watch Frank Costanza yell at Steinbrenner for tading Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps.  But instead they lead the division in most offense categories (runs, RBI, HR, Avg) and they are doing it with a veteran line up.  The reason they are sitting only in 3rd is simply, despite starting the season better than anyone expected, they are only 6-5 and really can't imagine they are going to improve on their offense.  This plus their stars don't look any closer to returning to the lineup.  In fact Jeter's rehab has gone backwards, taking less batting practice and still suffering from pain when he runs.  In addition, ARod is facing some serious off field issues with reports that he tried to purchase documents that linked him to more steroid use including HGH. 

On the positive side, they are getting about as much as they could hope out of their top 3 starters, but they will need a better bull pen since Pettitte and Kuroda are north of 38 and the age shows in their in ability to pitch deep into games on a consistent basis.  Ultimately it might take a reverse Jay Buhner trade to make the Yankees a legit threat this season.

4. Toronto Blue Jays - (Last Week 3)

Jays drop 1 spot in power rankings this week despite starting to win some games.  After taking 2 of 3 against the Royals and getting back to back good starts from Dickey and Morrow they still show struggles on the offensive side.  Their win on Saturday came on just 2 hits one a home run by Bautista who then starts the new week being scratched from the lineup for back spasms, this in addition to losing Reyes for what now appears to be 8-weeks instead of the original 12.  The good news is Encarnacion is starting to swing his bat better and Lawrie looks to be close to a return has things looking up.  Plus this bit of adversity in the beginning of the season might be just what the Jays need to build a championship dressing room.  They started the season and can't help but feel like the favorites, now with a bad start and losing their best player, they are learning what it takes to win, and I think this will pay off when they are playing tough, must win games. If you want an in depth analysis of the Jays season start, the post from Saturday has it all, READ IT.

5. Tampa Bay (Last Week 1)

Simply put the stats say it all.  4-7 record, they're 2-6 against opponents who are .500 or better and they are the worst team in terms of runs and average.  We always knew they were going to struggle offensively, what we didn't expect was that their defending Cy Young winner would have an ERA 5.82 ERA and yet to earn a win.  The positive, Matt Moore and Alex Cobb are off to great starts with a combined 3-1 record and 1.93 ERA, Moore has a 0.00 ERA and he's a starter, he is in fact playing isn't he? Tampa is very cautious with their young pitchers and very concious of developing their arms, so pitch count will impact them this team will need to get better quality pitching from the rest of their starters, they simply can't rely on a rookie and sophmore to take on the whole work load.

Tampa and Toronto seem to have similar issues, pitching hasn't been what they expect and offensive struggles are keeping them at the bottom of the AL East in the stat that means the most, wins.  If the Jays and the Rays were tied in the standings I would still put them at the bottom, if for nothing more than their shitty stadium.

Picture of Week:  Miam Marlins stadium where they are kicking fans out for protesting. 

Highlight of the Week: Yankees turning a Triple Play on a ball that doesn't even leave the infield. 

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=26240819&topic_id=9674738&c_id=mlb

Jays Highlight of the Week: Arencibia's 3-run double to complete a 5 run comeback against the Tigers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCbI0TbwFus&noredirect=1

Replacing Reyes Item #151 on Today's Glitch List: JP3D inspired view of the problems of the Blue Jays.

Jurassic Park 3D was released in theatres last week, and as I watched John Hammond's dreams crumble I can't help but draw comparisons between the start of the 2013 Jays season and the ill fated Jurassic Park.

In honour of the re-release this blog entry will be the top 4 items on today's glitch list.  On the bright side, the Jays do not have all the problems of major theme park and a major zoo.   And although the Reyes injury seems gloomy, you will see we have other issues and if we fix these we can over come the Reyes injury, Anthopolous has engineered the team that way. 

So grab your melting ice cream and some cool, expensive night vision goggles and enjoy this entry.

Item #4: Defense

Jays have the 4th worst fielding percentage in the AL and the worst in the AL east.  Now sometimes percentages early in the season are misleading since we are looking at a small sample space, but the Jays also lead AL East in total chances, so we have the worst percentage and the largest sample space.  To make matters worst Tampa, Boston and the Yankees rank 2nd, 3rd and 5th respectively in best fielding percentage in the AL.  The Jays also rank last in the AL with a -1.9 ErrR (pronounced ErrR).  Simply put the Jays give up 1.9 more runs on errors than the league average and overall they are giving up 2.3 more runs than the league average (also worst in the AL). 

