As the Jays entered last weekend against the Yankees they also enetered a pivotal point in the season. Their first big stretch against the AL East and a chance to immediately erase the slow start to the season. The results in the standings were less than desirable as they dropped 2 out of 3 to both the Yankees and the Orioles.
Yes the bats continue to struggle and there is little tangible evidence in improvement at the plate. They have found sound home runs here and there but not consistent enough to produce enough offense to win. Currently they sit 2nd in home runs only behind the Yankees but they are still only tied for 9th in total runs scored and the teams OBP is still 2nd latest in the American League.
Now, me along with most of the city that is following the Jays are on the edge of patience. You have a percentage of the population that has gone over the cliff and written off the season along with Gibby and maybe even AA, but the majority of fans still lie somewhere between starting to panic and slightly losing hope, like Cameron Frye trying to roll back the odometer on his Dad's Ferrari. Hopefully this post and this season will end better than that did.
Why I'm not hitting the panic button (Yet):
1. 2nd time's the charm. I'm not going to judge a team or a player based on their first series against an opponent. There is a learning curve and adjustments need to be made especially for players switching leagues. What's the true test is the second time they meet, when teams have had a chance to watch video on pitchers and hitters and make adjustments based on their last outing. Watch a rookie pitcher next time they are called up. They may have a great first few starts, but as soon as they face a team for a second time, major league veterans adjust and a rookie goes from being the next big thing to back to the minors (Major League III). Baseball is a game of subtlties and it's the player that best perpares and adjusts that has the edge in a match up. So as we head into the first series against a repeat team, watch for the players that make the adjustments, those are the ones that are going to turn their season around.
2. Sings of a Turnaround. It's hard to believe the Jays are turning things around, they still cannot seem to provide offense in more than 3 innings in a game. Dickey's start against Baltimore, Dickey only gave up runs in one inning but the Jays also only scored runs in one inning although they did threaten in the 7th, 8th and 9th. The 2nd home loss against the Yankees they came back to force extras until an error caused them to lose the game. 2 of the games against Baltimore they came back. 1 loss was in the bottom of the 9th (error again) and one in extra innings. In fact over their last 14 games they've only lost 3 games by more than 2 runs and 4 of their 7 losses in that stretch were by only 1 run. Despite how bad they seem to playing they still have had a chance to win all these games.
3. World Baseball Classic. This is a stretch but it greatly interrupted their regular spring training and most players have a set routine. Pitchers have an inning count when they introduce new pitches. Hitters have number of at bats until they feel their timing is right. WBC threw a major wrench in that schedule for a lot of players, especially Lawrie who ended up hurt, it's not unreasonable to expect a slower than normal start.
4. It's not how you start, it's how you finish (as Zenyatta). You have to go back to 2008 when the Jays had as bad of start at 10-15. They finished that season 86-76 and if there was a 2nd wild card spot then they would have only been 3 games back. Jays currently sit at 9-14, you will need 90+ wins to have a shot at the playoffs, that means they need to go 81-58 for the remainder to have a shot, they have 44 losses to go which puts them in the neighbourhood of 1 loss for every 3+ games. This sounds like a tall task, and frankly it is, but once this team gets some production it would not surprise me at all to see them come close to winning every sereies. Outside of the Rays and supposedly the Jays there is no other rotation that is a deep enough to really shutdown an offense over a full 3 game series. As terrible as the Jays are playing, they still have yet to be swept. Not good enough for you, look at the 2007 Colorado Rockies, what a rag tag bunch they were. They started the season 9-13, finished 90-73 and made it to the world series.
5. Just for Change, be positive Toronto. We're so used to being negative and our teams losing, but the Leafs made the playoffs, so anything can happen. It wouldn't kill us to be positive and if we can believe that Toronto is on the verge of turning the season around, maybe Toronto is on the verge of turning its sports fortunes around. If nothing else, being positive will mean less fights in the stands and we won't lose any leverage on making fun of Vancouver for their post Stanley Cup Riots. Do it for bragging rights that we are better people.
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