MLP Playoff Power Rankings: Round 2 Championship Series

Let me start by saying that these playoffs are shaping up to be fantastic.  If game 2 and game 5 of the Oakland/Detroit series aren't enough (Verlander is a machine), then because my round 1 power rankings were pretty spot on.

Let's recap.

Round 1 Rankings Advanced
#1 - Boston Red Sox
#2 - St. Louis Cardinals
#3 - Detroit Tigers
#5 - Los Angeles Dodgers

Only top 4 team to not make it through the divisional round, Tampa Bay Rays and they lost to the #1 seed, so not too bad.  But I will stop tooting my own horn, an act not uncommon to people who watch, analyze and write too much about baseball.

In comparison, the MLB rankings based on the regular season record saw #1 Boston, #1A St. Louis, #6 Detroit, #7 Los Angeles go through.
 So without further ado, the League Championship Series rankings and predictions.

Format will be a different, I'm going to analyze and predict the outcomes and will keep the seeds the same as round 1.

American League
#1 Boston Red Sox vs. #3 Detroit Tigers

This is going to be a great match up and very even.  Both teams feature great shut down #1 and #2 starters and both feature lineups that can pose problems to pitchers through out the lineup. 

Pitching: If the match ups were to be perfect, it would be Lester vs Scherzer and Verlander vs Bucholz and the advantage would go to Detroit.  As the temperature drops hard throwing pitchers that run the ball inside on the hands are a hitter's worst nightmare.  However, because Detroit had to go to a deciding game 5 and used Verlander for 8 magical innings, the match up is not perfect.  Using Scherzer and Verlander twice means that we won't/shouldn't see them make an appearance until game 3.  That means that they won't have enough time to rest and come back to make a 2nd appearance in the series.  At best maybe see one of them start game 7 and the other make a relief appearance.  Boston on the other hand can counter with Lester and Bucholz in game #1 and #2 and again #6, #7. 

Advantage: Boston

Saving Grace for Detroit - their pitching depth is stronger.  More likely to get a great start out of Sanchez or Fister than Boston is from Lackey or Peavy. 

Hitting: Both teams bring great lineups to the plate.  Boston and Detroit ranked #2 & #3 respectively in team average in round 1.  Both teams had 38 hits (Boston played 1 less game) and Boston outscored Detroit 26-17 again in one less game played.  If that's not enough, Boston leads the postseason in stolen bases.  In a series that promises to feature great pitching, runners and runs will be at a premium and the ability to move runners into scoring position becomes even more valuable. 

Advantage: Boston

Saving Grace for Detroit - Their power hitters get to enjoy a much more hitter's friendly park at Fenway and Fielder should see more success with Fenway's short porch in right field.  They also have Cabrera and even injured, he's still one of the best hitters in the game.

Boston gets the advantage in hitting and although Detroit has a better starting rotation, they get an advantage with Detroit having to use their aces twice. 

Prediction: Boston in 7
(disclaimer: I'm writing this while Sanchez just finished 6 no hit innings)


National League
#2 St. Louis vs #5 Los Angeles

Let's start with a mock headline "Wacha, Wacha, St. Louis is warm and Fozzie about Michael Wacha's postseason"

Pitching: St. Louis was a close #2 seed in round 1 power rankings to the Red Sox.  But after round 1, they might deserve to be the #1 seed.  What prevented me from giving them the #1 seed was questions around their pitching depth.  Those are all but erased after seeing what Michael Wacha has been able to do so far, and Wainright has delivered as promised as an ace as good as anyone in the post season.  Had I written this before the series started like a responsible and professional columnist, I would give the pitching nod to LA.  But instead I'm a lazy, occasional blogger and I'm writing after game 2 has finished.  They say hindsight is 20/20 and 20/20 vision is wicked, trust me I have it, and I'm going to use it here to give the pitching nod to St. Louis.

Not just because they won the first two games, but they did it against Greinke and Kershaw and without using Wainright and it's not like Greinke and Kershaw had bad outings.  They had a combined 14 IP, 6 hits, 15 SO, 2 ER.  If you get two starts of that calibre and you lose both games, you are in a bigger hole than 2-0.  You are down 2-0 and with the question, how much better can you play?  Not to mention St. Louis has the best ERA of any team through the divisional round.

Looking back I would have saved Kershaw for game 3.  Even if you lose game 2 without him and are down 2-0, at least you are heading home with the best pitcher in the NL starting for you and giving you a legit shot against Wainright.  Now you are down 2-0 and turn to either Capuano or Ryu.  Neither pitched more than 3 IP and Ryu got hit hard giving up 12 earned runs in his only start.  

