This could the hardest power rankings to do to date, with the AL East standings a log jam it's hard to really separate the teams. With the help of nerdy stats and prejudice against my AL East rivals, below are the rankings as I want them.
#1. Tampa Bay Rays (Season Prediction #1)
A lot has been made about the Rays lack of offense through the first month of the season, but don't look now, they have actually scored the most runs of any team in the AL East, have had the hardest schedule to date (15 of 18 games were against teams .500 or better), and icing on the cake they are 4-0 in 1 run games, a crucial stat for a team that relies on pitching.
The only reluctance to having Tampa retain the #1 spot is they lost their 2nd best pitcher for the season. Matt Moore has undergone Tommy John and will be out for the entire 2014 season. Tampa has great depth at pitching, but relying on such a young rotation already losing Moore who's really young himself was looked to to be an anchor behind Price.
#2. Boston Red Sox (Season Prediction # 3)
Red Sox sit last in the AL East but are still 8-10 through the end of Saturday and only 2 games back of first place. They have certainly gotten off to a much worse start than expected with a team average of .235 (3rd worst in the AL) and 22% strike out rate (5th highest in the AL), they are lucky to only be 2 games back. Along with Tampa, they have had the hardest schedule of any AL East team. As mentioned in the predictions, the knock on the Red Sox is their key players are all one year older. This could be a reason for their slow start, but if they can hang in the pack, watch out for when they heat up.
What's keeping them in the hunt is pitching. Best xFIP in the AL at 3.4, lowest BB/9 2.5 (league average 3.4), 2nd highest IP from starters in the AL East and 2nd highest K total from starters in the AL. Jon Lester is leading the rotation and you would expect that Bucholz to be right behind him, but it's Jake Peavy carrying the load as Bucholz has the highest ERA of the starters and the lowest IPs.
Red Sox could go either way this year but for now I will say that they are staying close and once they are firing on all cylinders, they should be competing for top spot.
#3. New York Yankees (Season Prediction #4)
I had the Yankees ranked 4th to start the season as I questioned their pitching staff and how well the big off season over haul would work. Well their starters lead the AL in IPs, wins by starters, Ks, lowest walks by starters. In addition big off season signing Jacoby Ellsbury is having a huge start .365/.414/.476. The power hasn't been there with only 6 extra base hits, but he does have 8 SBs. Add his OBP and power from McCann, Beltran, Kelly Johnson and Soriano (combined 14 HRs) and 2nd highest team avg in the AL, not surprised they find themselves on top of the AL East standings.
Better than expected pitching, production from new signings, why aren't they ranked higher? There is still too much uncertainty.
1. Every other team in the AL East is playing poor baseball.
2. They've had the easiest schedule to date
3. Worst SRS (run differential + strength of schedule) in the AL East
4. Relying on production from unproven sources.
I'll expand on #4. Their rotation is being carried by import Tanaka who looks to be the real deal but won't be able to say for sure until opponents get to face him for a second and 3rd time and have a scouting report, plus it's too early to tell if he'll adjust well to the North American schedule (I think he will and lead the team in wins). They are also getting quality pitching from Michael Pineda who hasn't pitched in 2 years because of injuries, again too early to see if he's finally the pitcher they thought they were getting from Seattle. Regular staples in the rotation Sabathia and Kuroda are off to rough starts. Sabathia boasting a 5.19 ERA and opponents average of .269. If this team wants to continue to lead the division it's going to have to come from more than Pineda and Tanaka. Not to mention Nova has a partially torn ligament in his arm not that they are going to miss his 8.27 ERA but it still leaves them scrambling to find a replacement.
#4. Toronto Blue Jays (Season Prediction #5)
The Jays move one spot up this week from where I had them in the preseason. As a Jays fan this is going to be an emotional roller coaster of a season. As predicted they are hovering around the .500 mark but it's how they are winning and losing that really has them see sawing in the power rankings.
Biggest question coming into the year was starting pitching or lack there of. They have 8 of their 10 wins from starters (2nd highest in the AL) best ERA of any AL East team, 2nd best K/9, and the lowest HR/9 of any team in the AL. That's the good, now the bad. 6th worst xFIP (ie they are getting great defense), only have 103.2 IP from their starters through 19 games. Their starters although not giving up runs also aren't going deep into games (averaging 5.4 innings/start). They once again are relying heavily on a bull pen. Only difference this year is that they are leaving the game with leads and not down 7 runs. But they have the second highest IPs and BBs from relievers. They are on pace to burn out their bull pen like last year. What's even more concerning, they are carrying 3 catchers and what seems like an endless supply of middle infielders, if they can free up some roster spots and fill those with some bull pen help it will take pressure off the current cast. We've already seen two games this week get blown by the bullpen, they need help.
Offensively, the team is having similar issues to 2013. 4th lowest team batting average (one better than Boston), 5th lowest OBP. What's improved is their strike out rate 6th lowest in the AL. Thanks to much better plate discipline. 2013 Jays hitters swung at 30.5% of pitches out of the strike zone (8th worst in the AL) compared to 24.9% in 2014, good for 3rd lowest. If they keep this up, pitchers will be forced to throw strikes and when they do, the jays make contact on 88.1% of strikes thrown. With a team of this much offensive talent/ability the best thing they can do is make sure they aren't letting pitchers off the hook by swinging at balls. If they keep this up, average and OBP will go up and so will their spot in the rankings. For now, we will have to hang in with tight games and hope our bull pen can stay strong until the offense gets better. Meanwhile I'll try to not lose my mind and my hair when the bullpen blows the next lead, it's not totally their fault.
If the season ended today would Buehrle win the Cy Young?
#5. Baltimore Orioles (Season Prediction #2)
Most predictions had the Orioles taking a real step back this year and finishing at the bottom of the division. They are certainly playing to prove them right. They are not out of it by any means, sitting at 8-9 through their first 17 games and are tied with Tampa Bay 2 games back. Difference between Tampa and Boston, Baltimore has had the 2nd easiest schedule in the East.
This is a team who's strength will be power in their lineup, but their bats have started slow. 3rd lowest plate appearances in the AL, 6th highest K%, worst BB/K ratio, 3rd lowest OBP. They've scored 66 runs so far this season or 3.88/game. But that includes a 14 run game against NY, otherwise they drop to 3.25 runs/game. Meanwhile their pitching is giving up 3.97 ERA.
Bright spots, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton have given the team a chance with some great pitching, but will take more than 1 starter and 1 reliever to compete in the tough AL East. Chris Tillman boasts an era 1.71, yet the team's starters ERA is 4.53. No other starter is below 4.4 ERA. They have a combined 97.1 IPs from their starters 2nd lowest in the AL and only 5 wins (also second lowest). To add salt to the wound, off season acquisition Ubaldo Jiminez has been the worst pitcher on the staff, posting an ERA over 6 through 21 IPs.
Luckily for them it appears no team in the East wants to win the division so they are still in it, but if they don't sort out their issues early, all the experts will be right and they will be well behind the pack in the playoff race.
Well it's been an unusually slow start for AL East teams, which makes this hard to write but great as a Jays fan who right now I'm happy they aren't out of contention by the end of April like 2013. Only 1 team has a winning record against teams .500 or better and that's Baltimore, the worst statistical team of the bunch. I think that sums up how interestingly weird the start of the season has been.
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