As Hammond learned the hard way he relied too heavily on bad personnel like Denis Nedry, next time things will be more automated. The Jays don't have this luxury you have nothing else to rely on to make plays and save runs then your players.  So who are our Denis Nedrys?

Lind, DeRosa, Izturis, Bonifacio, Cabrera all are playing below the league average on defense.  The table below shows DRS* (Defensive Runs Saved), # of plays, ErrR (error runs above average), UZR (defensive rating against the league average), and UZR/150 (UZR projected over 150 games). Stats pulled from www.fangraphs.com

Player	Pos	DRS*	Plays	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150
Adam Lind	1B	-1	2	0.1	-0.3	-19.4
Maicer Izturis	3B	-1	5	-0.2	-0.3	-37.6
Mark DeRosa	3B	-2	6	-0.6	-0.5	-26.7
Mark DeRosa	1B	-1	1	0	-0.8	-124.3
Emilio Bonifacio	2B	-2	16	-2	-1.1	-29.1
Melky Cabrera	LF	-1	13	0.1	-2.1	-53.9

 *DRS - how many more or fewer successful plays a defensive player will make than league average. For instance, if a shortstop makes a play that only 24% of shortstops make, he will get .76 of a point (1 full point minus .24). If a shortstop BLOWS a play that 82% of shortstops make, then you subtract .82 of a point. And at the end, you add it all up and get a plus/minus.” (Joe Posnanski, Sports Illustrated)

Some relief was expected with Lawrie getting closer to a return, meaning Izturis or Bonifacio would no longer be a starting infielder.  Now with the Reyes injury, looks like Izturis will take over at shortstop so will be dealing with a questionable middle infield until maybe the All Star break (worst case scenario).  Let’s hope it’s not a worse case scenario since Reyes was our best defensive player.

Which brings us to

Item #3 Injuries/depth:

Jays fans know all too well the negative impact injuries can take on a ball club.  2012 they ranked 6^th in most days lost to the DL.  Injuries are going to happen, they happen every year to every team.  Hoping it doesn’t happen to your team is well, a waste of time like Hammond thinking he had control over the power, it’s all an illusion. The best thing you can do is plan for it by building depth in your organization.  Jays have not done this.  Trading away most of our major league ready prospects for our current roster took us from being one of the best teams in terms of depth to what seems like one of the worst (for the record I do not regret any of the off season trades).  Where we do excel is current starters that can play multiple positions.  Bautista and Encarnacion have both spent time at 3B, Bonifacio can play almost every position (although my above argument shows not well), and Izturis and DeRosa are both flexible in the field.

Good article on teams that have planned for injuries http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130410/oakland-athletics-depth/index.html

What hurts the most is losing a guy like Reyes.  He was a spark plug for the team, bringing great on field energy and it was obvious to anyone watching the games his energy and attitude are appreciated by his teammates.  Last night was the first time this season we’ve seen him on the field and not smiling.  Now it’s impossible to replace his league leading 5 SB, .395 average, .465 OBP with one player.  There are only a handful of Reyes type players in the league and as we saw they come at a high price to obtain.  As much as I’m disappointed by his loss, it’s up to the Jays to find their Lex and Mr. Arnold.  They don’t have the skill of a Nedry, but in a pinch they can get that system back online. 

Why I’m not worried the Jays will see too much drop off in offense is despite Reyes high OBP he’s nowhere near the league lead in runs.  In fact for the 20 times he’s been on base, he’s only scored 5 times.  We just aren’t getting the hits behind him.  Once we get the heart of the line up hitting, then Reyes can be replaced by finding a player that has a high OBP and a bit of speed and we should be able to replace his offensive production in terms of runs.  

At least we have yet to lose a person to a Raptor attack.  In fact, that injury is what lead to the serious investigation of the stability of the island.  

What would happen if you went to use the oddly placed toilet outside the T-Rex paddock and the computer car left without you?  Add that to the list of problems, somewhere between the headlights and the fact that you can just get out of a car and walk up to a Triceratops. 