Advantage: St. Louis

Hitting: LA lead the divisional round in team average at .333, mean while St. Louis was second last with .209. They faired much better at OBP with LA posting 2nd best .390 and St. Louis posting a 4th best .294 thanks in part to St. Louis walking 17 times (2nd only to Boston's 20).  But the playoff rederick is, it's not the number of hits you get, it's when you get them and St. Louis is as clutch a team as anyone in October.  Despite the low average, St. Louis was still 3rd in runs scored.

Despite St. Louis being the most clutch hitting team in the playoffs, LA leads in all major hitting categories and you have to hope that over a best of 7, they will get their chances and put up some runs.

Advantage: LA

Overall, with St. Louis up 2-0 and beating Greinke and Kershaw in the process, and Beltran showing no signs of slowing down as one of the best postseason players in history, I just don't see how LA can come back.  At this point, I can only hope the rest of the series is as entertaining as the first two games.

Prediction: St. Louis in 5

That's it, enjoy the Championship Series and if you don't have a loyalty to any team, please just cheer for me to be right.  It will make future readings better when you can trust that I know what I'm talking about.

MLB Playoffs Power Rankings

Here it is, the first of 3 installments in MLB Playoff power rankings. I will make a new entry for each round.

First round are the 4 division series.  For the record I'm not counting the play in games since I don't believe in them, but that's for another entry.

#1 - Boston Red Sox

This was a close one between St. Louis and Boston and it pains me to be ranking Boston as anything else other than garbage, but given the circumstances, I have no choice.

Despite the first few games that have been blowouts, playoffs always comes down to pitching.  Boston's 1&2 starters, Lester and Bucholz have been as good as anybody in the league. What gives them the #1 overall? Consistency. They have been solid all year long. It does beg the question how well can they face adversity? But they have the intangible that no other team has and arguably the greatest weapon against adversity, Fenway Park.
Boston will no doubt have the biggest home field/crowd advantage in the playoffs.

1 negative - they might have the worst manager when it comes to crunch time and making those big decisions with the bull pen.

#2. St. Louis Cardinals

If finishing with the best record in the NL isn't enough and if winning 2013's best division in baseball isn't enough, then they have history on their side.

Cardinals are third all time in word series appearances with 18, including 11 wins, most recently 2011 and 2006 and experience pays off. Their lineup features hitters that understand that playoffs are about pitching and getting that one key hit a game. Just remember game 6 in the 2011 World Series.

Hitting wise they have more than their share of previous playoff heroes, whether it's David Freese or Carlos Beltran. And they look poised to step up again. Beltran is already getting named possibly the greatest playoff hitter of all time.

1 negative - compared to the rest of the teams, their pitching lacks depth. Adam Wainwright is a legit ace and can matchup against anyone, but the drop off from #1 to #2 is a question mark. Lance Lynn gave up 7 hits in 4.1 innings in game 2. Starting in game 3 is Joe Kelly. Who posted an impressive 2.69 era this year in 37 appearances. But he'll be starting against Liriano in Pittsburgh. PNC park in the play in game has been the best crowd we've seen so far. Can't wait to see this. If Kelly has a great start, they deserve this ranking. If he struggles, we could be poised for a first round upset.

#3 Detroit Tigers

This is a no brainer. Despite limping into the playoffs and only winning the AL Central by 1 game they boast the best 1, 2 combo in both pitching and hitting.  Don't need to say much here, Justin Verlander is their #2. A Cy Young award winner and arguably the best pitcher in baseball did not start game 1. Instead it was Max Scherzer who finished the season 21 - 3 and at one point was 19-1. I don't think any kid has even claimed a record that good on the playground.

Hitting wise, well they have Miguel  Cabrera and Prince Fielder not to mention Victor Martinez and Omar Infante who was a .280 hitter himself. That's a gauntlet to go through every 2 or 3 innings.

#4 Tampa Bay Rays

Call this a gut instinct, but pitching wins championships and the Rays have maybe the best starting rotation in baseball. Watching David Price in the tie breaker he sure looked like the pitcher of this year's playoffs who pitches on 3 days rest every time, there's one ever year. Alex Cobb had a great playoff start battling in a must win game on the road. You aren't going to have your best stuff every night but if you can win without it, you are looking good.

Tampa not known for offense has Evan Longoria and now Delmon Young who could become the unsung hero if Tampa can make it out of this round. Could be this year's David Freese or Cody Ross.

1 negative - they are playing Boston in Boston and outside of David Price, they don't have a pitcher to shut down lefties. Matt Moore was to be that guy but didn't show it in game 1. They also might have a weak bullpen. Rodney is not trustworthy on a good day.

This is getting long, should have just made predictions.

