Here it is, the first of 3 installments in MLB Playoff power rankings. I will make a new entry for each round.
First round are the 4 division series. For the record I'm not counting the play in games since I don't believe in them, but that's for another entry.
#1 - Boston Red Sox
This was a close one between St. Louis and Boston and it pains me to be ranking Boston as anything else other than garbage, but given the circumstances, I have no choice.
Despite the first few games that have been blowouts, playoffs always comes down to pitching. Boston's 1&2 starters, Lester and Bucholz have been as good as anybody in the league. What gives them the #1 overall? Consistency. They have been solid all year long. It does beg the question how well can they face adversity? But they have the intangible that no other team has and arguably the greatest weapon against adversity, Fenway Park.
Boston will no doubt have the biggest home field/crowd advantage in the playoffs.
1 negative - they might have the worst manager when it comes to crunch time and making those big decisions with the bull pen.
#2. St. Louis Cardinals
If finishing with the best record in the NL isn't enough and if winning 2013's best division in baseball isn't enough, then they have history on their side.
Cardinals are third all time in word series appearances with 18, including 11 wins, most recently 2011 and 2006 and experience pays off. Their lineup features hitters that understand that playoffs are about pitching and getting that one key hit a game. Just remember game 6 in the 2011 World Series.
Hitting wise they have more than their share of previous playoff heroes, whether it's David Freese or Carlos Beltran. And they look poised to step up again. Beltran is already getting named possibly the greatest playoff hitter of all time.
1 negative - compared to the rest of the teams, their pitching lacks depth. Adam Wainwright is a legit ace and can matchup against anyone, but the drop off from #1 to #2 is a question mark. Lance Lynn gave up 7 hits in 4.1 innings in game 2. Starting in game 3 is Joe Kelly. Who posted an impressive 2.69 era this year in 37 appearances. But he'll be starting against Liriano in Pittsburgh. PNC park in the play in game has been the best crowd we've seen so far. Can't wait to see this. If Kelly has a great start, they deserve this ranking. If he struggles, we could be poised for a first round upset.
#3 Detroit Tigers
This is a no brainer. Despite limping into the playoffs and only winning the AL Central by 1 game they boast the best 1, 2 combo in both pitching and hitting. Don't need to say much here, Justin Verlander is their #2. A Cy Young award winner and arguably the best pitcher in baseball did not start game 1. Instead it was Max Scherzer who finished the season 21 - 3 and at one point was 19-1. I don't think any kid has even claimed a record that good on the playground.
Hitting wise, well they have Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder not to mention Victor Martinez and Omar Infante who was a .280 hitter himself. That's a gauntlet to go through every 2 or 3 innings.
#4 Tampa Bay Rays
Call this a gut instinct, but pitching wins championships and the Rays have maybe the best starting rotation in baseball. Watching David Price in the tie breaker he sure looked like the pitcher of this year's playoffs who pitches on 3 days rest every time, there's one ever year. Alex Cobb had a great playoff start battling in a must win game on the road. You aren't going to have your best stuff every night but if you can win without it, you are looking good.
Tampa not known for offense has Evan Longoria and now Delmon Young who could become the unsung hero if Tampa can make it out of this round. Could be this year's David Freese or Cody Ross.
1 negative - they are playing Boston in Boston and outside of David Price, they don't have a pitcher to shut down lefties. Matt Moore was to be that guy but didn't show it in game 1. They also might have a weak bullpen. Rodney is not trustworthy on a good day.
This is getting long, should have just made predictions.
#5 LA Dodgers
This was a tough one because I really feel that the remaining teams are all very close. They all have a great #1 pitcher and some solid bats in the lineup. What they lack is depth in the rotation and they are all very young. In fact young pitching is a theme in this year's playoffs. But out of these remaining teams, dodgers have the best pitcher (Kershaw) and a well balanced lineup. Plus they have Puig who is only going to be more dynamic on a big stage. Biggest question mark, how will Greinke do? He's a great pitcher but outside of his one start with the Brewers he has no post season experience and struggled in game 2.
1 negative - momentum. They went on amazing run at one point they were 42-8 spanning just before the all-star break on. But they finished 5-5 over their last 10. Did they peak too soon?
#6 Pittsbugh Pirates
Who isn't cheering for the Pirates at this point? Unless you have loyalties to one of the 7 other teams (I hope you don't) you are jumping on this enormous band wagon.
Lineup with McCutchen, Alvarez, Martin and Morneau, it's impossible to cheer against them. Burnett maybe as a jays fan but that's about it. And that crowd? Forget about it. They way they rattled Cueto was amazing, can't remember ever seeing a pitcher so obviously affected as that.
Finally Gerrit Cole. Legit prospect and if he can have another start the way he did, he could be this year's Josh Beckett. 2003 Josh Beckett, when he broke onto the scene in the playoffs not Josh Beckett 2008 on.
1 negative - no experience. It can lead to losing your focus and making mistakes. We've seen this lead to them fading down the stretch in previous years. Hope the veterans on the team can lead them through it.
Side note, Morneau went from #33 with the twins because of Patrick Roy to #66 with the Pirates. Can't argue with that.
#7 Atlanta Braves
Outside of Tampa, the Braves are the best organization at producing young pitchers. Mike Minor looked great in his first start and they have maybe the best closer in tight games with Kimbrel. But who's going to be their ace that they throw out on short rest? And the bigger question, where are the bats?
Through 2 games there is more talk about Elliot Johnson being in place of Dan Uggla than talk about heroes. If the Uptons and Freeman don't step up, the streak of not winning a playoff series since 2001 will continue.
Blame the Sports Illustrated cover curse for the Upton's lack of production. Hope it doesn't get to Kate too.
#8 Oakland Athletics's
Every year they are a great story and prove that SABR metrics are real. What's not real is their chance to win the World Series.
Bartolo Colon is not a great match up if he's going to have to out pitch any other team's #1 or #2 pitchers. Cespedes become a household name at the home run derby but they will need more than that from a guy who hit .240 this year.
Their roster is good enough to win the west when you get to play Seattle and Houston and over 162 games OBP does pay off. But in a hyper concentrated month of ball when your opponents are only the best remaining teams, it's hard to produce the same way. This is why their regular season success hasn't been matched by post season wins.
That's it for the division series. Can't wait until round 2 when there's half the teams to write about and I get to back peddle on the ones I was wrong about.
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