Item #2: Offensive Production

As shown in item 3 whoever is the new leadoff hitter (probably Bonifacio or Cabrera) you need to start getting hits from the 3, 4, 5 spots.  Cabrera has really improved to get his average up to .300 after a rough start, but Bautista and Encarnacion are struggling.  They along with Lind have the worst averages on the team, they lead the team in hitting into double plays, and Bautista has a ratio of 1.25:1 ground outs to fly outs.   Generally you would like your best home run hitter to hit more balls in the air than on ground. 

I’m not going to get into the data of Bautista getting bad calls on strikes because umpires hate him or so the rumour goes, but he does have to learn to adjust and make something happen at the plate.  And frankly Gibbons could help him out by adjusting the order, sliding Arrencibia in between the two or even Cabrera.  That way pitchers will be forced to throw more strikes and not risk putting Bautista on base with our HR leader and a .300 hitter coming up behind.  Not even the best raptors can hunt successfully without the other two raptors ambushing.  Right now the Jays look more like 6 foot turkeys.

If we can get more production from these hitters and some more early runs, maybe this will relax our pitchers giving them a bit of cushion to work with.  It’s not a secret the best pitchers in the league tend to have the most run support.

Item 1: Pitching

Quite simply put, Jays starting pitching has been ineffective.  It’s pretty clear that Jays are among the worst in ERA and WHIP, but there are some more telling stats as to why we are seeing proven pitchers in this league struggle so much.  Here are a few.

The most effective way to pitch in baseball is by being aggressive and getting ahead in counts.  When you control the count, it makes it much harder for a hitter to sit on a pitch.  Any hitter in the majors can hit a fastball if they know a fastball is coming.  Jays’ pitchers are 2^nd last in the AL in first pitch strike percentage, i.e. they are immediately falling behind in counts.  They are also 10^th out of 15 teams in total strikes thrown.  The more you get ahead in counts, the more batters have to become defensive and can’t afford to take borderline pitches.  A pitch on the corner which you can risk taking as a strike in a 2-1, 3-1 count has be to swung on in a 1-2, 2-2 count.  So it’s not surprising that the Jays are also 2^nd last in percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone. 

Grant, Sadler and Malcolm aka Buehrle, Dickey and Johnson were brought in because they are experts and so far the only one on our side is the blood sucking lawyer aka Happ.  Let’s hope Johnson and Happ’s health fair better than Malcolm and especially the Lawyer.  

Now, as much as the pitchers need to help themselves out by throwing more strikes and more strikes early, baseball is a team game similar to how other players in the lineup can help our struggling batters, other players in the field can help our pitchers.  The Jays may be last in the AL in ERA but they don’t have to be.  If the Jays improved their defense this would dramatically help the pitchers.  If their defense was at the league average the Jays projected ERA is 5.24 (This is called FIP - measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average).  Only the Minnesota Twins have a larger difference between their FIP and ERA. This may seem like Pitching should fall lower on the list, probably after defense but the fact is the FIP is till 5.24 which still puts them 3^rd worst in the AL.  

The pitchers are obviously struggling with execution, but this happens with all pitchers.  Not every game your a curve ball going to be working for strikes.  Your go to pitch isn’t always your go to.  In games when it’s not working, you have to grind it out and change the times at which you use it.  This is called pitch selection and setup pitches.  How a great change-up can setup a fastball by messing up a batters timing and perception, pitch selection is what usually turns off days to wins.  This responsibility falls on the catcher and the pitching coach.  It would certainly appear that Arencibia and Pete Walker have not been managing the game well.  Hitters seem to know what pitches are coming and then putting them in play.  This also might explain why all our pitchers are struggling.  In their defense, this is Pete Walker’s first stint as a pitching coach in the Majors and well Arencibia was never in the line up for his defensive abilities as much as his bat.  But these guys better learn quick.  Thole’s been tearing up AAA with his bat and is much better at catching.  

So maybe the best way to describe the Jays 2013 season so far is two no shows and one sick Triceratops.  Again the Chaos Theory proves true, Malcolm is really getting tired of being right all the time.  But let’s hope life finds a way and the Jays talent will not be contained. 

Spared no expense!