#5 LA Dodgers

This was a tough one because I really feel that the remaining teams are all very close. They all have a great #1 pitcher and some solid bats in the lineup. What they lack is depth in the rotation and they are all very young. In fact young pitching is a theme in this year's playoffs. But out of these remaining teams, dodgers have the best pitcher (Kershaw) and a well balanced lineup. Plus they have Puig who is only going to be more dynamic on a big stage. Biggest question mark, how will Greinke do? He's a great pitcher but outside of his one start with the Brewers he has no post season experience and struggled in game 2.

1 negative - momentum. They went on amazing run at one point they were 42-8 spanning just before the all-star break on. But they finished 5-5 over their last 10. Did they peak too soon?

#6 Pittsbugh Pirates

Who isn't cheering for the Pirates at this point? Unless you have loyalties to one of the 7 other teams (I hope you don't) you are jumping on this enormous band wagon.

Lineup with McCutchen, Alvarez, Martin and Morneau, it's impossible to cheer against them. Burnett maybe as a jays fan but that's about it. And that crowd? Forget about it. They way they rattled Cueto was amazing, can't remember ever seeing a pitcher so obviously affected as that.

Finally Gerrit Cole. Legit prospect and if he can have another start the way he did, he could be this year's Josh Beckett. 2003 Josh Beckett, when he broke onto the scene in the playoffs not Josh Beckett 2008 on.

1 negative - no experience. It can lead to losing your focus and making mistakes. We've seen this lead to them fading down the stretch in previous years. Hope the veterans on the team can lead them through it.

Side note, Morneau went from #33 with the twins because of Patrick Roy to #66 with the Pirates. Can't argue with that.

#7 Atlanta Braves

Outside of Tampa, the Braves are the best organization at producing young pitchers. Mike Minor looked great in his first start and they have maybe the best closer in tight games with Kimbrel. But who's going to be their ace that they throw out on short rest? And the bigger question, where are the bats?
Through 2 games there is more talk about Elliot Johnson being in place of Dan Uggla than talk about heroes. If the Uptons and Freeman don't step up, the streak of not winning a playoff series since 2001 will continue.

Blame the Sports Illustrated cover curse for the Upton's lack of production. Hope it doesn't get to Kate too.

#8 Oakland Athletics's

Every year they are a great story and prove that SABR metrics are real. What's not real is their chance to win the World Series.

Bartolo Colon is not a great match up if he's going to have to out pitch any other team's #1 or #2 pitchers. Cespedes become a household name at the home run derby but they will need more than that from a guy who hit .240 this year.
Their roster is good enough to win the west when you get to play Seattle and Houston and over 162 games OBP does pay off. But in a hyper concentrated month of ball when your opponents are only the best remaining teams, it's hard to produce the same way. This is why their regular season success hasn't been matched by post season wins.

That's it for the division series. Can't wait until round 2 when there's half the teams to write about and I get to back peddle on the ones I was wrong about.

Rush - movies about sports count as sports

Just saw Rush starring young Austrian Niki Lauda and a young Brit, James Hunt both played by actors.

In one sentence if I told you in this movie you would see F1 cars (the car equivalent of a jet), boobs, and gruesome injuries, you would run faster to the theater than Forrest Gump running like the wind blows.

In reality this movie has all of those things, but struggles to use them in a way that makes you leave the theater thinking you just watched the greatest racing movie of all time. Walking out, I felt more like E seeing the first cut of Medellin.  You know there's a good movie in there if only they weren't jumping shot to shot every 5 seconds.

Ron Howard fails to create a real sense of rivalry between the two drivers and fails even more at visualizing how talented these two were at their craft. In what seems as an attempt to always find the most artistically beautiful shot, you don't get any high speed, high danger sensations from the driving scenes. No scene or sequence lasts long enough to build suspense, and they make passing look like the easiest thing to do in F1.

Best way to sum this up is pros vs. Cons.

Pros
- Imagery looks great
- Writing is good. They don't over burdened you with over the top lines you might expect from a racing movie
- Contrast in character's personality is well displayed
- There is at least one scene that makes you feel sick

Cons
- Poor editing
- Nikki Lauda is made out to be an ass hole when really he's a racing legend. And now there is a driver's meeting before every race where driver's can voice their opinion on safety concerns. He pretty much started that.
- By the way Mario Andretti was a world champ and a great driver way to only drop his name a few times in the movie.
- No sense of timing, how long is a race? How far back are drivers from one another.

To summarize, if you're a big F1 fan and want an F1 movie, don't expect it. If you want a fast paced movie with lots of beautiful images and clever writing, and intriguing characters (most people do) you will enjoy this thoroughly. I would have shot the racing scenes in a time frame that more realistically depicts how hard races are and how patient you have to be to gain and pass other drivers, this is what made Nikki Lauda so good. Ultimately it just failed to build suspense that not only a great racing movie deserves but also the one that the real life story deserves.

I give it 2.5 tires out of 4.